Pages

Showing posts with label opportunity cost. Show all posts
Showing posts with label opportunity cost. Show all posts

Friday, June 30, 2017

Show Me The Economic Case For Democracy

Nancy MacLean is a liberal professor whose new book, Democracy In Chains, makes the case that James Buchanan's work is anti-democratic.  He's my second favorite economist so I really appreciate the fact that she has given him so much attention.  As far as I know, no other liberal has written a book that is primarily, or even significantly, about Buchanan.

MacLean is 100% correct that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic.  Unfortunately, from what I've read about her book, she doesn't attack, or even acknowledge, his economic arguments against democracy.  This is why I haven't purchased her book.  But then again, I do love the fact that she has helped to direct so much attention to him.  So I probably should purchase her book if for no other reason than to positively reinforce her decision to put a spotlight on Buchanan.  I want the spotlight to be as big and bright as possible!

Even though I'm confident that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic, it's entirely possible that I'm wrong.  Recently Michael Munger published a response to MacLean's book... On the Origins and Goals of Public Choice.  He did not agree with MacLean that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic.  Here's the recent twitter exchange between Munger and myself...


Buchanan preferred democracy?  Let's get historical...


1776...

The people feeling, during the continuance of the war, the complete burden of it, would soon grow weary of it, and government, in order to humour them, would not be under the necessity of carrying it on longer than it was necessary to do so. The foresight of the heavy and unavoidable burdens of war would hinder the people from wantonly calling for it when there was no real or solid interest to fight for. — Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations

1835...

Again, it may be objected that the poor are never invested with the sole power of making the laws; but I reply, that wherever universal suffrage has been established the majority of the community unquestionably exercises the legislative authority; and if it be proved that the poor always constitute the majority, it may be added, with perfect truth, that in the countries in which they possess the elective franchise they possess the sole power of making laws. But it is certain that in all the nations of the world the greater number has always consisted of those persons who hold no property, or of those whose property is insufficient to exempt them from the necessity of working in order to procure an easy subsistence. Universal suffrage does therefore, in point of fact, invest the poor with the government of society. - Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

1846...

The last point for consideration is the supposed disposition of the people to interfere with the rights of property.  So essential does it appear to me, to the cause of good government, that the rights of property should be held sacred, that I would agree to deprive those of the elective franchise against whom it could justly be alleged that they consider it their interest to invade them. - David Ricardo, Observations on Parliamentary Reform

1861...

It is also important, that the assembly which votes the taxes, either general or local, should be elected exclusively by those who pay something towards the taxes imposed. Those who pay no taxes, disposing by their votes of other people's money, have every motive to be lavish, and none to economize. As far as money matters are concerned, any power of voting possessed by them is a violation of the fundamental principle of free government; a severance of the power of control, from the interest in its beneficial exercise. It amounts to allowing them to put their hands into other people's pockets, for any purpose which they think fit to call a public one; which in some of the great towns of the United States is known to have produced a scale of local taxation onerous beyond example, and wholly borne by the wealthier classes. That representation should be coextensive with taxation, not stopping short of it, but also not going beyond it, is in accordance with the theory of British institutions. But to reconcile this, as a condition annexed to the representation, with universality, it is essential, as it is on many other accounts desirable, that taxation, in a visible shape, should descend to the poorest class. In this country, and in most others, there is probably no labouring family which does not contribute to the indirect taxes, by the purchase of tea, coffee, sugar, not to mention narcotics or stimulants. But this mode of defraying a share of the public expenses is hardly felt: the payer, unless a person of education and reflection, does not identify his interest with a low scale of public expenditure, as closely as when money for its support is demanded directly from himself; and even supposing him to do so, he would doubtless take care that, however lavish an expenditure he might, by his vote, assist in imposing upon the government, it should not be defrayed by any additional taxes on the articles which he himself consumes. It would be better that a direct tax, in the simple form of a capitation, should be levied on every grown person in the community; or that every such person should be admitted an elector, on allowing himself to be rated extra ordinem to the assessed taxes; or that a small annual payment, rising and falling with the gross expenditure of the country, should be required from every registered elector; that so every one might feel that the money which he assisted in voting was partly his own, and that he was interested in keeping down its amount.  
However this may be, I regard it as required by first principles, that the receipt of parish relief should be a peremptory disqualification for the franchise. He who cannot by his labour suffice for his own support, has no claim to the privilege of helping himself to the money of others. By becoming dependent on the remaining members of the community for actual subsistence, he abdicates his claim to equal rights with them in other respects. Those to whom he is indebted for the continuance of his very existence, may justly claim the exclusive management of those common concerns, to which he now brings nothing, or less than he takes away. As a condition of the franchise, a term should be fixed, say five years previous to the registry, during which the applicant's name has not been on the parish books as a recipient of relief. To be an uncertificated bankrupt, or to have taken the benefit of the Insolvent Act, should disqualify for the franchise until the person has paid his debts, or at least proved that he is not now, and has not for some long period been, dependent on eleemosynary support. Non-payment of taxes, when so long persisted in that it cannot have arisen from inadvertence, should disqualify while it lasts. - J.S. Mill, Considerations on Representative Government

1896...

If once the lower classes are definitely in possession of the power to legislate and tax, there will certainly be a danger that they may behave no more unselfishly than those classes which have so far been in power. In other words, there will be danger that the lower classes in power may impose the bulk of all taxes on the rich and may at the same time be so reckless and extravagant in approving public expenditures to which they themselves contribute but little that the nation’s mobile capital may soon be squandered fruitlessly. This may well break the lever of progress. — Knut Wicksell, A New Principle of Just Taxation

1933 (regarding)...

As was noted in Chapter 3, expressions of malice and/or envy no less than expressions of altruism are cheaper in the voting booth than in the market. A German voter who in 1933 cast a ballot for Hitler was able to indulge his antisemitic sentiments at much less cost than she would have borne by organizing a pogrom. — Loren Lomasky, Geoffrey Brennan Democracy and Decision

These thoughts, by such well-respected thinkers, are anti-democratic.  But perhaps it doesn't necessarily mean that their work was anti-democratic?

In 1954 the Nobel economist Paul Samuelson wrote a paper that correctly recognized that private goods and public goods are different. People can benefit from national defense, for example, even if they don't help pay for it. If the amount of money that people spend on national defense does not accurately reflect their true valuation of it, then the wrong amount will be supplied. So the problem is not that people wrongly value national defense. The problem is false signals. Samuelson correctly argued that taxation is necessary and that the government should supply public goods. However, he simply assumed that government planners would be able to correctly guess the true signals.

Samuelson's assumption did not sit well with Buchanan. In 1963 he wrote a paper that argued that, since people are paying taxes anyways, if they are given the opportunity to earmark their tax dollars to specific public goods, they'd have no incentive to give false signals. If your valuation of national defense is $1000 of your tax dollars, but you only earmark $100 tax dollars to national defense, it doesn't mean that you'll be able to spend the difference on private goods (ie clothes, food). It means that you'll have $900 tax dollars to earmark to other public goods (ie education, healthcare)... which you value less than national defense. Therefore, there's absolutely no incentive to give false signals.

From my perspective, Buchanan's paper is blatantly and obviously anti-democratic.  Why is it anti-democratic?  Because it's pro-market.  When markets expand, the alternatives contract.

Right now Netflix is in a market, but it is not a market.  Subscribers can vote for specific content, but they aren't given the opportunity to decide how to divide their limited subscription dollars among the unlimited content.  If Netflix did become a market, then people's spending decisions would logically subvert their voting decisions.  It wouldn't matter how many "thumbs up" a show received, all that would matter is how many subscription dollars it had received.  So it's logically absurd to prefer markets and democracy.

However, I acknowledge that Buchanan's one paper might not be truly representative of his work.  Let's zoom out...

*********************

Historically, legislative bodies, through which the preferences of individual citizens are most directly represented, have exercised more control over revenue or tax decisions than they have over expenditure decisions. In part this asymmetry has its origin in the development of democratic political institutions out of monarchial institutions. Representative bodies, parliaments, first achieved the power to restrict the tax-gathering privileges of the kings. Before taxes could be levied on the people, representative bodies were given the right to grant their approval. No consideration was given to the spending side of the account because public expenses were assumed to benefit primarily the royal court, at least in the early days of constitutional monarchy. Taxes were viewed as necessary charges on the people, but they were not really conceived as any part of an "exchange" process from which the people secured public benefits. It was out of this conception of the fiscal process that both the modern institutions and the modern theory of public finance developed. - James Buchanan The Bridge Between Tax and Expenditure in the Fiscal Decision Process

The emerging of modern democratic states dramatically modified the setting for the fiscal process, but only recently has attention been paid to the necessity of revising age-old norms. As royal courts came to be replaced by executives, and monarchies by republics, taxes continued to be viewed as necessary to sustain the expenses of “government,” with the burden of these taxes to be minimized to the maximum extent possible. Surprisingly little recognition has been given, even yet, to the idea that taxes must, in the final analysis, be considered as the “costs” of those public goods and services which provide benefits to the same people who pay taxes. - James Buchanan, The Bridge Between Tax and Expenditure in the Fiscal Decision Process

A second analytical principle emerged more than a century after Smith’s Wealth of Nations, and it was not explicitly incorporated into the norms for policy. But it may have been implicitly recognized. It is important because it reinforces the classical principles from a different and essentially political or public-choice perspective. In 1896, Knut Wicksell noted that an individual could make an informed, rational assessment of various proposals for public expenditure only if he were confronted with a tax bill at the same time. Moreover, to facilitate such comparison, Wicksell suggested that the total costs of any proposed expenditure program should be apportioned among the individual members of the political community. These were among the institutional features that he thought necessary to make reasonably efficient fiscal decisions in a democracy. Effective democratic government requires institutional arrangements that force citizens to take account of the costs of government as well as the benefits, and to do so simultaneously. The Wicksellian emphasis was on making political decisions more efficient, on ensuring that costs be properly weighed against benefits. A norm of balancing the fiscal decision or choice process, if not a formal balancing of the budget, emerges directly from the Wicksellian analysis. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes

The necessity of relating decisions on public expenditures explicitly to decisions on taxes through the political process, and of assigning a definite revenue category to each single expenditure was stressed by Wicksell in his classic statement of the individualistic theory of public finance (see Knut Wicksell, "A New Principle of Just Taxation," in Classics in the Theory of Public Finance, ed. 1R. A. Musgrave and A. T. Peacock [London: International Economic Association, 1958], pp. 72-118, but esp. p. 94. The original Wicksell work is Finanztileorietisclie Uizlersuchlungen [Jena: Gustav Fischer, 1896]). - James Buchanan, The Economics of Earmarked Taxes

The most sophisticated contribution was made by Knut Wicksell in 1896.  He explicitly identified the fundamental methodological error in the then-orthodox approach, and he combined positive criticism with normative suggestions for reforms.  Wicksell recognized the necessity of bridging the two sides of the fiscal account, and he noted the indeterminacy of any proposed principles that were limited to tax-side considerations. - James Buchanan, Public Finance and Public Choice

In addition to the uncertainty factor, which can be readily understood to limit the range of rational calculus, the single individual loses the sense of decision-making responsibility that is inherent in private choice. Secure in the knowledge that, regardless of his own action, social or collective decisions affecting him will be made, the individual is offered a greater opportunity either to abstain altogether from making a positive choice or to choose without having considered the alternatives carefully. In a real sense, private action forces the individual to exercise his freedom by making choices compulsory. These choices will not be made for him. The consumer who refrains from entering the market place will starve unless he hires a professional shopper. Moreover, once having been forced to make choices, he is likely to be somewhat more rational in evaluating the alternatives before him. - Gordon Tullock, James Buchanan, Individuality Rationality in Social Choice

The introduction of the debt alternative to taxation makes the bridge between cost and benefit more difficult for the individual to construct. - James Buchanan, "Fiscal Policy" and Fiscal Choice

Institutionally, earmarking provides a means of compartmentalizing fiscal decisions.  The individual citizen, as voter-taxpayer-beneficiary, is enabled to participate, separately, either directly or through his legislative representative, in the several public expenditure decisions that may arise. He may, through this device, "vote" independently on the funds to be devoted to schools, to sanitation, and so on, given the specified revenue sources. Only in this manner can he make "private" choices on the basis of some reasonably accurate comparison of the costs and the benefits of the specific public services, one at the time.  By contrast, general-fund budgeting, or non-earmarking, allows the citizen to "vote" only on the aggregate outlay for the predetermined "bundles" of public services, as this choice is presented to him by the budgetary authorities. - James Buchanan, The Economics of Earmarked Taxes

Conceptually, an "ideal" institutional arrangement might be that of allowing individuals to "pay for" governmental goods and services in a manner analogous to that which they have found most convenient for financing consumer durables. The quarterly payments of tax on declarations of income above or outside withholding probably tend, on balance, to promote "logical" response to the income tax structure. It is the absence of any conscious sense of transfer, the absence of any monthly or quarterly bill, that represents the questionable feature of withholding, and one that may tend to create a Puviani-type illusion.  - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process: Fiscal Institutions and Individual Choice

Only one of these questions seems relatively easy to answer. If the individual can make separate fiscal choices for each public-goods program, which a structure of earmarked taxes conceptually allows him to do, directly or indirectly, he is informed as to the alternatives that he confronts, at least to the extent that the payment institutions allow, and subject, of course, to all of the qualifications noted in previous analysis. The uncertainty that he faces is clearly less than that which is present in the comparable decision on a “bundle” of public goods or services, with the mix among the separate components in the bundle to be determined in a separate decision process or through the auspices of a delegated budget-making authority. If this mix is not announced in advance to the voter-taxpayer, he must try to predict the outcome of another decision process, in which he may or may not participate, a process that need not exist at all in the more straightforward earmarking model where all revenue sources are specifically dedicated. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process: Fiscal Institutions and Individual Choice

In a balanced-budget context, a decision to spend publicly implies a decision to tax, and a decision to tax implies a decision to spend. Only if the actual institutions of fiscal choice are organized in such a way that this basic truism is reflected in the alternatives confronting the individual participant can these uncertainties be minimized. Much of the modern criticism of the United States Congress is directed at its failure to allow simultaneous consideration of expenditure and tax decisions. - James Buchanan, The Bridge Between Tax and Expenditure in the Fiscal Decision Process

Nevertheless, the fact remains that such choice embodies a direct correspondence between private cost and private benefit, the characteristic that is stressed here, and the one that is absent, in varying degree, from individual choice in collective decision processes.  This central feature of market choice, rather than any implied assumption of rationality, makes individual behavior in organized markets useful as a benchmark from which we begin to assess collective choice institutions. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process

Similar behavior can be predicted on the spending side of the account. If the individual citizen were asked, in mid-1963, his opinions on proposed expansions in the federal space program, he could, roughly and in some fashion, measure benefits in terms of sport, national prestige, adventure, technological fallout, etc. But what were the costs? He would not have translated the costs of the space program into increased taxes. And for a very simple reason: the individual knew that he would not have to pay such taxes. The predictable result of a democratic choice process is the generation of budget deficits when borrowing is available as an alternative to taxation unless deficit creation is not somehow restrained by constitutional limitations. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process: Fiscal Institutions and Individual Choice

The Clay committee has at last discovered the fiscal version of Aladdin's wonderful lamp, and that henceforth all governmental “good things” such as super-super highways may come to us without our having to bear either the burden of taxation of the sufferings of conscience over increasing national debt. - James Buchanan, Painless Pavements: Highways by High Finance

Good things come at a cost, whether they be provided by the government or the grocery store. - James Buchanan, Painless Pavements: Highways by High Finance

The apparent splitting of the fiscal process into two parts was shown to produce potential gaps between preferred spending on public goods and services and preferred levels of taxation. Until and unless these gaps are eliminated, budget deficits tend to emerge from democratic decision processes. - James Buchanan, "Fiscal Policy" and Fiscal Choice

Under the assumption that public output enters positively into the utility functions of citizens, the expenditure by itself will secure support for the politician. The taxes, however, will reduce the disposable income of citizens, thereby affecting them negatively and reducing support for the politician. In a plurality electoral system, for given preferences and fixed tax institutions, the budget will be expanded so long as a majority would prefer the public service to the private goods they would have to sacrifice via taxation. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes

The restoration of the balanced-budget rule will serve only to allow for a somewhat more conscious and careful weighting of benefits and costs. The rule will have the effect of bringing the real costs of public outlays to the awareness of decision makers; it will tend to dispel the illusory “something for nothing” aspects of fiscal choice. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes

Randall Bartlett makes the same point, only he uses a visual rather than an auditory metaphor. In his framework, some tax forms have higher visibility than others. Starting with perfect visibility, taxes can be arrayed in descending order of visibility. In both his analysis and ours, changes in the institutional format for extracting revenues will influence citizen perceptions of the cost of government. See Randall Bartlett, Economic Foundations of Political Power (New York: Free Press, 1973), pp. 92-95. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner, Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes

**********************

Am I cherry picking?  Maybe.  But it's a fact that democracy and markets can't be equally effective at creating a bridge between choice and cost.  Take prohibition for example.  The majority voted for it.  Evidently lots of people wanted it... so they got it.  However, the amount of money spent on prohibition was not determined by voters, it was determined by government planners.

A = society's valuation of prohibition
B = the amount of money spent on prohibition
C = the difference between A and B

If Munger wants to argue that C is insignificant, then he should see markets as a massive waste of time and energy.  It's pointless for everybody to decide how much money to spend on milk when government planners already know the answer.

If Munger wants to argue that C is significant, but B is more socially beneficial than A, then not only should he see markets as a massive waste of time and energy, he should see that they provide the wrong answer.  It's incredibly undesirable for everybody to decide how much money to spend on milk when their answer is less correct than the answer already known by planners.

MacLean perceives that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic.  Munger has an infinitely better grasp of Buchanan's work than MacLean does.  Yet, for some reason, Munger doesn't perceive that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic.

From my perspective, Buchanan's work is anti-democratic because it's pro-truth.  Buchanan and Samuelson both agreed that false signals are a problem.  However, Samuelson was perfectly fine simply assuming that planners would have no problem correctly guessing the true signals.  Buchanan rejected Samuelson's assumption.  Buchanan correctly understood and endeavored to explain that true signals are a function of individual choices being directly informed/influenced by personal (opportunity) costs.

In his response/review, Munger wrote...

For Buchanan, “politics” is a means for groups to overcome the transactions costs of negotiating and enforcing agreements in groups too large to foster Coasian (Coase, 1960) bargaining arrangements.

It helps to break prohibition down into two questions...

1. Should alcohol be illegal?
2. How much money should be spent on prohibition?

The second question is only asked if the first question is answered affirmatively.  Coasianism is relevant to the first question, but it's really not relevant to the second one.  The second question can only be correctly answered by a market in the public sector.  Just like this question, "how much money should be spent on sci-fi shows?" can only be correctly answered by a market in Netflix.

So what does Munger mean that coasianism doesn't work for large groups?  Imagine that Munger and I are the only two people answering the first question.  He answers "yes" but I answer "no".  Voting wouldn't work... but arm-wrestling would.  So would coasianism.  We'd both get our phones out and open the coasian app.  He'd enter how much he'd be willing to pay for his preferred outcome and I'd enter how much that I'd be willing to pay for my preferred outcome.  After we had both entered our amounts, the app would show us each other's amounts.  If his amount was $100 dollars while my amount was only $25... then he would win.  Alcohol would be illegal for a year.  Since I didn't get my way, I wouldn't have to pay $25 dollars.  Instead, I would receive the $100 dollars that he was willing to pay.  Clearly the decision was made by facilitating a mutually beneficial trade.  The decision was made by a market.  It was made by a different type of market.  It was made by a coasian market.  It was made by coasianism.

Coasianism doesn't have an upper limit on the number of participants.  It works just as well for 2 billion people.  There might be technical issues to overcome but they don't diminish the desirability of coasianism.

With coasianism, people's choices are obviously informed/influenced by their consideration/comparison of the (opportunity) costs.  So Buchanan's work is relevant to coasianism.  But Buchanan didn't really focus on coasian markets.  His focus was on buchanian markets.

Coasianism should be used to decide whether alcohol should be illegal.  If coasianism determines that alcohol should be illegal, then there's the question of how much money to spend on prohibition.  This question should be answered by buchanianism.  Each and every taxpayer would consider/compare the (opportunity) costs of prohibition, and earmark their own tax dollars accordingly.

Each of the two questions is answered by each and every person having the chance to consider/compare/calculate the (opportunity) costs.

Making decisions without knowing/comparing/feeling the (opportunity) costs is really stupid.  Therefore, democracy is really stupid.  Buchanan was not stupid.  Munger isn't stupid either.  Neither is MacLean.  Munger and MacLean can both understand why democracy is so stupid.  But it should be easier and faster for him to do so given that he has a lot more economics under his belt.

Of course it's entirely possible that I'm wrong about everything.  Munger can certainly make the case that I'm wrong about Buchanan.  I'd be interested to see his case.  But I'd be far more interested to see his case for democracy.  When, exactly, is it beneficial for people to be clueless about costs?  When, exactly, is it desirable for people to have no idea what they will have to sacrifice for the things they want?


[update]


Monday, March 20, 2017

The Opportunity Cost Of Market Ignorance

Today on Twitter I saw this tweet from William Easterly...




Here's the image again...





It most certainly is a great illustration, by Bill Bramhall, of the opportunity cost of government spending.  A tax dollar that is given to building a big wall is one less tax dollar that can be given to The National Endowment For The Arts (NEA).  Then again, a tax dollar that is given to the NEA is one less tax dollar that can be given to public education and public healthcare and space exploration and environmental protection and... it's a long list.  Here's how I've illustrated this...




More public art means less community gardens and less computers for needy schools and less meals on wheels for the elderly and disabled.

For way too long I was quite certain that the problem with society is that people really didn't understand the opportunity cost concept.  But then I had to accept the fact that even Paul Krugman grasps the opportunity cost concept.  So does my favorite liberal economist John Quiggin!  What Krugman and Quiggin and even Easterly really do not grasp is the benefit of everybody deciding for themselves, with their own tax dollars, which trade-offs are acceptable.

Everybody deciding for themselves, with their own money, which trade-offs are acceptable?  Does that sound familiar?  It should.  It's pretty much the definition of a market.  Which means that Krugman and Easterly and Quiggin really do not grasp the benefit of markets.

So the question is... how do you effectively illustrate the benefit of markets?

Also seen on Twitter today...




Public broadcasting?  Isn't that what happens in a market?  Don't we all prioritize using our own limited money to publicly broadcast the relative importance of our specific needs and wants?

Somehow I ended up on this Guardian article... Does Netflix changing its rating system matter? No, because people are still awful.  Netflix is planning to switch from a 5 star rating system to a thumbs up/down system.  Cheap talk is being replaced with... cheap talk.  Stuart Heritage is happy to judge people on the basis of their cheap talk.

Why doesn't Netflix simply give its subscribers the option to divide their fees among all the content?  Every subscriber would decide for themselves, with their own fees, which trade-offs are acceptable.  Is Krugman going to share this idea with Netflix?  Nope.  Is Quiggin?  Nope.  Is Easterly?  Nope.  Because again, none of them really grasp the benefit of markets.

At the end of the Guardian article I saw my favorite part...





Why doesn't the Guardian give supporters the option to divide their contributions among all the content?  Every supporter would decide for themselves, with their own money, which trade-offs are acceptable.  Is Krugman going to share this idea with the Guardian?  Nope.  Is Quiggin?  Nope.  Is Easterly?  Nope.  Because again, none of them really grasp the benefit of markets.

Another Guardian article caught my attention... Yuval Noah Harari: ‘Homo sapiens as we know them will disappear in a century or so’.  How intelligent is Harai?  How intelligent are all those people who asked him questions?






Do you like this juxtapose as much as I do?  Can you imagine the caveman who used his time and talent to create that painting?  He noticed that other cavemen sure seemed to spend a lot of time staring at his painting.  And he thought to himself... if they use it, if they like it, then why don't they pay for it?  It's only fair.  Then he shouted, "Make a contribution!!!" and clubbed them over their heads and took some of their Wooly Mammoth meat.

Here we are 10,000 years later still not intelligent enough to figure out that markets can work just as well for public goods as they do for private goods.

Fucking stone ages.

The opportunity cost of market ignorance is immense.  But there's hope.  The Libertarian Party is giving donors the chance to dollar vote for their preferred convention theme.  Every donor can decide for themselves, with their own money, which trade-offs are acceptable.  Unfortunately, and strangely, "The Invisible Hand Ordering Things" really isn't one of the potential themes.  So maybe we shouldn't get our hopes up.

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Letter To Judith Donath

This morning I listened to Russ Robert's excellent discussion with Judith Donath about signals.  Here's the e-mail that I just sent her...

******************************************

Hi Judith,

I just finished listening to your talk on Econtalk.  I really enjoyed it.  It's a very fascinating subject.  Plus, you have a nice voice!  :)

I'm very interested in the relationship between signals and willingness to pay (WTP).  Let's say that Netflix gave me the opportunity to divvy up my $10/monthly fee however I wanted between all my favorite content.  This really would not be easy to do!  It's one thing to give my favorite content 5 stars... but it would be another thing to give my favorite content my fees.  This is simply because my fees are limited.  A penny that I spend on Chungking Express is a penny that I wouldn't be able to spend on The Man From Earth.  In economic terms... there would be a very high opportunity cost.

I refer to this system as the pragmatarian model.  In theory, the benefit of the pragmatarian model is that it would allow us to more honestly reveal/communicate the strength of our preferences to consumers/producers.  When we can accurately know the actual strength of each other's preferences... then it would allow society's limited attention/brainpower to be efficiently allocated.  With the current system... we don't accurately know the actual strength of each other's preferences... which means that society's limited attention/brainpower is being inefficiently allocated.

What comes to mind is the three wise men following the star.  The three wise men were following the star because it was so much brighter than the other stars.  It stands to reason that if the "wise men" (brainpower) in our society can't see how bright the "stars" (value signals) truly are... then they will follow the wrong ones.  Nobody truly benefits from the inefficient allocation of society's limited brainpower.

If it makes sense to apply the pragmatarian model to Netflix... it would also make sense to apply it to Amazon Kindle Unlimited (AKU).  AKU subscribers would spend $10/month but they could choose which titles they spent their fees on.  By far my favorite book in the world is the Wealth of Nations (WON) by Adam Smith...

It is thus that the private interests and passions of individuals naturally dispose them to turn their stocks towards the employments which in ordinary cases are most advantageous to the society. But if from this natural preference they should turn too much of it towards those employments, the fall of profit in them and the rise of it in all others immediately dispose them to alter this faulty distribution. Without any intervention of law, therefore, the private interests and passions of men naturally lead them to divide and distribute the stock of every society among all the different employments carried on in it as nearly as possible in the proportion which is most agreeable to the interest of the whole society. - Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations 

This is the Invisible Hand (IH).  Unfortunately, what Smith really never clarified about the IH is that the benefit of the outcome/allocation... depends entirely on the accuracy/honesty of people's payments.  

Even though the WON is by far my favorite book in the world... I've never even spent a penny on it.  Why buy the cow when I can get the milk for free?

valuation: $$$$$$$$$
allocation: $0

allocation <<<<<< valuation

The amount of money that I've spent on the WON is a LOT less than my valuation of it.  And my valuation of the book is so high because I perceive that there are no books like it.  Valuation is our perception of relative scarcity.

What's so tricky is that, in economic terms, we could say that I've derived a ton of consumer surplus from the WON.  However, deriving so much consumer surplus could also be considered theft and/or the free-rider problem.

What if the pragmatarian model was applied to AKU?   If the WON was one of the titles... then I'd have absolutely no reason for my allocation to be less than my valuation.  Each month I could spend my entire $10 fee on the WON for the rest of my life.  Each month my mountain of consumer surplus would be marginally smaller.  Smith has been long dead though... so who would get the money?  Who cares!?  I wouldn't be trying to influence/change/alter/modify/improve Smith's behavior... I would be trying to encourage more consumers to read his book and more producers to stand on his shoulders in order to create even better books.

Of course, if I'm the only subscriber of AKU who was spending so much of his fees on the WON... the change in people's behavior would probably be vanishingly small.  But the more subscribers who spent more of their fees on the WON... the brighter its value signal... and the greater the change in people's behavior.

It stands to reason that if intra-good valuation is important... then so is inter-good valuation.  Netflix would add books and/or AKU would add movies/shows.  Amazon Prime already streams movies/shows so you'd figure that Amazon would be able to get the jump on Netflix.

Each month I'd pay Amazon $20 dollars... but I'd be able to choose which books/movies/shows that I spend my fees on.  Chunking Express is my favorite movie and the WON is my favorite book.  Every penny that I spend on WON is a penny that I can't spend on Chunking Express.  OUCH OUCH OUCH!!!

I value WON more than I value Chungking Express.  This is simply because the supply of good things is subordinate to people's understanding of the importance of honest/accurate spending signals.

With the benefit of inter-good valuation in mind... it would make sense for Amazon and Netflix to also add music and software.  But why stop there?  Why not simply move all digital goods into the public sector but give people the freedom to choose where their taxes go?  For all intents and purposes... taxes are simply fees.

Then I'd be able to decide which is more important... the WON or space colonization.  When you clicked on my profile page you'd be able to see all my favorite public goods sorted by my valuation of them.  At the quickest glance you'd have the greatest grasp of what's truly important to me.  Well... at least as far as public goods are concerned.

With this system... we'd be able to freely share and read every book.  Books would be public goods.

With the current system... if you think about it... it's entirely backwards.  You buy a book before you read it.  If we think of buying as valuating... then how can you accurately valuate a book that you've never even read?  With books in a pragmatarian public sector... you'd valuate the book after you read it.  The greater your perception of the book's relative scarcity... the higher your valuation... and the greater your willingness to sacrifice the alternative uses of your tax dollars.

I've shared this concept with a few economists but they seem to balk at the idea.  In all textbooks... consumer surplus is a good thing.  Then again, in all textbooks... the free-rider problem is a bad thing.  Economists seem unwilling to confront this inherent/blatant contradiction regarding the importance/necessity of honest/accurate spending signals.

It would be wonderful if you could carefully consider the concept and share your thoughts on it.

Sincerely,
Xero

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Coherent Economics VS Will Wilkinson

Over a year ago, Will Wilkinson wrote this blog entry... Libertarianism and the Politics of Everything.  Here's the comment that I wrote on his entry...

*******************************

Coffee tastes like politics? Yuck! No wonder I don't drink the stuff!

You spend your money on coffee... I do not spend my money on coffee. We spend our money differently because we have different preferences. Human diversity is the basis of consumer choice. Consumer choice is economics. Economics is the opposite of politics. Economics is the opportunity cost of politics.

If coffee was in the realm of politics... then one of us would have to get screwed. Either my money would be spent on coffee... despite the fact that I can't stand the stuff... or your money wouldn't be spent on coffee... despite the fact that you love the stuff. Would you really want coffee to be in the realm of politics? No? Then why in the world would you want anything to be in the realm of politics?

Politics only exists because people don't understand economics. If people understood economics then they would clearly see the absolute absurdity of allowing a small group of elected officials to spend everybody's taxes.

The next time that you drink coffee... don't think about politics. Think about how you're pretty happy with your coffee despite the fact that I'm entirely free not to spend any of my money on coffee.

To be clear... the free-rider problem is a real problem... so we need the public sector... but we really don't need it to be a political realm. Libertarianism is the belief that we need to kick most public goods out of the public sector. Pragmatarianism is the belief that we need to kick politics out of the public sector.

*******************************

This morning in my twitter feed I found this...



And this...


Let's start here...

You start to accept that spending cuts are ultimately more about optimizing the composition and effectiveness of spending than about the overall level of spending or its rate of growth. - Will Wilkinson, What If We Can't Make Government Smaller?

Definitely!  Yes!  True!  But what, exactly, does government effectiveness depend on? Does Wilkinson know the answer to this question?

*******************************

When those most likely to benefit from social spending have a political voice, they demand more of it. - Will Wilkinson, What If We Can't Make Government Smaller?

When people get richer, they seem to want more government. In particular, they want more welfare spending. It’s mainly the positive relationship between rising demand for welfare services/transfers and rising GDP per capita that drives Wagner’s Law. - Will Wilkinson, What If We Can't Make Government Smaller?

Bill Niskanen said that “the longer-term challenge for those of us who favor limited constitutional government is to try to convince voters to reduce their demand for the services financed by federal spending.” However, the fact of the matter is that our well-funded and well-organized attempts “to convince voters to reduce their demand for the services financed by federal spending” so far have all failed. - Will Wilkinson, What If We Can't Make Government Smaller?

If we look at the world, what we see is that when people get richer, they want more welfare state. Maybe there’s nothing much we can do about that. - Will Wilkinson, What If We Can't Make Government Smaller?

Folks on the right need to consider the possibility that we’ve been wrong to see demand for government as the sort of dependent variable that can be manipulated through education or propaganda or political organizing or too-clever-by-half fiscal policy gymnastics or far-fetched constitutional amendments. The only variable the level of government spending clearly and reliably responds to over the long run is GDP per capita, and the relationship goes the wrong way. When people get richer, they want more welfare state. - Will Wilkinson, What If We Can't Make Government Smaller?


*******************************

Imagine that Wilkinson is at the grocery store.  He finds an employee and says, "I want coffee".  The employee replies, "Aisle 8".   Wilkinson goes to aisle 8 and finds a wide variety of coffee to choose from.  Why is there a wide variety to choose from?  Maybe it has something to do with the fact that he's free to choose which variety he believes will provide him with the most bang for his buck.   When he chooses a variety he then has to decide the quantity.  Will he fill up his entire shopping cart with coffee?  Maybe he'd consider the opportunity cost.

When he's finished putting items in his shopping cart... he goes to find a cashier.  He tells her, "I demand coffee".  And she says, "Yeah, great, I can see that!"  She just takes his word for it and he walks out the store?  Of course not.  If he truly wants/demands coffee, then he's going to have to take out his wallet and prove it.

This is so fundamentally basic.  Wants are unlimited, resources are not.   Willingness to pay (WTP) is how we ensure that limited resources are put to their most valuable uses.  Therefore, effective/efficient government depends on WTP.  Does Wilkinson understand this?

There’s an abiding faith on the right that there must be policy levers that can be pulled to reduce political demand for government spending. - Will Wilkinson, What If We Can't Make Government Smaller?

See that?  He said "political demand".  Which implies that he grasps that there are other types of demand.  But he doesn't really feel any need to point out or mention or highlight or discuss the important difference between political "demand" and economic demand.  Yet...

But if you’ve been following the proposals of this year’s presidential contenders, or glanced at the unrelenting spending trendlines, it’s hard say attempts at economic and political education have had any effect at all. - Will Wilkinson, What If We Can't Make Government Smaller?

Wilkinson knows that if he truly wants coffee, then he's going to have to pay for it.  He's going to have to actually demonstrate that he's truly willing to sacrifice the alternative uses of his money.  But why doesn't he apply this fundamentally basic economic concept to government?

Political "demand" really isn't the same as economic demand, and economic demand is the only way that we can know what people truly want.  Knowing what people truly want is the only way that the government is going to be truly effective/efficient.  

Libertarians half believe this*.  So, as a result, their attempts at economic education have always been half-assed.  Libertarians, by definition, are economically incoherent.  They say that determining true demand is necessary for coffee... but it's not necessary for defense. Because, evidently, congresspeople are partially omnisicent.  Or, resources are unlimited in the public sector.

Well... to be clear... anarcho-capitalists are not libertarians.  Murray Rothbard, to his incredible credit, grasped that knowing the demand for defense is just as important as knowing the demand for coffee...

*******************************

One of the most absurd procedures based on a constancy assumption has been the attempt to arrive at a consumer’s preference scale . . . Through quizzing him by questionnaires.  In vacuo, a few consumers are questioned at length on which abstract bundle of hypothetical commodities they would prefer to another abstract bundle, etc. Not only does this suffer from the constancy error, no assurance can be attached to the mere questioning of people. Not only will a person’s valuations differ when talking about them than when he is actually choosing, but there is also no guarantee that he is telling the truth. - Murray Rothbard

Individual valuation is the keystone of economic theory. - Murray Rothbard

The concept of demonstrated preference is simply this: that actual choice reveals, or demonstrates, a man’s preferences; that is, that his preferences are deducible from what he has chosen in action. Thus, if a man chooses to spend an hour at a concert rather than a movie, we deduce that the former was preferred, or ranked higher on his value scale. Similarly, if a man spends five dollars on a shirt we deduce that he preferred purchasing the shirt to any other uses he could have found for the money. This concept of preference, rooted in real choices, forms the keystone of the logical structure of economic analysis, and particularly of utility and welfare analysis. - Murray Rothbard

The crucial point is that when consumers spend, they benefit, because the expenditures are voluntary. The consumers buy product X because they decide that, for whatever reason, it would benefit them to buy that product rather than use the money on some other product or save or add to their cash balances. They give up money for product X because they expect to prefer that product to whatever they could have done with the money elsewhere; their preference reflects a judgment of relative benefit from that, as compared to another, purchase. In my own terms, spending choices by consumers demonstrate their preference for one, as compared to another, way of using their money. - Murray Rothbard

Since "benefits" are subjective, we cannot measure anyone's benefit on the market either, but we can conclude, from a person's voluntary purchase, that his (expected) benefit was greater than the value to him of the money given up in exchange. If I buy a newspaper for 25 cents, we can conclude that my expected benefit is greater than a quarter. But since taxes are compulsory and not voluntary, we can conclude nothing about the alleged benefits that are paid for with them. Suppose, in analogy, that I am forced at gunpoint to contribute 25 cents for a newspaper and that that newspaper is then forcibly hurled at my door. We would be able to conclude nothing about my alleged benefit from the newspaper. Not only might I be willing to pay no more than 5 cents for the paper, or even nothing on some days, I might positively detest the newspaper and would demand payment to accept it. From the fact of coercion there is no way of telling. Except that we can conclude that many people are not getting 25 cents' worth from the paper or indeed are positively suffering from this coerced "exchange."   Otherwise, why the need to exercise coercion? Which is all that we can conclude about the "benefits" of taxation. - Murray Rothbard

We have no idea how much the taxpayers would value these services, if indeed they valued them at all. For example, suppose that the government levies a tax of X dollars on A, B, C, and so on, for police protection—for protection, that is, against irregular, competing looters and not against itself. The fact that A is forced to pay $1,000 is no indication that $1,000 in any sense gauges the value to A of police protection. It is possible that he values it very little, and would value it less if he could turn to competing defense agencies. Moreover, A may be a pacifist; so he may consider the State's police protection a net harm rather than a benefit. But one thing we do know: If these payments to government were voluntary, we can be sure that they would be substantially less than present total tax revenue. - Murray Rothbard

In the first place, how much of the deficient good should be supplied? What criterion can the State have for deciding the optimal amount and for gauging by how much the market provision of the service falls short? Even if free riders benefit from collective service X, in short, taxing them to pay for producing more will deprive them of unspecified amounts of private goods Y, Z, and so on. We know from their actions that these private consumers wish to continue to purchase private goods Y, Z, and so on, in various amounts. But where is their analogous demonstrated preference for the various collective goods? We know that a tax will deprive the free riders of various amounts of their cherished private goods, but we have no idea how much benefit they will acquire from the increased provision of the collective good; and so we have no warrant whatever for believing that the benefits will be greater than the imposed costs. The presumption should be quite the reverse. And what of those individuals who dislike the collective goods, pacifists who are morally outraged at defensive violence, environmentalists who worry over a dam destroying snail darters, and so on? In short, what of those persons who find other people’s good their “bad?” Far from being free riders receiving external benefits, they are yoked to absorbing psychic harm from the supply of these goods. Taxing them to subsidize more defense, for example, will impose a further twofold injury on these hapless persons: once by taxing them, and second by supplying more of a hated service. — Murray Rothbard


*******************************

Unfortunately, Rothbard's excellent attempt at economic education was almost entirely eclipsed by his solution (abolishing/annihilating/destroying the government).   Rothbard never realized that the demand for defense could easily be determined by allowing each and every taxpayer to decide for themselves whether additional defense was worth more than the alternative uses of their own tax dollars.

Noah Smith wants Wilkinson to write a book.  Well...




How intellectually deficient would Wilkinson's book be if it didn't address Rothbard's economic criticism of government?  Would it be more or less intellectually deficient than his article?

With all of this in mind, Wilkinson's perspective on basic income shouldn't be a surprise...






Friday, September 16, 2016

Edward Glaeser VS John Quiggin

Who doesn't love a good juxtapose?

Edward GlaeserIf You Build It...
John Quiggin: Face the facts:

I'm pretty sure that Glaeser wins this round.

Am I biased?  Well yeah.  I'm biased towards markets... but I'm also biased towards Quiggin.  He's my favorite liberal economist.  So my biases cancel each other out.  Yup.  I love markets just as much as I love Quiggin.  Errrr... well...

Sooner or later the advocates of reform will have to answer the Edison-Blair question: “What works?” And what works is traditional public provision. Through all of these failed experiments, the public sector, much-maligned and chronically underfunded, has carried on with the hard work of educating young people, treating the sick and providing the vast range of services needed in a modern society, on a the basis of an ethic of service to the entire community, and not merely those who can pay for premium service. - John Quiggin, Face the facts:

Does public provision really work?

As I’ve argued previously, a serious consequentialist analysis suggests that war usually has more bad consequences than good. In particular, anyone who takes consequentialism seriously must reckon with the fact that war is a negative sum game. This means either that at least one side in a war has miscalculated or that the costs of war are being borne by people who don’t have a say in the matter. In addition, it’s necessary to take account of rule-based concerns about the effect of decisions to go to war in particular cases weakening generally desirable rules to the contrary. - John Quiggin, War and its consequences

In case you missed it...

This means either that at least one side in a war has miscalculated or that the costs of war are being borne by people who don’t have a say in the matter. - John Quiggin, War and its consequences

Which sounds very similar to this...

The people feeling, during the continuance of the war, the complete burden of it, would soon grow weary of it, and government, in order to humour them, would not be under the necessity of carrying it on longer than it was necessary to do so. The foresight of the heavy and unavoidable burdens of war would hinder the people from wantonly calling for it when there was no real or solid interest to fight for. - Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations

Which sounds a lot like this...

Economics teaches two basic truths: people make wise choices when they are forced to weigh benefits against costs; and competition produces good results. Large-scale federal involvement in transportation means that the people who benefit aren’t the people who pay the costs. The result is too many white-elephant projects and too little innovation and maintenance.  - Edward Glaeser, If You Build It… 

And...

*****************************

A second common feature of pro-war analysis is a failure to take account of the opportunity cost of the resources used in war. The $300 billion used in the Iraq war would have been enough to finance several years of the Millennium Development project aimed at ending extreme poverty in the world, and could have saved millions of lives. But even assuming this is politically unrealistic, the money could surely have been spent on improved health care, road safety and so on in the US itself. At a typical marginal cost of $5 million per live saved, 60 000 American lives could have been saved. This is morally relevant, but is commonly ignored. - John Quiggin, War and its consequences

Given the performance of the Bush Administration so far, it is tempting to agree with Harry that any money saved from the Iraq war would have been wasted elsewhere. But I think this is incorrect, in part because there’s no sign that the Bushies recognise a budget constraint. For them, the war is free: it isn’t even included in the regular Budget which is, in any case, massively in deficit with extra items regularly added to the slate. The bills will have to be paid in the end, but there’s no easy way to predict who will pay or in what form. - John Quiggin, Opportunity costs redux

Even at the cost of lining up with Friedman, I’d be pleased if the idea that war is a mostly futile waste of lives and money became conventional wisdom. Switching to utopian mode, wouldn’t it be amazing if the urge to “do something” could be channeled into, say, ending hunger in the world or universal literacy (both cheaper than even one Iraq-sized war)? - John Quiggin, War and waste

*****************************

See the part about "switching to utopian mode"?

Then I realized that they want a kind of unicorn, a State that has the properties, motivations, knowledge, and abilities that they can imagine for it. When I finally realized that we were talking past each other, I felt kind of dumb. Because essentially this very realization—that people who favor expansion of government imagine a State different from the one possible in the physical world—has been a core part of the argument made by classical liberals for at least 300 years. - Michael Munger, Unicorn Governance

I certainly can't blame Quiggin for switching to utopian mode.  Utopian mode is super essential.  I spend lots of time in utopian mode.   It's why I favor government expansion.  But do I imagine a State different from the one possible in the physical world?

Hey Munger... would it be possible in the physical world to have a State where people can choose where their taxes go?  Would it be more or less possible in the physical world to have a libertarian government?

However we spin it, a libertarian government would still be a command economy.  It's certainly true though that a smaller command economy is better than a larger command economy.  But is it possible in the physical world to have a smaller command economy that stays small?  If you're going to trust politicians to determine how much money should be spent on war.... then where, when, why and how do you draw the funding line?

Wartime spending needs are such that the threshold of decision can be crossed with newly imposed taxes or with substantial increases in rate levels of existing taxes. The additional real costs, in opportunity-cost terms, of the expanded spending program are accepted in the emergency setting. Once these needs disappear, however, the bias is shifted in favor of a continued high level of public activity, as opposed to a return to some pre-emergency balance between the public and the private sector. Not having to undergo the apparent sacrifice of real resources generated by new-tax financing, the individual is more willing, in post-emergency periods, to approve spending on the provision of services than he should have been in the pre-emergency fiscal setting. A corollary hypothesis is, of course, that the longer the emergency, the more pronounced this effect will be; that is to say, the older the tax, the more routine the institution, the greater the likelihood that it will be continued in existence. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process

Does a limited government sound like an oxymoron?  If not.... then what about a limited command economy?

The issue is not, in the end, one of public versus private. Rather it is the fact that market competition and the profit motive inevitably associated with it is antithetical to the professional and service orientation that is central to human services of all kinds. - John Quiggin, Face the facts:

Let's say that we created a market in the public sector by allowing people to choose where their taxes go.  Then we'd have a market in the public sector and a market in the private sector.  Wouldn't the issue be, in the end, one of public versus private?

What's the difference between public services and private services?

*****************************

Thus, considered in themselves, in their own nature, in their normal state, and apart from all abuses, public services are, like private services, purely and simply acts of exchange.  -  Frédéric Bastiat, Private and Public Services

Public services are never better performed than when their reward comes only in consequence of their being performed, and is proportioned to the diligence employed in performing them.  - Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations

The extent and range of public services are determined by the collective willingness of individuals to purchase them.  Services will be extended as long as the aggregate benefits are held to exceed the costs.  For the total of all public services, aggregate benefits should approximately equal total costs in terms of sacrificed alternatives.  Ideally, the fiscal process represents a quid pro quo transaction between the government and all individuals collectively considered.  The benefit principle must be applied in this sense. - James Buchanan, Fiscal Theory and Political Economy

It is these needs which are essentially deficits in the organism, empty holes, so to speak, which must be filled up for health’s sake, and furthermore must be filled from without by human beings other than the subject, that I shall call deficits or deficiency needs for purposes of this exposition and to set them in contrast to another and very different kind of motivation.  - Abraham Maslow, Toward a Psychology of Being

This means that the terraces of the Champ-de-Mars are ordered first to be built up and then to be torn down. The great Napoleon, it is said, thought he was doing philanthropic work when he had ditches dug and then filled in. He also said: "What difference does the result make? All we need is to see wealth spread among the laboring classes. - Frédéric Bastiat, What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen

*****************************

Public services and private services both fill holes.  There are lots of public and private holes that genuinely need to be filled.  Because society's resources are limited, it's a really good idea to prevent the government from filling the wrong holes.

According to Quiggin's Implied Rule of Economics (QIRE)... society's limited resources should be put to more, rather than less, valuable uses.  How do we prevent QIRE from being regularly and massively violated?

If people are willing to pay to use infrastructure, we can assume that that infrastructure provides social value. - Edward Glaeser, If You Build It… 

A. willing to pay to use infrastructure
B. willing to pay for infrastructure

The correct fix for crowded roads is to charge people for the social costs of their choices. Singapore instituted congestion pricing in 1975, and now operates state-of-the-art electronic road pricing, with tolls that vary by usage and time of day. London has now had congestion pricing for a decade. Both cities have eased traffic as a result. Yet America still acts as if charging drivers is a crime. - Edward Glaeser, If You Build It… 

Sure we can charge people for the social costs of their choices... but what are the chances that the charges will accurately reflect the costs?  Super slim.  This is because one price really does not fit all.  A cost, like a benefit, is entirely in the eye/mind/heart of the consumer.

************************

Simply considered, cost is the obstacle or barrier to choice, that which must be got over before choice is made.  Cost is the underside of the coin, so to speak, cost is the displaced alternative, the rejected opportunity.  Cost is that which the decision-maker sacrifices or gives up when he selects one alternative rather than another.  Cost consists therefore in his own evaluation of the enjoyment or utility that he anticipates having to forgo as a result of choice itself.  There are specific implications to be drawn from this choice-bound definition of opportunity cost:
 
1. Cost must be born exclusively by the person who makes decisions; it is not possible for this cost to be shifted to or imposed on others.
2. Cost is subjective; it exists only in the mind of the decision maker or chooser.
3. Cost is based on anticipations; it is necessarily a forward looking or ex ante concept.
4. Cost can never be realized because of the fact that choice is made; the alternative which is rejected can never itself by enjoyed.
5. Cost cannot be measured by someone other than the chooser since there is no way that subjective mental experiences can be directly observed.

- James Buchanan, Introduction: L.S.E Cost Theory in Retrospect

************************

Everybody perceives that they see society.  But this perception is wrong.  We don't actually see society.  What we actually see is a reflection of society. All we can ever see is a reflection of society. This is because all we can ever know about what's really inside people depends entirely on what they choose to reveal.  People's projections create society's reflection.

The accuracy of society's reflection is critical.  Command economies fail because the reflection is terribly inaccurate.  Market economies succeed because the reflection is far more accurate.  If we can truly understand why, exactly, there's such a huge disparity in the accuracy of the reflections... then it should be really easy to understand how to improve market economies.

If we have a market in the private sector and a market in the public sector... then we will be able to see two different reflections of society.  Will both reflections be equally accurate?  Of course not.

Under most real-world taxing institutions, the tax price per unit at which collective goods are made available to the individual will depend, at least to some degree, on his own behavior. This element is not, however, important under the major tax institutions such as the personal income tax, the general sales tax, or the real property tax. With such structures, the individual may, by changing his private behavior, modify the tax base (and thus the tax price per unit of collective goods he utilizes), but he need not have any incentive to conceal his "true" preferences for public goods. - James M. Buchanan, The Economics of Earmarked Taxes

In the public sector, people would not have any incentive to conceal their true preferences.  This means that people's public projections would be more honest than their private projections.  As a result, the reflection in the public sector would be more accurate than the reflection in the private sector.  This is why I favor the expansion of government.  To be clear, I favor the expansion of a pragmatarian government.  I definitely don't favor the expansion of the current government.

Let's take a closer look at one-price-fits-all (OPFA).  If we did charge for roads, what could we say about the people who were willing to pay the price?  We could say that their payment (allocation) was equal to, or less than, their perception of relative scarcity (valuation)...

allocation <= valuation

What are the chances though that a user's allocation would be equal to their valuation?  The chances would be super slim.  In most cases the user's allocation would be greater than their valuation.

valuation - allocation = consumer surplus

But what if, rather than charging people to use the road... we gave people the freedom to allocate their taxes to the road and all the other goods in the public sector?  Then people would no longer have an incentive to conceal their true preference for the road.

allocation = valuation

valuation - allocation = $0.00

Would tax choice truly eliminate all the consumer surplus in the public sector?   Let's imagine a two good public sector with tax choice...

1. Roads
2. Education

The tax rate is essentially the amount of money charged for these two goods.  With tax choice, taxpayers would have the freedom to decide how they divvied up their payment between these two goods.  If the tax rate was too low then it would mean that most taxpayers would perceive that at least one of these goods was relatively scarce.

Let's say that Frank has a tax obligation of $3,000 dollars.  He allocates $2,500 to education and $500 to roads.  Does his allocation equal his valuation?  Not if he perceives both goods to be in short supply.  If he perceives both goods to be in short supply then his allocation will be less than his valuation...

allocation < valuation

valuation - allocation = consumer surplus

Perhaps a diagram would help...



In this diagram we can see that, with user fees, Frank pays a lot more for roads than he pays for education.  Which intuitively seems a bit off.  Logically it seems pretty intuitive that the user fee for roads should be a lot lower than the user fee for education.  Right?  But what is the basis for this intuition?  Education is more costly than roads?  Or, education is more valuable than roads?  Or, the demand for education is greater than the demand for roads?  Perhaps the intuition looks like this...

education > roads

Education is greater than roads.  Ok, sure.  But how much, exactly, is it greater?

Thanks to the diagram we can clearly see that Frank's valuation of education is greater than his valuation of roads.  We know that Frank is willing to pay more for education than for roads.  But user fees can never be custom tailored to Frank.  So the user fees he pays for roads and education will never communicate exactly how much he perceives education to be greater than roads.  The same is true of all the other users.  As a result, with user fees, the proportion of funding for roads and education will never ever be optimal.  The balance will always be suboptimal.

With user fees the proportions can only ever be roughly correct.  But with tax choice, the proportions will always be 100% correct.

And I suppose that if I was as good at math as Paul Samuelson was then I'd be able to prove this with a beautiful model.  Unfortunately, I'm not as good at math as Samuelson was.  However, I'm far better at economics than he was.  In the grand scheme of things, being good at economics is far better than being good at math.  Maybe, in fact, there's something about being good at math that prevents a person from being good at economics.  Have any of the seriously good economists been seriously good at math?  Nope.  I don't think so.  So if an economist is good at math then don't trust their economics.

But perhaps I'm seriously overestimating my own econ skills.  It's entirely possible.  But until I'm proven wrong I'm going to continue believing that I'm right.

A. willing to pay to use infrastructure
B. willing to pay for infrastructure

The difference might seem subtle... but it's fundamentally important.

Glaeser is correct that willingness to pay is the only way to accurately measure the social cost/benefit of public services... but Quiggin is correct that public services shouldn't only be available to those able and willing to pay for them.

How cool is that?  They both win!  But Glaeser wins bigger because his article contains a fundamentally important economic truth that Quiggin, in another place and time, acknowledged, or recognized, at least to some extent...

This means either that at least one side in a war has miscalculated or that the costs of war are being borne by people who don’t have a say in the matter. - John Quiggin, War and its consequences
Economics teaches two basic truths: people make wise choices when they are forced to weigh benefits against costs; and competition produces good results. - Edward Glaeser, If You Build It… 
Until people are made to bear the full costs of their decisions, those decisions are unlikely to be socially sound, in this as in other areas of public policy. - Richard Bird, Charging for Public Services: A New Look at an Old Idea 

When it comes to war, we especially want people to make the wisest choices possible.  So it's imperative that we determine people's willingness to pay for war.

Last year Jeremy Corbyn made the wonderful argument that British taxpayers should be free to boycott the military...

Could the Minister consider whether it would be right to introduce such a measure? The Italian Parliament has draft legislation before it that would allow Italian taxpayers to divert a proportion of their tax from the armed services to peace building, and there are three relevant petitions before this House. Given the huge rebuilding costs that will fall to this country and others in Kosovo and elsewhere where there has been conflict, perhaps we should have a peace-building fund that could invest in conflict resolution, reconstruction and trying to prevent terrible wars and civilian conflicts. 
British taxpayers have a right of conscience not to participate in the armed forces in time of conscription and should have a similar right in time of peace to ensure that part of their tax goes to peace, not war. - Jeremy Corbyn, Taxpayers (Conscience)

Willingness to pay is the only way to prevent QIRE from being violated.  So if some people are not willing to pay for war... then they shouldn't be forced to.  Conversely, if other people are very much willing to pay for war.... then they should be free to.

What's so incredibly funny (not "haha" funny) is that liberals and conservatives largely oppose this idea.  How could they both oppose it?!   Ok, it's kinda "haha" funny as well.  Right?  This paradox is super easy to resolve...

It is impossible for anyone, even if he be a statesman of genius, to weigh the whole community's utility and sacrifice against each other. - Knut Wicksell, A New Principle of Just Taxation

Politicians have no clue which side would "win" and which side would "lose".

With the market we really don't think of "sides" winning or losing.  This is simply because there aren't any "sides".

From the economic perspective, is there any benefit to having "sides"?  Do we really need "sides" in the public sector?  Why can't there simply be organizations in the public sector that have the strongest possible incentive to effectively and efficiently serve people?

Public services are not exempt from basic economic truths.  It's a basic economic truth that incentives matter.  It's a basic economic truth that every allocation has an opportunity cost.  It's a basic economic truth that society's limited resources should be put to more, rather than less, valuable uses (QIRE).  It's a basic economic truth that people's willingness to pay the opportunity cost is the only way to prevent QIRE from being regularly and massively violated.  It's a basic economic truth that the pragmatarian model is the best way to reveal people's willingness to pay.  It's a basic economic truth that people's allocations should reflect their valuations.

Ideally, economists should do a really good job of informing everybody of these basic economic truths.  Ideally, the public sector should be based on these basic economic truths.  When it finally is, then society's reflection will be far more accurate and everybody's decisions will be far more beneficial.

Like I said in the beginning, John Quiggin is my favorite liberal economist.  He's my favorite liberal economist because, out of all the liberal economists, he does the best job of acknowledging/addressing basic economic truths...


But does Quiggin really need to be a liberal economist?  Do we really need "sides" in economics?   I really don't want to say that Quiggin is my favorite liberal economist.  I would really prefer to say that he's my favorite living economist.   But I'll only be able to honestly do so when his economic story is more coherent than Tabarrok's economic story.

It's pretty easy to test the coherence of an economist.  First have them explain to you why the free-rider problem is a problem.   And then have them explain to you why consumer surplus is not a problem.

Here's what will happen if they aren't coherent.  First they'll say that a big disparity between allocation and valuation is a bad thing and then they'll say that it's a good thing!



For example...



I think that if economists made the effort to get their story straight then there would be far more interest in tax choice.  In any case, there would be far more concern with the elephant in the room (a command economy in the public sector).