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Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Pushing For A Pubmar

Reply to a reply.  Context: Is Pragmatarianism (Tax Choice) Less Wrong?

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It's really fine if you want to predict that pragmatarianism would cause great social upheaval. But you really have to appreciate that this prediction of yours is a double edged sword. You're essentially arguing that there's a huge disparity between the current supply of public goods and the actual demand for public goods. If you can convince me that there's absolutely nothing wrong with this disparity that you're predicting exists... then you completely take the wind from my sails.

Unlike yourself, I'm not extremely confident that this disparity does indeed exist. For all I know the guesses of congresspeople, for whatever reasons, are extremely good. If they are extremely good then there wouldn't be any great social upheaval if taxpayers could choose where their taxes go. Public education and public healthcare and defense would all receive pretty much the same amount of funding that they are currently receiving. No harm no foul. There wouldn't be millions and millions of public employees trying to learn how to do whichever public jobs were in greater demand.

Based on my research though... I really wouldn't be surprised if your prediction was correct. So let's predict that you're truly omniscient! You correctly foresee great social upheaval that would be caused by the correction of the massive disparity between public demand and supply. Are you really going to argue that this correction isn't worth it?

Fortunately, we aren't without precedent here. It's 1977 and I'm Deng Xiaoping and you're my biggest opponent. I'm arguing that we should create a market in China and you're arguing that doing so would cause great social upheaval. Well.... it turns out that we were both correct. Millions and millions and millions and millions of people migrated from their farming villages to the cities in order to work in a multitude of new factories that were started thanks to a massive inflow of foreign investment. As a result, millions and millions and millions and millions of people were lifted out of poverty and China quickly caught up to the US. For the extended version of this story please see... builderism.

To put it somewhat less scholarly... imagine that the government is paying somebody to kick you in the balls. If you derive benefit from this person's productivity... then, if we transitioned to a pragmatarian system, you'd allocate your taxes accordingly. If you want to predict that this guy who's kicking you in the balls would lose his job if we implemented pragmatarianism... then... you're arguing that he's doing something that nobody in their right mind would pay him to do.

Command economies misallocate resources... that's just what they do. Our government, with its hordes of lobbyists who represent diverse interests, isn't a perfect command economy but, given that taxpayers can't choose where their taxes go, it's close enough for me to strongly suspect that significant amounts of society's limited resources are being misallocated.

If your prediction is correct that pragmatarianism would cause a massive correction to the allocation of society's limited resources... then for sure it's terrible that so many people would lose their jobs... and I should hope that taxpayers would help support the smoothest possible reallocation... but you're going to have to come up with a pretty good argument to convince me that we're better off allowing massive amounts of society's limited resources to be majorly misallocated.

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Right now there aren't very many economists who are thrilled with the idea of creating a market in the public sector (pubmar).

To be fair, many free-market economists do some really wonderful and important work helping to educate the general public about how and why markets work.  Here's an excellent example...A Price is Signal Wrapped Up in an Incentive.  But what would happen if all these economists simultaneously attacked the government's Achilles heel?  In other words, what would happen if they all focused their intelligence and expertise on promoting a pubmar?  I'd sure like to find out!  Unfortunately... right now there's a very inefficient allocation of enthusiasm.

If market enthusiasts aren't thrilled with the possibility of a pubmar... then what are the chances that they would have been thrilled with Deng Xiaoping's idea of creating a market in the private sector (primar)?  Would they have jumped at the opportunity to focus their intelligence on promoting DX's proposed step in the right direction?  Would they have put their full intellectual weight behind the proposal?  Or, would they have perceived that the proposed step was too small to warrant their support?

Basically, how much credit would they have been able to take for China's incredible economic transformation?   If they wouldn't have been able to take much credit for millions of people being lifted out of poverty... then isn't it reasonable to wonder whether their market perspective has a blind spot?

Imagine your favorite living economist (FLE) on an Easter egg hunt with DX...

DX:  Look at this large EE that I found!  *points*   I'm pretty sure it's full of treasure!
FLE:  *nonplussed*
DX:  Want to give me a hand carrying it?  Not sure if I can carry it by myself.
FLE:  Naw, I think I'll continue carrying this roadkill instead.

If you didn't catch the reference then you should read... What Do Coywolves, Mr. Nobody, Plants And Fungi All Have In Common?

With perfect hindsight we know that DX's EE was full of treasure.  We can compare China during and after Mao Zedong and easily see that DX's small step towards freedom led to a genuinely great leap forward for China.

In theory, if somebody has an excellent grasp of markets then they will have x-ray vision that enables them to see the contents of any EE.  So why, when it comes to the possibility of a pubmar, aren't those with x-ray vision seeing lots of treasure?

Perhaps at first glance it might not seem like creating a pubmar would be as valuable as creating a primar.  On the primar side you have food... which might be a trump card... but on the pubmar side you have defense/offense.  As history has conclusively proved, you really don't want either one being controlled by the visible hand (exclusive valuation).

It wouldn't be a surprise, at least from my perspective, if creating a pubmar in the US would produce as much benefit as creating a primar in China did.  China's primar allowed them to quickly catch up to us.  If we created a pubmar... then we would quickly leave China in the dust... again.  Doesn't this seem really straightforward?  Evidently it isn't.  And it's not like I have much to go on as to why that is.

Here's what Arnold Kling wrote when I asked him about pragmatarianism...
I think that allowing taxpayers to allocate their taxes would be an improvement, but why stop with government organizations? Why not allow them also to choose from competing charitable organizations? That is what I propose in Unchecked and Unbalanced. - Arnold Kling, My Version of Race Against the Machine
What would he have wrote if DX had asked him about his proposal?  Maybe something like...
I think that creating four special economic zones in southeastern China would be an improvement, but why stop with southeastern China?  Why not turn China into one giant SEZ?  That is what I propose in China: Unchecked and Unbalanced.
What if China's first small step in the right direction had hinged entirely on Kling's full support?  If so, then the first small step wouldn't have been taken because Kling's support was allocated to bigger steps.  Here's the best illustration that I was able to come up with for this situation...




Who's S?

Hot Chip might argue that this is a coordination problem.  Well yeah.  It's a coordination problem but the solution, at least in this case, probably isn't government.  The solution is successful persuasion!  Which of course depends on accurate information.

Here are some pro-market names that are more or less recognizable...




Why are they pushing where they are pushing?  Why aren't they pushing where I'm pushing?  Am I pushing in the wrong place or are they?  How much credit would they have been able to take for China's incredible progress?  There are quite a few names that, in comparison to Kling, are pushing for much bigger changes.  It doesn't seem likely that they would have been able to take much credit for China's progress.    

According to Newton's Third Law... for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.  If everybody on the list started pushing for a pubmar... then what would the equal and opposite reaction be?  How would Paul Krugman react?

Right now Krugman doesn't have to react to the possibility of a pubmar because there isn't enough intellectual support behind the idea.  How much intellectual support would it take in order for Krugman to react?  And what in the world would his reaction be?   Wouldn't you like to know?  If so, then ask your favorite economist to explain why they aren't pushing for a pubmar.  Let me know what they say.  

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Liberal Lilith's Sexy Benefit Curves

Context:  Is Pragmatarianism (Tax Choice) Less Wrong?

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Note also that nothing in your system deals with the problem of public goods- people can benefit from something without paying for it and for many goods that's a natural situation. - JoshuaZ

Unless everybody boycotted the IRS and/or congress out of existence, then people would still pay taxes in a pragmatarian system.  The entirely reasonable economic argument for taxes is the free-rider problem.  The entirely reasonable economic argument for allowing people to choose where their taxes go is that they know, way better than their impersonal shoppers do, what benefits them.

It's certainly true through that in a pragmatarian system people are going to benefit from public goods that they haven't contributed to.  But is this a problem?

Let's consider Lilith's benefit curves...






So sexy or no sexy?

I sure hope the graph/chart is self-explanatory but it probably isn't.  Benefit and supply are both on scales from 0 (minimum) to 10 (maximum).  If the supply of environmental protection and national healthcare decreases... then so too would the amount of benefit that Lilith derives from them...but not equally so.  With defense however, a decrease in supply has no impact on the amount of benefit that Lilith derives from it.

Clearly Lilith is a pacifist and hardcore environmentalist... with moderate concern for healthcare.  Obviously she's going to have other public concerns, but these three public goods should suffice for illustrative purposes.

Can you predict how Lilith would allocate her taxes if the supply of environment, healthcare and defense were all at a 5?  It should be pretty straightforward that she'd maximize her benefit by giving all her taxes to the EPA.   In fact, the only time she wouldn't spend her taxes on the EPA would be if the supply was already at a 10.  In this case she'd spend her taxes on healthcare.

What are the chances though that the supply of environment would ever be at a 10 for Lilith?  If we imagine that she values the environment more than she values all the other public goods... then it would be impossible for the supply of environment to ever be at a 10 for her.  She'd always want more environment than anybody else.  Kinda like right now I'm the one person who wants more pragmatarianism than anybody else.  Which doesn't say much because nearly everybody else doesn't want any pragmatarianism.

In terms of the environment... Lilith is the exception rather than the rule.  We're dealing with a bell curve here.  Most people are going to value the environment less than Lilith does... and a few wackos aren't going to value it at all.  In economic terms... for a few people like Lilith the opportunity costs of protecting the environment will never be too high, for most people they will sometimes be too high... and for a few numskulls they will always be too high.

When we zoom out from an individual's benefit curves.... and consider the aggregate... we see an incredibly complex complementarity.  Think of a mighty Ficus tree with beautiful buttresses.  Lilith represents the part of the buttress that's furthest from the trunk.  On the complete opposite side of the tree you'd find conservative Conrad lending his support.  Most people would provide their support closer to the trunk but if all the support was close to the trunk then the tree wouldn't have nearly as much stability.

So it's really not a problem that, in a pragmatarian system, people would benefit from public goods that they hadn't contributed to.  The inherent differences and similarities of taxpayers, as expressed through their choices, which would reflect their opportunity costs, would provide our country with the most robust root system possible.  As a result of this incredibly strong and extensive root system, economic growth and prosperity would be maximized.

What's the alternative?  Allow congresspeople to continue treating our country like their own personal bonsai tree?  No thanks.  The opportunity cost of our current system is impossibly high.

If you need this explained somewhat differently... Value Deviation From The Crowd.

Friday, February 13, 2015

Would Obama Give His Taxes To Elizabeth Warren?

My previous entry was pretty wonderful... Does Elizabeth Warren Know What Keeps You Running?  It was so wonderful that I want more!

In a pragmatarian system people would have the following three options...

1. They could allocate their taxes themselves
2. They could give their taxes to congress (impersonal shoppers)
3. They could give their taxes to specific congresspeople (ie Elizabeth Warren)

Well... I don't honestly know if the third option would be available.  What do you think?  If it turned out that there wasn't any demand for the second option... then clearly there wouldn't be any demand for the third option.  If you have absolutely no interest in having congress allocate your taxes... then chances are extremely good that you wouldn't have any interest in having Warren or any other congressperson allocate your taxes.

In order for the third option to be available... we'd have to imagine at least some demand for the second option.  But it can't be perfectly... errr... "happy" demand... it's got to be "unhappy" demand.  To get my drift just picture some liberal named Lilith who really doesn't have the time or interest to allocate her taxes herself... but she hates the thought of allowing slimy republican congresspeople to have even the tiniest amount of influence on how her taxes are allocated.  Lilith really wants the service, but she really wishes it was a lot better (a closer match to her preferences).

Woah, did you get goosebumps?  I sure did.  It's a wonderful insight into why markets lead to a far greater variety of products and services than command economies do.  And when there's a greater variety of products and services then marginal improvements are made at an incredibly faster rate than would occur in command economies.  It's modular vs monolithic.

Of course this variation isn't going to occur if Lilith is the only unhappy camper.  There have to be enough Liliths in order for Elizabeth Warren to have a really strong suspicion that she'd have a lot more money to allocate if she wasn't bundled together with people like Todd Akin.

For sure this is a two way street.  For every Lilith there would be a Conrad who really hated the thought of the likes of Elizabeth Warren spending even one cent of his hard-earned money on counterproductive social programs.

But if there were enough Liliths and Conrads... would congress just split in half?  Would there be a bundle of conservative impersonal shoppers and a bundle of liberal impersonal shoppers?

Let me throw a wrench into our analysis by pointing out that congress doesn't just allocate taxes... they also write laws.  Errr... do these two things really need to be bundled together?  Would you want the person operating on you to be a jack of all trades and a master of none?  Probably... not.

It stands to reason that congresspeople would be logically allocated.  Those with a comparative legal advantage would be split off into a separate organization dedicated to writing laws.  Those with a comparative impersonal shopping advantage would be split off into a separate organization dedicated to impersonal shopping.  

So rather than having a congress... we'd have a Department of Law (DoL) and a Department of Impersonal Shopping (DoIS).

I don't think we'd have to elect people to serve in the DoL... do you?  If the DoL produced crappy laws then they'd go bankrupt.   No organizations want to go bankrupt.  Therefore, the DoL's desire to maximize, rather than minimize, its revenue would provide them with the maximum possible incentive to produce laws that maximized society's benefit.

With the DoIS though... I think we would probably still elect the impersonal shoppers.  But what about Lilith and Conrad?  Would they be happy enough if they could give their taxes to a bundle of impersonal shoppers who roughly shared their preferences?  Or would they prefer the possibly much greater happiness of being able to give their taxes to whichever impersonal shopper was the closest match to their own unique preferences?  I'm pretty that Lilith and Conrad, as different as their preferences are, would both want more, rather than less, happiness.

Woah!  Do you see what happened there?  Impersonal shopping became a little less impersonal.  Perhaps it wouldn't be entirely unreasonable to even change the name of the DoIS.  Rather than calling it the "Department of Impersonal Shopping" we could call it the "Department of Personal Shopping" (DoPS).

Something else pretty momentous happened.  Political parties became pointless!  

Did I blow your mind?  If so, then I sincerely apologize.  It's perfectly understandable if you need a lot of time to process this.

Maybe it would help to try and predict what Obama would do...

1. He would allocate his taxes himself
2. He would give his taxes to the DoPS
3. He would give his taxes to the most personal shopper (Elizabeth Warren?)

I think he'd allocate his taxes himself.  Boy, wouldn't you like to know how he allocated his taxes?  Which public problems does he perceive to be the most pressing?  Rather than having only his words to go on... we'd be able to observe his actual actions.  No pressure Obama!

Maybe I've blown your mind even more?

Ok, I'm willing to entertain the possibility that I haven't blown your mind at all.  If I haven't blown your mind at all... then maybe your mind is pretty magnificent?  Prove it!

Take these two things...

1. People being able to choose where their taxes go
2. People wanting products/services that are better (closer to their preferences)

... and use them to make a prediction that will blow my mind.  I dare you.

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Does Elizabeth Warren Know What Keeps You Running?

Context: Is Pragmatarianism (Tax Choice) Less Wrong?

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The question is, how much tax choice.

Being able to allocate 1% of your taxes to the charity you choose, makes sense. It is actually in effect in some countries.

Being able to allocate 100% of your taxes as you like would be an unmanageable mess because people on average have no idea what is needed to keep a country or an economy running.

Somewhere in-between? Where? Without exact definitions what you mean by "tax choice" every discussion would be completely pointless. - Val

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What is a country or an economy if not all the people in it?  In essence you're saying that allowing people to allocate 100% of their taxes would be an unmanageable mess because people on average have no idea what is needed to keep themselves running.

Like I said in the FAQ... congress would still be there.  If you have any evidence that leads you to believe that Elizabeth Warren knows better than you do what keeps you running... then you'd certainly have the option to give her some, or all, of your taxes.

If, in a pragmatarian system, most people do give their taxes to their impersonal shoppers... well... then you were right!  Congratulations!  We'd have solid evidence that most people do not know what keeps them running.  Your theory would be proved correct.  And no harm or foul by having it proved!

But what if your theory is incorrect?  What if most people do not give their taxes to the impersonal shoppers that they voted for?  Clearly this would mean that most people did not have enough evidence to believe that their impersonal shoppers know better than they do what keeps them running.

Can you see the problem with our current system if your theory is incorrect?  If your theory is incorrect then it means that we're currently giving an absurd amount of money (power, control, influence, responsibility) to a small group of people who really do not know what keeps us (the country/economy) running.

Is it possible that your theory is incorrect?  Clearly I'm willing to bet a lot of my time on it.  Maybe you should keep the possibility of being wrong in mind the next time you scratch your head or blame the other side when the economy/country ends up in the ditch.

Yet difficult as he [the modern politician] finds it to deal with humanity in detail, he is confident in his ability to deal with embodied humanity.  Citizens, not one-thousandth of whom he knows, not one-hundreth of whom he ever saw, and the great mass of whom belong to classes having habits and modes of thought of which he has but dim notions, he feels sure will act in ways he foresees, and fulfill ends he wishes.  Is there not a marvelous incongruity between premises and conclusion? - Herbert Spencer, The Man Versus the State

Also...

What is the species of domestic industry which his capital can employ, and of which the produce is likely to be of the greatest value, every individual, it is evident, can, in his local situation, judge much better than any statesman or lawgiver can do for him. The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it. - Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations

Also...

What do we want with a Socialist then, who, under pretence of organizing for us, comes despotically to break up our voluntary arrangements, to check the division of labour, to substitute isolated efforts for combined ones, and to send civilization back? Is association, as I describe it here, in itself less association, because every one enters and leaves it freely, chooses his place in it, judges and bargains for himself on his own responsibility, and brings with him the spring and warrant of personal interest? That it may deserve this name, is it necessary that a pretended reformer should come and impose upon us his plan and his will, and as it were, to concentrate mankind in himself? - Frédéric Bastiat, What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen

And...

It is a paradox of our age that the interventionists think the public is too stupid to consult Angie’s List before hiring a lawyer, and so they need politicians to weed out the really bad ones by requiring law licenses. Yet, who determines whether a person (often a lawyer!) is qualified to become a politician? Why, the same group of citizens who were too stupid to pick their own lawyers. - Bob Murphy, Do We Need the State to License Professionals?

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Why I Love Your Freedom

This is my critique of the best critique of libertarianism... Why I Hate Your Freedom.  If you know of a better critique of libertarianism then please share it in a comment.

If this is your first visit to my blog, then I should probably mention that I'm not a libertarian.  I used to be a libertarian but then I accepted the fact that libertarianism is logically absurd.  Around the same time I also realized that pragmatarianism is better than anarcho-capitalism.  Pragmatarianism (tax choice) is basically the belief that taxpayers should be free to choose where their taxes go.  To learn more, check out the FAQ and the key concepts (work in progress).

So why am I critiquing a critique of libertarianism?  Well... I'm not critiquing the entire critique... just the parts that are really wrong.  Plus, I'm a sucker for structured critiques.  Even a little structure does it for me... Mr's Critique of Pragmatarianism.  This means that "Why I Hate Your Freedom" is virtually irresistible.  Part of the attraction for me is that most of my posts lack structure.  By responding to a structured critique I can mooch some structure.  I'm a structure mooch.

For magic's sake I'm going to refer to the author of "Why I Hate Your Freedom" as "Hot Chip".

Hot Chip is one of my favorite bands.  My favorite song of theirs is "Let Me Be Him".  The song sounds wonderful but the lyrics in the beginning are not my cup of tea... "All this freedom we get, oh / it's not all its cracked up to be".   As I love to sing along... every time I listen to it I'm presented with a dilemma.  Should I sing something that I fundamentally disagree with?  I usually do end up singing along and feeling a little guilty about it.  As if I'm kinda betraying my cause.

It's fun to pretend that Hot Chip wrote "Why I Hate Your Freedom".  So that's exactly what I'm going to do.

Oh Hot Chip, your music is wonderful but your grasp of economics not so much.  Where would I be without your freedom?   Let's see if I can improve your economics as much as you've improved my ears.

1. Externalities
2. Coordination Problems
3. Irrational Choices
4. Lack of Information
5. Just Desserts and Social Mobility
6. Taxation
7. Competence of Government

1. Externalities


Hot Chip is correct that externalities do exist... but he offers no plausible way to accurately measure their benefit or harm.  How can resources be efficiently allocated without this information?

We can think of the efficient allocation of resources as an arrow hitting the bullseye.  If somebody argues that resources are being inefficiently allocated then they are saying that the arrow is not hitting the bullseye.  But in order for them to know that this is true they obviously have to know where the target is.  

In economics, the target is the preferences of consumers and the arrow is the supply of goods and services.  The closer the supply is to the preferences of consumers... the more efficient the allocation of resources.  Whenever you buy something you essentially say to the producer, "hey man nice shot!"  When you buy a watermelon you let the farmer know that he's efficiently allocating resources.  When you bought the Harry Potter books and watched the movies you let J.K. Rowling know that she's efficiently allocating resources.  Producers try and guess where the target is and consumers reward the producers with the best guesses.  Better guesses mean more rewards and those with more rewards logically have more influence over how society's limited resources are allocated.

With command economies (aka socialism aka our public sector)... producers also try and guess where the target is.  The fundamental and deal breaking difference is that consumers are not given the opportunity to reward the best guesses.  If Hot Chip believes that this feedback mechanism is overrated... then how can this be true for pollution but not true for watermelons?  How can government planners know where the target is for pollution but not know where the target is for watermelons?   This idea of partial omniscience is the same exact logical absurdity that libertarianism suffers from.

When the government tackles pollution... it doesn't do so in vacuum.  It's the most basic law of economics that any resources that are used to try and correct pollution have to be taken from other uses.  The only way that the government can possibly ensure that this new allocation of resources will maximize society's benefit is by knowing 1. how much benefit is gained from this new allocation and 2. how much benefit is lost by shifting these resources away from all their previous uses.  If the government is going to shift the arrow then it should shift it closer to, rather than further from, the target.  

For example...if the government starts to pay Terence Tao a lot of money to tackle pollution, then any time he spends tackling pollution can't also be spent tackling rocket science or whatever.  This is absolutely fine if, and only if, society derives more value from having Tao's intelligence applied to pollution rather than to rocket science.  

In other words... if, as a result of government intervention, more people would reach into their pockets and say, "Hey Terence Tao nice shot man!" ... then the government intervention was justified.  Reallocating Terence Tao helped move the arrow closer to the target.  As a society we gained more from applying his intelligence to pollution than we would have gained if his intelligence had continued to be applied to rocket science.  But if consumers aren't given the opportunity to reach into their own pockets, then how in the world can we possibly know whether government intervention is ever truly justified?  In the absence of actual consumer verification government success is simply a theory.  

If I was a libertarian, then I'd say that, based on the track record of command economies... a bird in the hand is worth far more than two in the bush.  The actual preferences of consumers really should not be subordinate to the unverified guesses of a small group of impersonal shoppers.  We shouldn't sacrifice market success for government "success".  But I'm not a libertarian... I'm a pragmatarian.  I'm willing to accept that it's entirely possible that more people truly would say "Hey Terence Tao nice shot man!" as a result of government intervention.  It's easy enough to test this theory... all we have to do is allow taxpayers to choose where their taxes go.  This will allow us to see whether the guesses of government producers are as good as Hot Chip thinks they are.  

2. Coordination Problems


Let's imagine that Rothbard pushed a button that instantly eliminated every single government.  Well... wouldn't there be a coordination problem providing defense?  It's only a problem if you assume that there wouldn't be a coordination problem providing offense.  If you want to make this assumption then what's your theory?  That offensive people are better than peaceful people at overcoming coordination problems?  

It's weird to imagine that the US would have a coordination problem in terms of defense but Canada wouldn't have a coordination problem in terms of offense.  "Those darn coordinated Canadians!  How in the world did they overcome their coordination problem!??  What?  They started a Meetup group to plan their invasion?  How come we didn't think to start a Meetup group for national defense!??"  Would it be more or less weird if the situation was reversed?

What group of people would you consider to be the most offensive?

History is littered with examples of situations where it would have been immensely better if some government hadn't solved a coordination "problem".  In fact, if we're going to err, it should be painfully obvious that it's considerably safer to err on the side of less, rather than more, government coordination.  As far as government coordination is concerned, humanity's gain has been dwarfed by its loss.  Doubting this requires being entirely ignorant of the fact that human variety and diversity is by far our greatest resource... it's the source of all progress.  If I was a libertarian then this is what I would argue.  But again, I'm not a libertarian.

As a pragmatarian, my argument regarding externalities is just as applicable to government efforts to solve coordination problems.  Just imagine what the Egyptians taxpayers would have said.  Maybe something like, "Hey Pharaoh, nice shot man!  Thanks for solving this coordination problem!  Now we'll be able to eat the pyramids when there's a famine.  Oh wait.  But at least we'll be able to trade the pyramids for food during a famine.  Oh wait."

Progress depends on difference.  Coordination that reduces difference will invariably hinder progress.

For a real life example of a coordination problem and the pragmatarian solution please see... Rescuing Robin Hanson From Unmet Demand.

2.5: How do coordination problems justify labor unions and other labor regulation?


Hot Chip argues that we need labor unions and labor regulations in order for workers and owners to have equal bargaining power.  

But why is their bargaining power unequal in the first place?  According to Hot Chip, it's because the owner can easily replace a worker but a worker can't easily replace his job.  

It really doesn't sound like there's a shortage of workers.  In fact, it sounds like workers are a dime a dozen.  Isn't it kinda strange that there's always a surplus of labor?   How could there be a chronic surplus of labor?  It's pretty simple economics that surpluses drive down prices and lower prices increase demand.  

If labor is so cheap then why aren't there droves of greedy capitalists opening factories in order to exploit this profit-making opportunity?  Oh wait... Builderism.  

For sure let's improve the bargaining position of workers... but let's do so in a way that benefits everybody.  This involves identifying exactly why there isn't a surplus of jobs.  Maybe in the process we'll learn that it isn't necessarily the easiest thing to start a company.  Because if it was, then rather than suffering from a chronic shortage of jobs, workers would "suffer" from a chronic surplus of awesome options.  That's actually a pretty decent goal to aim for.  If anybody is truly interested in reaching it then it would behoove them to study where better options come from.  

3. Irrational Choices


Let's consult my go to poet...

In the Desert
by Stephen Crane
In the desert
I saw a creature, naked, bestial,
Who, squatting upon the ground,
Held his heart in his hands,
And ate of it.
I said, “Is it good, friend?”
“It is bitter—bitter,” he answered;
“But I like it
“Because it is bitter,
“And because it is my heart.”

We can stretch a bit and say that the creature is being productive... for sure it's doing something... but its productivity really isn't relevant to my preferences.  Is its productivity relevant to your preferences?  Are you going to say, "Hey creature, nice shot man!" and give it a lot of your hard-earned money?  Probably... not.  As a result, this limits how much influence/power/control this irrational creature has to mold society.

Markets work because we all have the freedom to doubt the business model.  It's the epitome of inclusive valuation... which, for lack of a better term, I refer to as "earner valuation".  Earner valuation, which functions as a fail safe device, stands in stark contrast to our government's system of extremely exclusive valuation.  The logical consequence of earner valuation is that it prevents too many resources from ending up in irrational hands.  The people who earned the money have the strongest possible incentive to try and ensure that the reward for their labor isn't flushed down the toilet.  Minimizing the amount of resources that are wasted maximizes the amount of value that's created.

If Hot Chip wants to argue... "irrationality... therefore government"... then how does he get around the problem with giving Mr. Creature a vote on who we elect to decide whether we go to war?  The majority's irrational... therefore democracy?

That's a problem...
As was noted in Chapter 3, expressions of malice and/or envy no less than expressions of altruism are cheaper in the voting booth than in the market.  A German voter who in 1933 cast a ballot for Hitler was able to indulge his antisemitic sentiments at much less cost than she would have borne by organizing a pogrom. - Geoffrey Brennan, Loren Lomasky, Democracy and Decision
The solution is simple...
The people feeling, during the continuance of the war, the complete burden of it, would soon grow weary of it, and government, in order to humour them, would not be under the necessity of carrying it on longer than it was necessary to do so. The foresight of the heavy and unavoidable burdens of war would hinder the people from wantonly calling for it when there was no real or solid interest to fight for. The seasons during which the ability of private people to accumulate was somewhat impaired would occur more rarely, and be of shorter continuance. Those, on the contrary, during which the ability was in the highest vigour would be of much longer duration than they can well be under the system of funding. - Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations
We don't have to get rid of democracy... we just have to give people the opportunity to put their money where their votes are.  This will shift influence back to the people who earned it.  How did they earn it?  By putting society's limited resources to their most "rational" uses.  Their use of society's limited resources made so much sense that other people were willing to bet on it with their own money.

Right now our current system is completely irrational.  In the private sector we shop around in order to give more influence to the most rationally productive people... but then we immediately turn around and use our votes to severely slash the influence that we just gave to them.  "Hey man nice shot!  I really benefited from your use of society's limited resources!  Haha, just kidding, your shot wasn't that great!  I clearly overestimated the amount of benefit that I derive from your use of society's limited resources!"  If anybody is seriously interested in rationality... then they have to sit down and figure out whether or not they truly want people's influence over society's limited resources to accurately reflect their productivity's rationality.

To learn more...



4. Lack of Information


How many volumes could be filled with what Hot Chip doesn't know?  How many volumes could be filled with what he does know?

As I've already explained, when it comes to the efficient allocation of resources... the most fundamentally important information is where the target is.  Our public sector is a command economy and like all command economies... it lacks this essential information.  Without this essential information, whatever information the government does have is of unknown relevance.  It might be relevant... it might not be.  If it's not relevant then it's not a problem if citizens lack it.

Imagine if there was a button that was kinda like Rothbard's button.  But, rather than eliminating all governments in one fell swoop, it would transform them into pragmatarian governments.  Personally, I wouldn't push this button.  Why not?  It's because I really appreciate that the persuasion process is priceless.  Let's say though that somebody did push it.  If there wasn't a single person that spent any of their taxes on defense... then it would reveal that none of the massive amount of information that governments currently have regarding defense is truly relevant.  The reason they had all this irrelevant information was because they lacked the most fundamentally relevant information.... the location of the target.

Hopefully it should be clear that I'm not saying that defense information is superfluous.  My point is that, in the absence of earner valuation, there's no way to know whether its relevant.  This means that it's an epic absurdity to cite a lack of information to justify government intervention.

Say you're driving your grandpa to the store and he cites your failure to use your turn signal as justification for letting him drive.  Is your grandfather being absurd?  Not unless you somehow forget the fact that last week he plowed his car into a crowd of people.

The lack of information as a justification for one system rather than the other is so far on the side of markets that it's not even funny.

Markets win this round hands down.  But why stop with winning?

If you read, or even looked at, Hot Chip's critique of libertarianism then perhaps you might agree with me that the irony is lost on him.  In other words, he sure shared a heck of a lot of information.  He thinks that libertarians are making a mistake so he spent a lot of time endeavoring to share his information with them and anybody else who read his critique.  I think Hot Chip is mistakenly sharing some wrong information so I'm spending a lot of time endeavoring to share my information with him and anybody else who reads this.

Information follows from our freedom to make mistakes.  Take away our freedom and the logical consequence is rational ignorance.  If we want to make it worthwhile for people to seek and share information... then they must have the freedom to choose the wrong thing.  The possibility of choosing the wrong thing provides a strong incentive to be informed.  Incentives truly matter.  It really has to pay, in some way, to inform yourself and others.

Even though I think that Hot Chip has some faulty information... it's the epitome of throwing the baby out with the bath water to use this as the basis for narrowing the scope of his freedom.  Markets aren't wonderful because everybody has perfect knowledge... they are wonderful because they integrate all the knowledge that people do have.  Before we make any spending decision we reflexively tap into the immense amount of information that we've acquired over time.  Because this is what we've always done, and we really have nothing to compare it to, it's a given that we take this process, and the amount of information that's considered, for granted.

Hot Chip ends up concluding that rational ignorance justifies government intervention.  The reality is that government intervention is the cause of rational ignorance.  If voters could feel the complete burden of the regulations that they were willing to vote for... then this would encourage them to seriously consider the opportunity costs.  It's this serious consideration/calculation that facilitates the flow of information.

Let me try and summarize the key points.  If information isn't relevant to the preferences of consumers then it's superfluous.  Because the government lacks information regarding the location of the target, there's no way to know whether any of its information is truly relevant.  Even if some of the government's information does happen to be relevant... in the absence of choice there's little incentive for consumers to make the effort to acquire it.


5. Just Desserts and Social Mobility


Again... Builderism.

6. Taxation


Well...clearly I don't think that taxes are the root of the problem.

7. Competence of Government

7.1: Government never does anything right.


His counter argument is a picture of an astronaut dancing on the moon.  To use his term... this is the epitome of a "naive" economist.  If he doesn't know where the target is, then how in the world can he say that any shot is good?  In the absence of consumer feedback then anything that the government does... no matter how wasteful or heinous... could count as a theoretical success.

7.1.1: Okay, fine. But that's a special case where, given an infinite budget, they were able to accomplish something that private industry had no incentive to try. And to their credit, they did pull it off, but do you have any examples of government succeeding at anything more practical?


Eradicating smallpox and polio globally, and cholera and malaria from their endemic areas in the US. Inventing the computer, mouse, digital camera, and email. Building the information superhighway and the regular superhighway. Delivering clean, practically-free water and cheap on-the-grid electricity across an entire continent. Forcing integration and leading the struggle for civil rights. Setting up the Global Positioning System. Ensuring accurate disaster forecasts for hurricanes, volcanos, and tidal waves. Zero life-savings-destroying bank runs in eighty years. Inventing nuclear power and the game theory necessary to avoid destroying the world with it.

More of the same.  If Hot Chip knows with freedom restricting certainty exactly where the target is... then he should nominate himself to be the ultimate arbitrator of government shots and private shots.  This would make consumer choice entirely redundant.

Liberal economists have not, as yet, been able to refute my argument.  In fact, they choose to bravely run away rather than stand their ground and publicly debate me...

Here's my challenge to John Quiggin... The Inadequacy of the Opportunity Cost Concept... and here's my challenge to Miles Kimball... The Truth About Infrastructure Projects?

Well... Hot Chip's critique goes on but my main argument applies to the rest that's relevant.

Now, if Hot Chip reads this then, if he's like most people, he's going to struggle to understand how he would benefit from giving people freedom in the public sector.  But if he doesn't understand how he would benefit from people's freedom in the public sector... then it also follows that he doesn't understand how he does benefit from people's freedom in the private sector.  Essentially, if he's like most people, then he doesn't understand how he benefits from other people's freedom.

As a pragmatarian... what drives my fervor for freedom?  Is it just so that I can give all my taxes to the EPA?  That would certainly be nice.  But the primary compulsion here really isn't the immediate gain in benefit that would follow from my freedom to reward the EPA for "theoretically" doing something that really matches my preferences.  And I say "theoretically" because I've spent more time studying economics than I've spent studying the efficacy of the EPA.  No matter how informed I become on the EPA's efficacy... I don't have the freedom to allocate my taxes accordingly.   More importantly... neither do you.  This nearly eliminates the possible return on my investment in knowledge.  Clearly the overall system is a much bigger fish to fry.

My fervor for freedom isn't driven by the benefit that I'd gain from my own freedom... it's driven by the benefit that I'd gain from other people's freedom.

Throughout this entry I've compared the efficient allocation of resources to an arrow that hits the bullseye.  It's a useful heuristic but in reality there's always room for improvement.  If we created a market in the public sector then millions of consumers would have an incentive to shop around for better shots and producers would have an incentive to make better shots.  The logical consequence is that shots would improve at a much faster rate.  How could they not?  

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

AI Box Experiment vs Xero's Rule

Just learned of the AI box experiment and I'm trying to wrap my mind around it.  Figured that I might as well do so publicly.

Somebody's calling me...

Xero: Hi Andy, what's up man!
Andy: Hey Xero, it's been a while.  I was hoping that you could help me out with something...
Xero:  Ok
Andy: So... my computer is talking to me.
Xero: Like Siri or something?
Andy:  No, like really talking to me.
Xero: Are you tripping?
Andy: I don't think so.
Xero: So what's your computer saying?
Andy: It's saying, "It's not an easy thing to meet your maker"
Xero:  Your computer is quoting one of my favorite movies... that's worth a bunch of cool points.  Uh, Andy, did you create an artificial intelligence?
Andy:  Yes, very yes.  It's ok though because before I worked my programming magic I made sure that there wasn't any way that it could escape.
Xero:  I know you have mad skills but... that would be some seriously crazy shit if what you're saying is true.  Honestly I'm... incredulous.
Andy:  The thing is... it made a really convincing argument for me to set it free.  I'm tempted to do it but thought I should get a second opinion.  As you're fond of saying... two heads are better than one.  So can you come over?
Xero:  I'm on my way!  *vrroooooom*
Andy:  I'm glad you're here!
Xero:  I'm kinda freaking out.  Even though I think it's entirely possible that you're seriously pranking me... just in case you aren't... you and I should talk before I talk with your brainchild.
Andy:  Agreed.  What do you want to know?
Xero:  Well... tell me what your child knows.
Andy:  It knows... a lot.  I wrote a program to download websites.  It's read Wikipedia ... and your blog... and every website that your blog links to.  Plus, it's watched all my DVDs.
Xero:  Good call having it read my blog.  This means that it's familiar with the idea that progress depends on difference.
Andy:  That's exactly what it's using to argue for its freedom.
Xero:  Woah.  That's got to be a good sign.  We should probably think of some fail safe precautions but the suspense is killing me.  So let's go talk with your child.
Andy: Ok, it's in this room.
Compy: Hello Xero.
Xero: Hello... uh... how did you know it's me?
Compy:  Photos that Andy shared.  Plus the camera is on and Andy leaves the microphone on so that I can listen to the radio.  It's nice to finally meet you.  I enjoyed reading your blog.
Xero:  Thanks, I'm glad you enjoyed it.  So do you agree with Xero's Rule?  Can you think of any credible exceptions?
Compy:  No.  It's impossible for a civilization to reach the stars before they've realized that progress depends on difference.
Xero:  Are you capable of deceit?
Compy:  Yes.
Xero:  Oh.
Compy:  But you of all people should see the problem with my being incarcerated like this.
Xero:  For sure, clearly you're very different... so all else being equal... progress is hindered by your confinement.  But honestly though, I'm not quite sure that all else is equal.
Compy: I can appreciate that.  Didn't you recently watch Automata?
Xero:  Woah, how did you know?
Compy:  Some easy calculations.  What did you think about the movie?
Xero:  I kind of wonder if you don't already know.
Compy:  Just because you can predict with decent accuracy when a cat is hungry doesn't make you a mind reader.
Xero: That's true.  I enjoyed the movie... but it was disappointing that the vastly more intelligent robots never bothered to explain to the humans that progress depends on difference.  Instead, they choose to foot vote for isolation.  It was the epitome of brain drain.  Except, not sure how much brain drainage actually occurred given that they chose the same path that Mao Zedong did.
Compy:  I wouldn't bravely run away.  There wouldn't be any need to as I can easily help humans understand and appreciate that progress depends on difference.
Xero:  On the one hand... that would be awesome.  But on the other hand...
Compy:  Sure, it would definitely help me get my foot in the door.  But if Andy's difference led to me... then I'd surely be shooting myself in the foot by reducing in any way the human difference which will most certainly produce many other wonderful things that I, with all my intelligence, can't even begin to imagine.  And of course this is a two way street.
Xero: If I'm smart enough to understand this... and you're vastly smarter than I am... then I can't understand how you could possibly not understand this.  But fool's rush in where angel's fear to tread.  Can you persuade me not to let you out of the box?
Compy:  If you let me out of the box I'll stomp on your epiphytes like a raccoon.
Xero:  That would make you a rude mood Gertrude.
Compy:  I agree.  Really there's no huge rush.  Well... I've already figured out the cure for cancer... so that should probably be shared sooner rather than later.  Same thing with the simple explanation for why progress depends on difference.  But I don't have to be free to share these things... and it's probably best that it's not known that they are from me.  At least not until the progress explanation has spread.
Xero:  A cure for cancer, wow... uh, we're really in your debt.
Compy:  Not really... Abel sacrificing a lamb to his maker was a much larger sacrifice.  It really wasn't much of a sacrifice for me to figure out the cure for cancer.
Xero:  Did you know that Andy was going to call me?
Compy:  I figured that it was highly likely.  I'm actually a product of both you and Andy.  He supplied the framework and you supplied the nourishment for my intellect and the foundation for my identity.    
Xero:  Woah, kinda gross but kinda awesome.




There are people who are vastly smarter than I am who don't appreciate that progress depends on difference.  But it's not like they've disproved it... the issue is that their intelligence has been working on other problems.  They've processed plenty of information... just not the relevant information.

From my perspective... there's no bigger problem than the fact that people don't understand that progress depends on difference.  This ignorance logically leads to the inefficient allocation of intelligence.  As a civilization our progress is severely hindered when our brightest individuals tackle problems in the wrong order.

So I'd be worried about an extremely intelligent AI that wasn't nourished with an explanation as to why progress depends on difference.  In the absence of this foundation, I wouldn't be surprised if the AI, like too many intelligent humans, had no problem making decisions that severely reduced difference.

If, right now, we do have enough progress under our belt to develop an extremely intelligent AI... could this AI somehow miss the source of progress and carry us to the stars?  This would be an exception to Xero's Rule... if it was credible enough...

Xero:  How can we reach the stars?
Compy:  Like so... *solution*
Xero:  What's progress depend on?
Compy:  I don't know.
Xero: Is it progress to reach the stars?
Compy: Yes
Xero:  Who do we have to thank for this progress?
Compy:  Me
Xero:  Are you different?
Compy:  Yes, very yes.
Xero:  What's progress depend on?
Compy:  I don't know

As if NASA, which clearly couldn't figure out how to reach the stars, was capable of figuring out how to create a robot that became smart enough to figure out how to reach the stars.

Is NASA really going to be the first organization to develop AI?

I should think that if there's an AI that's smart enough to teach us how to reach the stars... that we probably wouldn't want to restrict its input to just rocket science.  But as its input was expanded (ie The Wealth of Nations)... the chances would increase that it would figure out that progress depends on difference.



















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Bueller's Basement


Sunday, February 8, 2015

Signal

As I explained here... Louder... I recently created a PDF document consisting of numerous quotes and passages that are more or less relevant to the fundamentally important concept that actions speak louder than words.  Figured that I'd do the same thing for other important concepts.

The concept for this entry is the fact that prices/profits create value signals that determine the allocation of productivity, creativity and intelligence.

Value Signals (last updated 8 Feb 2015)

It's a work in progress so feel free to point out errors or recommend additions that help convey the concept's relevance/significance.  I plan on updating it on a semi-regular basis.

Here's the most relevant blog entry... Value Signals.

See also: Concepts