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Thursday, March 5, 2015

The Assumption Of Omniscience And Benevolence

Reply to reply:  Epiphytes and Economics

It might help to read this first... Thoroughly Fondling The Elephant

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As you are the only person claiming that "omniscience" is relevant or assumed, perhaps you need to provide some evidence to support that claim. Or we can just assume that it is yet another thing you have made up. (Having a fertile imagination is no substitute for evidence.) - Strange
Heh. Samuelson's paper, the best (most widely cited) defense of government, the one I mentioned right before exchemist's quote on omniscience... is the evidence. Yet, here you are asking for evidence. Either you didn't bother reading Samuelson's paper or you tried to but you didn't understand it.

If you didn't bother reading Samuelson's paper... then are you genuinely interested in learning? If you did try to read his paper... then that's a good sign but... progress is going to be painfully slow if you're afraid to admit when you don't understand something. I'm not a mind reader!

Hopefully you grasp that Samuelson's paper has to do with the free-rider problem (FRP) and public goods (PGs)...

FRP * PGs = ?

What would that equal? Here's the answer...

FRP * PGs = Prag

Unfortunately, this really isn't Samuelson's conclusion. His paper is the best defense of our current system of government. So we know what's on the other side of the equation...

FRP * PGs = Rep

We don't choose where our taxes go... representatives do. But you can't have the same exact equation result in two very different conclusions. Therefore, something is missing from Samuelson's equation...

(FRP * PGs) + ? = Rep

In order to arrive at the conclusion that I should spend your money for you... it must follow that I have access to your preferences. Therefore, Samuelson's equation looks like this...

(FRP * PGs) + Omni = Rep

Well... just because I have access to your preferences doesn't necessarily mean that I'll care about them. So we need something like...

(FRP * PGs) + Omni + Ben = Rep

This says that... when we apply the free-rider problem to public goods and throw in omniscience and benevolence on the part of government planners... then we arrive at our current system of government.

Samuelson didn't actually include benevolence... but clearly it's necessary. And in his paper he doesn't use the word "omniscient"... he just takes people's preferences as a given. In other papers he does use the word "omniscient" so yeah, the two things are synonymous.

Ben and omni are clearly absurd... but you need them to arrive at our current system of government. When you remove these two absurd conditions... you arrive at a pragmatarian system of government.

To be fair, Samuelson was just making a pretty model for our current government. In reality he didn't actually believe that congresspeople are omniscient or benevolent. He just figured that they could do a good enough job of figuring out people's preferences. He figured the same thing with command economies...

The Soviet economy is proof that, contrary to what many skeptics had earlier believed, a socialist command economy can function and even thrive. - Paul A. Samuelson
Right now you're under the impression that the government does a good enough job of supplying public goods. Except, where's your evidence for this? Are you surrounded by it? Is the public school you went to... and the roads you drive on... and the military who defends you and the police who ticket you... are these all your evidence?

In a market system... producers are by no means omniscient. When I produced this thread... when I supplied this additional option... I couldn't truly know how many people would spend how much of their limited time consuming it. My supply was merely a guess. Evidently it wasn't a bad guess because here you and other people are!

But if we look through this forum... it should be a self-evident truth that not all guesses are equally good. But in the absence of consumer choice... then how in the world could we possibly know just how good a guess is?

If we created a market in the public sector... then if your "evidence" is really good... consumer choice will confirm this.

What's important to understand and really appreciate is.... in a pragmatarian system... directly allocating your taxes is completely optional. Congress will still be there. If you don't have the time, or interest, to bother directly allocating your taxes then you'd be free to give them to congress to allocate for you.

So if you want to predict that it's going to be a huge mess and everybody's going to allocate their taxes "wrongly"... then you're also predicting that nearly everybody is going to choose to directly allocate their taxes rather than have their congresspeople do it for them. In other words, you're also predicting that barely anybody will have adequate evidence to believe that congresspeople are benevolent/omniscient.

What I'm trying to say is that you can't have your cake and eat it too. If you want to argue that the current supply of public goods is more than adequate... then you have to predict that few people are going to see the point of directly allocating their taxes. But if, on the other hand... you want to predict that nearly everybody is going to see the point of directly allocating their taxes... then you really can't argue that the current supply of public goods is more than adequate. How can it possibly be adequate when so few people have any evidence to believe that congress knows, or cares about, their preferences?

How fundamentally absurd would it be if we are supplying the services of congress to the entire country when nobody actually demands their services? The only reason that there wouldn't be any demand for congress is because people would derive far more value from the alternative uses of their tax dollars. This would mean that supplying congress results in the wholesale destruction of value.

If you'd like more evidence of the relevance of the assumption of omniscience... The Logical Absurdity of Libertarianism - Partial Omniscience. But having a basic grasp of economics is all you need to understand that there's a problem when the supply of goods doesn't follow from the preferences of consumers. You demanded evidence regarding the relevance of the omniscience assumption and that's exactly what I supplied.

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See also: Succeeding vs Failing At Other Minds

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Non Sequitur Economics

Reply to reply: Imagining Scarcity

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That's exceedingly glib, because "taxpayers should be allowed to choose where their taxes go" doesn't automatically follow from "consumer choice has extremely beneficial consequences". For one thing, consumer choice has costs as well as benefits; for another, just because choice works well for everyday consumer goods doesn't mean it'll work equally well for goods & services provided by taxation. (What happens, for example, if tax choice is instituted and each taxpayer realizes that their marginal tax contribution has only a negligible effect on how well the nation's army defends them personally, and each taxpayer therefore re-directs that share of their taxes to something else?) - satt

It's a non-sequitur? I don't think so. It's a non-sequitur when the supply of goods/services doesn't follow from the preferences of consumers. To take a pacifist's money and supply them with war is just as much a non-sequitur as it is to take a vegetarian's money and supply them with a juicy steak.

If you're so willing to assume that our country's defense efforts do more good than harm... then why stop there? Why not assume that steak does more good than harm as well? Surely we're not all that different?

In other words, if you're so confident of the conclusion that you're willing to leap to regarding people's preferences for public goods... then isn't it strange if that confidence suddenly disappears in terms of private goods?

If somebody is willing to forego a marginally greater supply of defense in order to gain a marginally greater supply of cancer research... then who am I to override their valuation? Am I sleeping next to them at night? Do I know what fear/concern/anxiety is most likely to rob them of sound slumber? In this case, then maybe, just maybe, it might not be exceedingly unreasonable for me to override their valuation. But anything outside of such an extremely personal and intimate knowledge of somebody else's preferences... is fundamental hubris. The kind of hubris that results in the worst kind of misallocations of a nation's most valuable resources.

Please be aware that, if you're arguing that everybody's going to be inclined to divest armies... then you're arguing that pragmatarianism would produce world peace.  If, on the other hand, you're saying that some exceptional individuals would be inclined to invest in armies... are you saying that some country will have a monopoly on exceptional individuals?  Or, are you saying that each country would have roughly the same percentage of exceptional individuals?  Or, are you saying that no two countries would have the same exact percentage of exceptional individuals?   If so, would exceptional individuals foot vote accordingly?  Would they all want to flock together?  And then there'd be a nation of exceptional individuals who would only invest in armies?  If this is true, then just how much taxes would they be able to spend?  A lot?

Imagine a baker who only spends his money on one ingredient.  Do you think his singular strategy would have consumers lining up for miles?

In case you missed it... we're all different. Economic growth and prosperity is a function of this difference. Blocking nearly all this difference from the public sector ensures that we get the balance of public ingredients/inputs really wrong.

If you're interested in critiquing pragmatarianism... it might help to read the FAQ.

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See also:

Succeeding vs Failing At Other Minds
Does Elizabeth Warren Know What Keeps You Running?

Sunday, March 1, 2015

A Test For PhDemon

Reply to reply... My Theory On Human Intelligence... And More...

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My irony meter has gone again... You say you would rather not waste... "valuable OP space"... so why are are most of your posts overlong walls of text of the most trivial drivel I've read in a long time? If you valued conciseness you would make a coherent point using focused language not pseudo-academic piffle. Neither would you waffle on with meaningless anecdotes, silly analogies and pointlessly invented words. - PhDemon
PhDemon, I have a theory that you're incapable of saying anything intelligent about my substance. I'd like to test this theory. So I'll conduct a survey of sorts that's based on substance from my blog entry...

1. All living organisms want to maximize their benefit. In other words, all organisms are compelled to choose the most valuable option (MVO).

A. trivial
B. incoherent
C. pseudo-academic
D. all of the above

Please explain your answer

2. A coywolf is trotting along with a goose egg in her mouth. She stumbles upon a roadkill. After some deliberation she exchanges the egg for the roadkill.

A. trivial
B. incoherent
C. pseudo-academic
D. all of the above

Please explain your answer

3. Because our ancestors were able to walk upright, this allowed them to carry more resources over greater distances.

A. trivial
B. incoherent
C. pseudo-academic
D. all of the above

Please explain your answer

4. Some of our ancestors were better at determining the most valuable bundles to carry.

A. trivial
B. incoherent
C. pseudo-academic
D. all of the above

Please explain your answer

If my theory is true, then you're really not going to want to take this test. This means that you'll either ignore it or try and up come up with a good excuse for not taking it. The thing is, the best excuse that you can can come up with won't fool any member of this forum who is moderately intelligent.

Either way I win. Either my theory is wrong and you do end up saying something intelligent about my substance. Or my theory is right and I've conclusively demonstrated that the real issue is that you're incapable of saying anything intelligent about my substance.

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See also: What Do Coywolves, Mr. Nobody, Plants And Fungi All Have In Common?

Cross Fertilization - Economics and Biology

Forum post... My Theory On Human Intelligence... And More...

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You really don't have to be here.  It's a bit sad that I have to point this out.  But if the moderators aren't going to do so then somebody has to.

Still here?  Great!  I'll take this to mean that you're willing to overlook my terrible writing and many other failings.  Thanks!  Your tolerance is really appreciated!

So here's my blog entry... What Do Coywolves, Mr. Nobody, Plants And Fungi All Have In Common?

It's a real roller coaster!  As you can tell from the title of this thread, it covers "my?" theory of why we're soooo smart.  It also covers several other topics in biology and economics.  If you spot something that you disagree with... or don't understand... then please feel free to bring it to my attention.  And if you know of any relevant articles or papers... then definitely bring those to my attention as well!

Rather than wasting all this valuable OP space redundantly summarizing all the content in that blog entry... I'll give you more bang for your buck by sharing some supplemental content...
Creative insights are often easier when theories from one field are explored in a different system as we do here, applying economic concepts to microbial interactions. - Joan Strassmann, Microbes swap for tiny goods in minuscule markets
....and...
A perspective borrowed from another field of research often offers insights for generating new hypotheses and approaches (1). Biological market theory argues that exchanges of resources and services among organisms can be analyzed in market terms, with individuals making strategic trading investments to maximize market gains (2, 3). However, it is unknown how applicable the theory is across diverse systems or whether it can be of use to predict how cooperative strategies evolve. - Kiers et al., Evolution of microbial markets
I really love this!  It's wonderful when biologists "borrow" economists' tools and economists "borrow" biologists' tools.  Maybe eventually we won't know whose tools are whose.  Hmm... I wonder how many biologists are married to economists?  There's got to be a few... right?  I'd want to hang out with them all the time.  Watch some "cross-fertilization" in action.  Errr... I mean... *protests too much*

Want more examples?  Ok... here's a biologist borrowing from economics...
Economists employ tools that can also be used to analyze the growth and body form of organisms in terms of evolution and ecology.  According to this approach, plants resemble factories because they also acquire raw materials, in this case CO2, water, light and essential ions, to fabricate value-added 'products', specifically progeny.  Like any enterprise using the same materials that other factories require to manufacture the same products, co-occurring plants compete.  Just how severely they interfere with one another depends in large part on the distinctness of the strategies used to obtain mutually required resources. - David Benzing,  Bromeliaceae: Profile of an Adaptive Radiation
And... here's an economist borrowing from biology...
It is sufficient if all firms are slightly different so that in the new environmental situation those who have their fixed internal conditions closer to the new, but unknown, optimum position now have a greater probability of survival and growth.  They will grow relative to other firms and become the prevailing type, since survival conditions may push the observed characteristics of the set of survivors toward the unknowable optimum by either (1) repeated trials or (2) survival of more of those who happened to be near the optimum - determined ex post.  If these new conditions last "very long," the dominant firms will be different ones from those which prevailed or would have prevailed under other conditions.  - Armen Alchian, Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory
That one is pretty easy for me to grasp... but this next one is a little tricky...
In this sense, the movement of a market economy differs from the process of biological evolution. A species evolves towards increasing adaptation to its environment by a highly parallel process. The state space in this case consists of the genetic code. But a species is not in one position in this space at any one time: it is at as many positions as there are individual members of the species, each with a unique combination of genes. A species represents a neighbourhood in gene space. It applies a parallel search procedure: millions of alternative designs are produced and compared each generation. Although a market economy can to some extent emulate this in the area of product development within individual competitive markets, the economy as a whole acts as a single processor. - Allin F. Cottrell and W. Paul Cockshott, Information and Economics: A Critique of Hayek
What?  Are firms all the same species with different/unique individuals?  Or are restaurants all the same species and banks another species?  Anyways, if you're looking for a good critique of market economics then that's one of the best!

For those of you who like knowing technical terms... there's a term for when economists study topics in other fields... economics imperialism... but I'm not sure if there's a technical term for when economists borrow tools from biologists and vice versa.  Is there?  If not, should there be?  "Biological markets"... is kinda close.  It's a good term to search for if you want to learn more about how biologists have applied economics to biology.

Have many of you biology experts ever thought about using economics to better understand/explain biology?  For those of you that haven't... I hope this material helps inspire you to do so!  Or at least to date an economist?

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See also: A Test For PhDemon

The Inefficient Allocation Of Competence

Reply to thread: Epiphytes and Economics

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Dywyddyr, it's verging on balls? LOL You guys have strange expressions.

Right now you can't shop in the public sector. Is this a good thing?

Case Incompetent

In this case, then perhaps at first glance it might seem like a good thing that we block you and your bollocks from the public sector. At second glance though... if you're incompetent... then what are the chances that you're going to have a lot of money to spend in the public sector? If each year you have $1,000,000 to spend in the public sector... then I'm going to wonder if you're really that incompetent. If, on the other hand, you only have $100 to spend in the public sector... then do we really need to worry about keeping you out of the public sector? How much damage are you going to be able to do with $100? What are you going to be able to spend it on that's so bad? Are you and every other incompetent person in the country going to spend $100 on the same exact public good? It's strange to imagine incompetent people all spending their taxes on the same exact public good. In order to worry about this scenario we'd have to also strangely imagine that competent people wouldn't adjust their own spending accordingly.

Case Competent

In this case, it wouldn't seem like such a good idea to prevent you from having the option to shop in the public sector. If you're competent... then you're not going to shop in the public sector if you don't really need to. Just like a competent farmer isn't going to shop at a clothing boutique if he doesn't really need to. In case you missed it, shopping in the public sector is entirely optional. You would still have the option to have congress/parliament/whoever spend your taxes for you.

Conclusion

In neither case does it make sense to prevent you from shopping in the public sector.

If we look at the fact that our current system prevents 99.999% of people from shopping in the public sector... then this prevents a lot of competence from helping to determine the supply of public goods. It's the epitome of throwing the baby out with the bath water.

Are there any consequences when we block most our country's competence from the public sector? Sure, we end up with too many competent people being underemployed for lack of better options.

Blocking competence from determining the allocation of resources logically results in the inefficient allocation of competence. To put it differently... if society's resources are stupidly allocated... then it's a given that intelligence is going to be misallocated. To put it more accessibly... if we elected 500 of the country's stupidest people to control the power of the purse... then a lot of smart people would end up doing really stupid things.

So to say that we should prevent people from shopping in the public sector because some competent people don't have as much influence/money as they really should... is like saying that we should prevent people from eating right and exercising because too many people are unhealthy.

Cause: blocking competence from the public sector
Effect: inefficient allocation of competence (competent people being underemployed)

Cause: preventing people from eating right and exercising
Effect: too many unhealthy people

If there aren't any adverse effects of preventing competent people from shopping in the public sector... then there shouldn't be any adverse effects of preventing competent people from shopping in the private sector. Except, you know the latter isn't true... so why do you think the former is?

Thoroughly Fondling The Elephant

Reply to thread... Epiphytes and Economics

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Well spotted. I now see there are plenty of references to "pragmatarianism" on the web, but they all link back to our friend Xero. Seems to be someone who has read too much Ayn Rand:grin:. - exchemist
Heh. There are more substantial points in this thread, and in other threads, that I'd like to respond to but... this one got a chuckle out of me. Ayn Rand is my BFF?

If you search my blog... "Ayn Rand" site:pragmatarianism.blogspot.com ... it might look like she's my go to gal... but in reality there are only a couple results where she's actually mentioned in the entry itself. The rest of the results show up because her name is included in my tag cloud/catastrophe/cacophony.

Not sure if you've seen this thread yet... LQ vs IQ?... but in the OP I mention the fact that my second linvoid occurred when I replaced my belief in libertarianism with my belief in pragmatarianism.

This linvoid didn't occur because I only read material which confirmed my belief in libertarianism. Nope. It occurred because I read material which challenged my belief in libertarianism. And not just a little material, but a mountain of material.

The material I read challenged my firm belief that we need some, but not much, government. In other words, I read anarcho-capitalist material. So why aren't I an anarcho-capitalist? It's because I also read material which challenged my belief that the free-rider problem is only relevant/applicable to defense, police and courts. In other words, I also read liberal material.

I simultaneously challenged my belief from completely opposite directions. And my belief, which was certainly quite strong, did not survive the challenge. It was not a pleasant experience. It was very disconcerting.

But I didn't become a liberal or an anarcho-capitalist. You know why? It's because the best arguments on both sides of my original position were really good. I couldn't ignore the best liberal arguments in order to become an anarcho-capitalist and I couldn't ignore the best anarcho-capitalist arguments in order to become a liberal.

So... I took the best arguments from both sides and put them together! Voila... pragmatarianism!

Now here you are saying that my problem is that I've read too much Ayn Rand! It's pretty priceless. My "problem" is that I've read too many of the best thinkers on both sides of Ayn Rand!

The fact that you don't recognize that pragmatarianism consists of the best arguments from both sides of the debate clearly reveals that you're not familiar with the best arguments on the other side of your position. And unfortunately, given how few pragmatarians there are, you're the rule rather than the exception.

If you haven't shown any interest in truly understanding your previous opponents' positions... then should I expect you to behave any differently now? Prolly not.

We're all blind men feeling different parts of an elephant and coming to different conclusions. What makes me exceptional is that I've been willing to feel other people's parts of the elephant. As a result, my grasp of reality... my picture... is far more accurate. This means that my conclusion is far better than the conclusion of anybody who hasn't been willing to more thoroughly fondle the elephant.

But this isn't about me "winning" the elephant fondling contest. It's about me figuring out how to convey the immense problem of our government not accurately reflecting the reality of the very best economic arguments. On the flip side, it's about me figuring out how to convey the immense benefit of conforming our government to accurately reflect the reality of the very best economic arguments.

Unfortunately, understanding and conveying are two very different things. I'm pretty sure that my skills at conveying aren't that great. Then again, they would have to be super great in order for me to successfully persuade people that it's a fact that both sides of the debate/battle have really excellent arguments. The arguments on both sides are so good that neither side will ever win... and even if one side did happen to win... we'd all lose as a result of disregarding, rather than incorporating, the losing side's excellent arguments.

Well... since I'm here I might as well take my millionth shot at conveying. The very best argument on the liberal side is the free-rider problem. It's really true that people want the most bang for their buck! So yeah, it's completely reasonable to strongly suspect that, in the absence of coercion, public goods might be inadequately supplied. Where it gets all kinds of wonderful is that the very best argument on the market side is that it's really true that people want the most bang for their buck! So yeah, it's completely reasonable to strongly suspect that, in the absence of consumer choice, public goods will be terribly supplied. When we take these two arguments and put them together... the result is pragmatarianism. We'll still have taxes... but people will be able to choose where they go.

The best liberal argument (the free-rider problem) is based on the best market argument (the fact that people want the most bang for their buck). The foundation of the best liberal argument is completely solid. And because its foundation is the best market argument... this means that the best market argument is solid as well. As a result, we're stuck between a rock and a hard place. In order to escape this predicament... we have to move laterally. We need some good ole epiphytic thinking!

Allowing people to choose where their taxes go is entirely consistent with, and supported by, the best arguments on both sides of the debate.

Perhaps it might be suspected that I'm highlighting a weaker argument on the liberal side in order to strengthen the position of pragmatarianism. Feel free to come up with a defense of government that has been cited more times than Paul Samuelson's Pure Theory of Public Expenditure.
Furthermore state spending is essential if you want a society that supports all its citizens through the rule of law and the avoidance of destitution. Assumptions of omniscience do not come into it at all - invoking such a thing is a straw man argument. - exchemist
Yeah, because it really would be fundamentally absurd if an assumption of omniscience was actually relevant. How crazy would it be if such an assumption was the only thing that prevented taxpayers from choosing where their taxes go? Really crazy right?

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See also: The Assumption Of Omniscience And Benevolence

Evidence-minded vs Open-minded

Inspired by this blog entry... Optimal Government Intervention... I came up with a survey of sorts...

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2

That's my LQ. Not sure about my IQ... just like most people I'm guessing it's above average.

So what's LQ? It stands for linvoid quotient. In math they use "x" as the go to variable. For language I use "linvoid". Not sure what the "quotient" is doing... maybe just hanging out for symmetry.

In this situation I'm using "linvoid" to refer to epic mind changes. I'm not sure if there's a word for an epic mind change so for now I'm just using "linvoid" as the placeholder.

So far in my life I've had 2 linvoids. The first occurred when I was around 11. That's when I exchanged my belief in God for my belief in evolution. The second occurred in my late 20s when I exchanged my belief in libertarianism for my belief in pragmatarianism.

What makes them linvoids is that they were both very unsettling experiences. Not unlike what Neo felt after he took the red pill.

The concept of painful reality vs comfortable illusion goes at least as far back as Socrates and the allegory of the cave....
You will recall the wonderful image at the beginning of the seventh book of Plato's Republic: those enchained cavemen whose faces are turned toward the stone wall before them. Behind them lies the source of the light which they cannot see. They are concerned only with the shadowy images that this light throws upon the wall, and they seek to fathom their interrelations. Finally one of them succeeds in shattering his fetters, turns around, and sees the sun. Blinded, he gropes about and stammers of what he saw. The others say he is raving. But gradually he learns to behold the light, and then his task is to descend to the cavemen and to lead them to the light. He is the philosopher; the sun, however, is the truth of science, which alone seizes not upon illusions and shadows but upon the true being. - Max Weber, Science as a Vocation
To make sure that I'm clear, what separates linvoid from any other mind changes is the significant amount of discomfort which results from exchanging a tightly held belief for a new one. Here's Socrates speaking of a released caveman/prisoner...
...when any of them is liberated and compelled suddenly to stand up and turn his neck round and walk and look towards the light, he will suffer sharp pains; the glare will distress him...
If you didn't experience significant mental distress and discomfort when you changed your mind... if the transition from an old belief to a new one wasn't very unsettling... then it really wasn't a linvoid.

The objective here isn't to debate our respective beliefs... although you're certainly welcome to do so. The objective is to conduct a survey...

1. How many linvoids have you experienced?
2. What were your linvoids?
3. Does a person's LQ mean anything?
4. Is there a relationship between LQ and IQ? If so, then what is it?

If you need more context, background, explanation or analysis then please see... Optimal Government Intervention

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I posted it in the following four forums... (sorted by quantity of responses)


In retrospect, I could have done a much better job wording/organizing the survey.  While I certainly enjoyed and appreciated the passage by Weber on the Cave Allegory... I probably should have replaced it with a really good example.  Here's a decent one that I developed in the process of the discussion...
Let's say that Bob always votes, rain or shine, because he strongly believes that voting is an extremely important civic duty/responsibility. One day Sally challenges Bob's strong belief (SB) by providing him with a huge pile of papers and studies on voting. If, as a result of serious digging, Bob starts to realize that the available evidence does not support his SB... then this will be very unsettling for him. If he modifies his belief to fit the available evidence, despite the considerable discomfort of doing so, then this counts as a linvoid. 
Even though my survey had lots of room for improvement... the outcome provided considerable food for thought.

There weren't really enough responses to come to any good conclusion regarding the average number of linvoids that people experience.  Plus, I think people who had experienced at least one linvoid would be more inclined to respond than people who hadn't even experienced one.  But, if nothing else, I did confirm that I wasn't the only one who had experienced a linvoid. 

A defining feature that distinguishes a linvoid from say... an epiphany... is that it feels really crappy.  This was my favorite description...
When I stopped believing in Catholicism. I was never very devout but it [Catholicism] was a huge part of my life since infancy. At first, it was a gradual discomfort but nothing major. I still pretty much believed in everything I had been taught until that point. But my cessation of belief happened abruptly during my senior year. I remember it feeling like I had been slapped, repeatedly and it made me almost physically ill. - Nanatsu no Tsuki, NS
Whether the pain is physical or mental, we all have an instinctual desire to try and avoid it.  When evidence is like a razor starting to slice into our strong beliefs (SBs) it's completely natural to try and protect ourselves from the harm.  It's a fight or flight situation.  I think most people choose flight.  They ignore the evidence or rationalize it away... which effectively removes the razor from their SBs.  The mind is extremely adept at protecting itself.  Saying yes to flight is to say no to linvoids.  

With fight on the other hand, there's at least the chance that the offensive evidence will be inspected.  When I first fought against anarcho-capitalists... of course I really didn't want to read what Murray Rothbard or David Friedman had written.  But I couldn't truly win without attacking their arguments.  And I really wanted to effectively protect my SB in libertarianism.  So I took the risk of inspecting the razor... and in the process of doing so I ended up experiencing a linvoid.

Given that linvoids can only occur when a SB is involved, it's not too surprising that government and religion came up pretty frequently as the subject of the linvoids. 

Regarding the third survey question... not very many people who experienced a linvoid felt that the number of linvoids that people experience is meaningful.  Can that be right though?

If somebody has had at least one real linvoid, then it stands to reason that they didn't bravely run away.  They chose the painful "truth" rather than the bliss of ignorance.  They conformed their SB to fit the evidence... and not the other way around.  How is this not meaningful?

Regarding the fourth survey question... if you have valuable evidence that contradicts many people's SBs... it stands to reason that you'll get more bang for your buck by sharing your evidence with people who have experienced at least one linvoid.  This doesn't guarantee that they won't bravely run away... it just guarantees that they don't always bravely run away.  It seems likely that this has something to do with some type of intelligence.  If anything, it would seem to be a different measure of intelligence.  And in certain cases, a much better measure of intelligence.

Looking at this topic somewhat differently... here's my comment on a LessWrong discussion post... If you can see the box, you can open the box

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Interesting topic! I'm a huge fan of "out of the box" thinking. But I prefer to apply "out of the box" thinking to the phrase itself by referring to this type of thinking as epiphytic thinking.

The phrase "epiphytic thinking" helps promote/advertise epiphytes. Did you know that the orchid family is the largest plant family? Around 10% of all plants are orchids.... and most orchids are epiphytes.

Epiphytes can help sequester as much carbon as trees do. They also help create a gazillion different niches which has has helped increase animal speciation/biodiversity.

Epiphytes can certainly help save the world. What are boxes good for? Helping you pretend that you're a robot?

Therefore...

epiphytic thinking > "out of the box" thinking

I'll apply some epiphytic thinking to your topic.

Let's say that we have a time machine and we travel back to a hundred years before people discovered that the earth was round. Our mission, which we've chosen to accept, is to try and persuade people that the earth is actually round!

It stands to reason that no two people are going to be equally willing to hear us out. In this sense... perhaps we can say that there's a continuum that ranges from the most close-minded person all the way to the most open-minded person. To help quantify this continuum we'll use a scale from 0 to 10.

The question is...if somebody is a 10 on this scale... does this necessarily mean that they'll believe us that the world is actually round? Just because they'll be really willing to listen to our very different perspective on the shape of the world... does this mean that they'll take our word for it? Not really... because this would imply that our open-mindedness scale was the same thing as a gullibility scale.

So clearly it would help to bring some evidence with us on our mission. Stronger evidence is always better than weaker evidence but let's just say that our evidence is good.

Imagine if we share our good evidence with 100 people who are all a 10 on the open-mindedness scale. What percentage of them are going to change their beliefs accordingly? Of course we can't really know the real answer... but it doesn't seem very likely that 100% of them would exchange their belief in a flat world for a belief in a round world.

From our perspective, we would know that anybody who didn't change their belief accordingly was making a mistake. Why did they make the mistake though? Was it a lack of intelligence? Lack of rationality? Lack of critical thinking skills? Was there some sort of bias involved? Or stubbornness?

Just like no two people are equally open-minded... I don't think that any two people are equally, for lack of a better term... "evidence-minded". Is there a better term? "Rationality" seems close but it doesn't seem quite right to refer to somebody as "irrational" just because our good evidence didn't persuade them that their belief in a flat world was wrong.

What's the point here? Well... at one point everybody was really wrong about the shape of the world. So perhaps it's a pretty good idea for us to fully embrace the possibility that we're all really wrong about the shape of... say... the best government. Because if it's really difficult to appreciate the fact that you might be wrong... then it's going to be really difficult for you to accept any good evidence that proves that you are wrong. Therefore, anybody who's a 10 on the evidence-minded scale will probably really embrace fallibilism.

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The composition of this book has been for the author a long struggle of escape, and so must the reading of it be for most readers if the author’s assault upon them is to be successful,— a struggle of escape from habitual modes of thought and expression. The ideas which are here expressed so laboriously are extremely simple and should be obvious. The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds. - John Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
Our creed is that the science of government is an experimental science, and that, like all other experimental sciences, it is generally in a state of progression. No man is so obstinate an admirer of the old times as to deny that medicine, surgery, botany, chemistry, engineering, navigation, are better understood now than in any former age. We conceive that it is the same with political science. Like those physical sciences which we have mentioned, it has always been working itself clearer and clearer, and depositing impurity after impurity. There was a time when the most powerful of human intellects were deluded by the gibberish of the astrologer and the alchemist; and just so there was a time when the most enlightened and virtuous statesman thought it the first duty of a government to persecute heretics, to found monasteries, to make war on Saracens. But time advances; facts accumulate; doubts arise. Faint glimpses of truth begin to appear, and shine more and more unto the perfect day. The highest intellects, like the tops of mountains, are the first to catch and reflect the dawn. They are bright, while the level below is still in darkness. But soon the light, which at first illuminated only the loftiest eminences, descends on the plain and penetrates to the deepest valley. First come hints, then fragments of systems, then defective systems, then complete and harmonious systems. The sound opinion, held for a time by one bold speculator, becomes the opinion of a small minority, of a strong minority, of a majority of mankind. Thus the great progress goes on, till schoolboys laugh at the jargon which imposed on Bacon, till country rectors condemn the illiberality and intolerance of Sir Thomas More. - Thomas Macaulay