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Showing posts with label Elizabeth Warren. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elizabeth Warren. Show all posts

Monday, August 3, 2015

Minimizing Economic Wackiness

Reply to: Thank you for the thorough and thoughtful response.

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A year ago I created a group on reddit for participatory budgeting (PB). Not too long afterwards I ended up getting shadowbanned. Stupid reddit.

Apart from the banishment… I like the idea of reddit. It’s interesting and useful to know the relative popularity of ideas. 

The issue is when resources are allocated according to popularity. Take prohibition for example. The idea was popular enough for enough people to vote for it. And in order for the law to be enforced… massive amounts of resources were diverted away from numerous alternative uses. 

Allocating society’s limited resources to prohibition created X amount of value for society. If all these resources hadn’t been allocated to prohibition… then they would have created Y amount of value for society. 

If X > Y… then why bother with markets? Why should we want any consumer choice when voter choice and/or representative choice provides society with more value? 

With pragmatarianism… directly allocating taxes would be optional. Nobody would force you to choose where your taxes go. If you didn’t want to shop for yourself in the public sector…you could just give your tax dollars to congress. They would be more than happy to allocate your taxes for you. What percentage of the population do you predict would choose to have congress allocate their taxes for them? 

If you want to argue that representative choice creates more value for society than consumer choice does… then, in theory, you should predict that most people would choose to have congress spend their taxes for them. You would be the first to do so! For some reason, nobody ever predicts that most people will want congress to spend their taxes for them. Why doesn’t anybody predict that there’s a large demand for impersonal shoppers? Some possibilities…

  1. It’s perceived that taxpayers don’t want more value
  2. It’s perceived that few taxpayers recognize more value
  3. It’s perceived that representatives don’t truly create more value

I’m pretty sure that we can cross out the first one. Because… who doesn’t want more value? Every living organism wants the most bang for its buck. If the second one is true… then we can’t have any confidence that voters (re)elect representatives who truly create more value. Which leaves us with the third explanation.

Would Obama allocate his taxes himself… or would he have congress allocate his taxes for him? Would smart people allocate their taxes themselves… or would they have congress allocate their taxes for them? If the answer isn’t readily apparent… then I think the jury’s still out regarding the efficacy of impersonal shoppers. 

Pragmatarianism, as you describe it, is one way of using the benefits of markets to shape public policy. But relying on departments (such as the EPA in your example) to adequately inform the public, and then relying on the public to magnanimously make decisions about somewhat abstract, long-term issues, seems impossible. As you mention about the free-rider problem with public goods, people are always pulled toward self-interest, and *short-term* self interest at that. I don’t see any way such a full degree of direct public control could lead to anything planful, let alone thriving.

If the EPA is going to improve at a faster rate without consumer choice… then why would this only be true of government organizations? If the government… either through PB or representatives… is going to allocate the optimal amount of funding to the EPA… then why would this only be true of government organizations? 

When it comes to allocation methods… it’s not economically consistent to simultaneously support markets and not-markets. With markets… people’s say is earned. Not-markets reduce people’s earned say. PB eliminates everybody’s earned say and gives them all an equal say. According to PB… people’s value judgements are equally good. People should all have the same power/control/influence over society’s limited resources… regardless of how resourceful or wasteful they’ve been. However, according to representation… people’s value judgements are not equally good. Some people’s values judgements are better… and we can effectively identify these people and give them more say by using a system where everybody has an equal say (voting). The additional say that is given to representatives has to come from somewhere though… and that somewhere is people’s earned say. 

Utilizing all three allocation methods results in a very contradictory, confusing and counterproductive system…

There’s a long line of people waiting to get into Bob’s Bakery. Evidently they really love his baked goods! So they are willing to wait in line for the opportunity to put their money into his pocket. After they purchase Bob’s delicious baked goods… they head over to the townhall where they engage in some PB. This entails reaching back into Bob’s pocket… taking out some of the money that they just put in there… and voting on how it gets spent. Uh… what? They already decided how it should be spent! They decided that it should be spent on Bob’s baked goods. Do they, or do they not, want more of Bob’s baked goods? 

If we make the crazy assumption that Bob’s customers are actually going to vote for spending their/his money on the public goods that Bob needs in order to improve his business… then we also need to make the crazy assumption that his customers somehow know better than he does which public goods these are. Without these two crazy assumptions… the logical result is that people are going to be made worse off. Why? Because they are veering significant resources away from something that, according to their own spending decisions, makes them better off (more of Bob’s baked goods).

This same economically wacky process gets repeated, more or less, when Bob’s customers vote for Elizabeth Warren…

There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody. You built a factory out there — good for you! But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn’t have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory, and hire someone to protect against this, because of the work the rest of us did. — Elizabeth Warren

With PB… one of the the crazy assumptions was that Bob’s customers know better than he does which public goods he needs more of. With representation… the crazy assumption is that Bob’s customers know that Elizabeth Warren knows better than Bob does which public goods he needs more of. Uh… what? So Warren knows best? 

The fact of the matter is that nobody has more incentive than Bob does to try and ensure that the line outside his bakery is as long as possible. So we can be confident that, if Warren truly does know better than Bob does which public goods that he needs more of in order to get richer… then he’ll be more than happy to put his taxes in her pocket. 

Personally though… I’m skeptical that 500 representatives can know better than millions and millions of business owners which public goods that they need more of in order to successfully operate their diverse businesses. In other words, I’m skeptical of command economies. In other words, I’m skeptical of socialism. Socialism doesn’t become any less sketchy just because it’s in our public sector. Overriding society’s dispersed knowledge and individual incentive is just as defective for public goods as it is for private goods.

In order to minimize economic wackiness… the basic rule should be that, once you voluntarily and intentionally and willingly put your money into somebody else’s pocket… then you shouldn’t be allowed to remove any portion of it. If you do happen to feel that Bob didn’t give you the most bread for your buck… then learn your lesson and buy your bread somewhere else next time. Consumer choice, driven by self-interest (the desire to maximize benefit) is how we truly maximize the rate of improvement. 

Regarding short-term self interest… what is it anyways? Partying when you should be studying? Playing when you should be working? Consuming when you should be producing? Taxpayers, by definition, are the people who give up momentary pleasure for future benefit.

Socialism wouldn’t be such a disaster if well-planned steps were usually in the right directions. But no amount of planning can guarantee that a step will be in the right direction. This doesn’t mean that we should eliminate planning… it means that we should never be so confident of our plans that we force people to go along with them. Solely relying on persuasion maximizes the flow of information. Like so! 

Decentralized planning helps society hedge its bets against a future that’s always uncertain. Which is why pragmatarianism is the world’s best plan. But as good as it is… I can never be 100% certain that it doesn’t have fundamentally fatal flaws. Therefore, I would never force anybody to invest any amount of their limited time/energy/money in it. 

Anyways, I appreciate your thoughts as well! 

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Government: Larger, Smaller or Better?

So, I would think the solution would be smaller government, so the 1% have less they can control. A government that taxes less, spends less, and regulates less, offers fewer opportunities for cronyism. Alas, Stiglitz sees the solution as more government: higher taxes, more effective redistribution programs, and more effective regulation. - Randall Holcombe, Joseph Stiglitz: The Price of Inequality
shrinking government, which thus shrinks the power of politicians is the only way to stop cronyism. - Robert Wenzel, Bleeding Heart Libertarian: Koch, Soros and Adelson are Idiots for Spending Money Buying Politicians

If there were only two options on the table...

A. Larger government
B. Smaller government

...then I would certainly choose smaller government.  In other words, in the 2016 presidential elections...if I had to choose between voting for Elizabeth Warren or Rand Paul...then I'd certainly vote for Rand Paul.

On the one hand...everybody wants a free lunch...but on the other hand...consumer choice does have extremely beneficial consequences.  So whichever public goods Rand Paul kicked over to the private sector...I'd hope that the gain in quality/results/effectiveness would more than make up for any loss in volume.  A small volume of effective private welfare is certainly better than a huge volume of ineffective public welfare.
 
But it's so strange though when you think about it.  Rand Paul would kick certain public goods over to the private sector.  Why?  Because the invisible hand is better than the visible hand.  Except, it wouldn't be the invisible hand deciding which public goods were moved over to the private sector...it would be Rand Paul...the visible hand.  If we can trust Rand Paul to pick which public goods should be moved to the private sector...then that sort of defeats the purpose of moving public goods over to the private sector in the first place.

As far as I can tell...it would be far more logical to simply create a market in the public sector.  Doing so would allow the invisible hand to clarify the demand for public goods.  This means that the invisible hand would allocate resources in both sectors.  Therefore, pragmatarianism is economically consistent libertarianism.

Basically...my trust ranking looks something like this...

Elizabeth Warren < Rand Paul < Invisible Hand

Except, that really does not convey the intensity of trust.  I trust the invisible hand infinitely more than I would trust Rand Paul.

My question is...how long is it going to take before people acknowledge the existence of a third option?

A. Larger government
B. Smaller government
C. Better government

How many comments do I have to leave on other people's blogs before consumers are no longer forced between a rock and a hard place?

Perhaps one measure of effectiveness is to keep track of how many people make the argument that the government cannot or should not be run like a business.  So I'll conclude with a couple relevant passages...

If a government enterprise is funded through tax dollars, it does not face the same market test as a genuinely private business. The problem is all the more severe if the government grants an outright monopoly to the enterprise. The bureaucrats running it have little reason to cut costs or to please their "customers" if they receive a guaranteed level of funding regardless of their outcomes. In an extra twist of perversion, when a government agency botches its job, it often receives more funding. In this view, government officials waste money and offer shoddy output simply because they can. - Robert P. Murphy, Why Government Doesn't—and Can't—Manage Resources Like a Private Business

Government efficiency proponents make the mistake of viewing the cost of government in the same light as the cost of operating a private business. However, government cannot operate like a business because it isn’t a business.
[...]
Government is unconcerned with “profit.” The “cost” of government is equal to the taxes extracted from the private sector to pay for government activities, plus the economic damage caused by extracting resources from the private sector. Taxes are involuntarily obtained through compulsion and force. Regardless of the value a citizen assigns to the services provided by government, a citizen must pay for those services, and at a price set by government. The price one pays for government is primarily a function of political factors, which are only indirectly influenced by economic considerations. - Tad DeHaven, ‘Government Efficiency’

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

The Opportunity Costs of Public Transportation


Tickets are the worst.  On the plus side though...my online traffic school shared a plethora of statistics on public transportation.  Based on these statistics, we can clearly see that public transportation truly is a public good.  Therefore, Elizabeth Warren was correct when she said that business owners have an obligation to "pay it forward".

That being said, Warren was incorrect for failing to mention that no two public goods provide the exact same benefit to society as a whole.  This disparity in benefits was the point of my entry on the Opportunity Cost of War and my entry on the Opportunity Costs of Public Goods and my entry on the Ostrich Response to Pragmatarianism.

You might not be familiar with the term "opportunity cost" but everybody intuitively understands this concept.  This concept is embodied in the common saying that you can't have your cake and eat it too.  Your decision to either have or eat your cake reflects your values.  The problem with the current system is that congress has no idea what our values are.  Without knowing society's true values it's impossible for planners to accurately determine the best possible use of public funds.

The only way to guarantee the best possible use of public funds would be to allow each and every taxpayer to directly allocate their individual taxes.  This would force them to consider the opportunity costs of their tax allocation decisions.  Each and every taxpayer would intuitively understand that the money they spent on one public good could not be spent on other public goods.  This intuitive realization would force them to prioritize which public goods they valued most.  This process of millions and millions of taxpayers prioritizing their tax spending decisions is known in economic terms as the "Invisible Hand".

Elizabeth Warren was right that business owners should "pay it forward"...but she neglected to share an equally important point.  Each and every taxpayer should have the freedom to directly allocate their taxes among the various government organizations.  This would allow the demand for public goods to determine the supply of public goods.

Here are the statistics on public transportation.  It might seem like a huge responsibility for taxpayers to have to consider all the statistics of the various public goods...but in reality taxpayers would allocate their taxes to try and address shortages of the public goods that they valued the most.  Just like there's a donor division of labor in the non-profit sector so too would there be a taxpayer division of labor in the public sector.  The huge tax allocation responsibility that congress currently shoulders would be distributed among millions and millions of taxpayers.  Of course, in a pragmatarian system any taxpayers that weren't interested in directly allocating their taxes could still just give all their taxes to congress.

Public Transportation Statistics

According to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration...

Public transportation is a $35 billion industry that employs more than 350,000 people.

Public Support

Three-quarter of Americans support the use of public funds for the expansion and improvement of public transportation.

Costs

New urban expressways cost up to $100 million per mile while rail and bike facilities cost on average $15 million and $.1 million, respectively.

Federal transportation grants for State and local governments totaled $4.4 billion for transit or 14% of all transportation grants in 2000.

Economic Benefits

Business output is positively affected by transit investment.

Almost half of all Fortune 500 companies, representing over $2 trillion in annual revenue, are headquartered in America’s transit-intensive metropolitan areas.

A $10 million investment in public transportation results in a $30 million gain in sales for local businesses.

For every passenger mile traveled, public transportation is twice as fuel-efficient as private automobiles, sport-utility vehicles, and light trucks.

In Los Angeles alone, $0.80 of every $1.00 spent on public transport gets re-circulated in the local area, translating into $3.80 in goods and services.

A study on U.S. government spending and its impact on worker productivity estimated that a 10 year $100 billion increase in public transport spending would boost worker output by $521 billion, compared with $237 billion for the same spending on highways.

In a recent study conducted it was found that 40 hours are spent in traffic that is NOT moving in 1/3 of the United States cities

22 billion dollars are saved each year by Americans using public transportation if they live in transit-intensive areas.

Every dollar a taxpayer invests in public transportation can potentially have a return of $6 dollars or more regarding an economic return.

For every passenger mile traveled, public transportation is twice as fuel-efficient as private automobiles, sport-utility vehicles, and light trucks.

Demographics

$50,000 is the average annual income of a rail commuter who owns at least 2 automobiles.

Approximately 94% of people on welfare are choosing to use public transportation when trying to find employment in the workforce.

The poorest quintile of American households spend 36% of their budgets on transportation, while the richest fifth spend only 14%.

Safety

37,261 highway fatalities were recorded in the year 2008.

In 2008 13,846 people were killed in accidents involving alcohol.

Public transportation helps to keep dangerous drivers off the road by providing a needed transportation choice.

The National Safety Council estimates that riding the bus is over 170 times safer than automobile travel.

Environment

If one in five Americans used public transportation daily, carbon monoxide pollution would decrease by more than all the emissions from the entire chemical manufacturing industry and all metal processing plants in the U.S.

In comparison with private vehicles, public transportation generates 95% less carbon monoxide, 92% less in volatile organic compounds, and about half as much carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide per passenger mile.

Trends

Public transportation rider-ship increased 22% in the last 6 years.

In the last 5 years, public transit use has increased faster than any other mode of transportation.

From 1985 to 2001, the percentage of people driving to work alone increased by 5.8% to represent 78.2% of all means of commuting.

During 1985 to 2001 carpooling declined by 4.4%, public transportation by 0.4% and the percentage of people working at home declined by 0.2%

In 2000, Americans took 9.4 billion trips using public transportation, an increase of 3.5% from the previous year the equivalent of more than one million new trips each day.

In the year 2000, ridership grew twice as fast as the U.S. population and outpaced growth in other travel modes.

Approximately 14 million people in the U.S. choose to use public transportation on weekdays. In addition, 25 million choose to use public transportation less frequently but on a regular basis.