Pages

Showing posts with label persuasion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label persuasion. Show all posts

Saturday, April 15, 2017

Markets Are The Most Exciting Thing Ever!!!!!!!!!

Some discussion in: Netflix And Virtue Signalling

***********************

The money wouldn't necessarily be given to the content producers anyway - it would go to the people who own the IP. Netflix can't change that. Even if it did and even if we assume people didn't just lazily dump the fee into the first thing they see because they get to access everything anyway, money spent wouldn't necessarily reflect demand. - Conscentia

It feels like you're focusing on the word "demand" rather than on the "money spent" part. For me it's significant and meaningful and important and useful to know how much money people are willing to spend on things. It's convenient to use the word "demand" to refer to the amount of money that people are willing to spend on things. But we can also use the letter "X" or the word "fhqwhgads" or "zeitgeist" or any other combination of letters you want. I'm less interested in the word than in the concept. So it would be great if you focused on the concept.

Spending money is a sacrifice. The more money that is spent, the bigger the sacrifice. Since spending money is a sacrifice... generally people don't randomly spend their money. They didn't exchange their limited time and effort for money just so that they can flush it down the toilet.

It's easy to prove this... all I have to do is ask for your money. Of course you're going to want to know why you should give me any money. So in order to persuade you to give me your money, I'd have to provide you with some information. You'd compare the information that I gave you with all the information that you have and then decide whether or not to give me money. If you decided not to give me any money, well, in theory I could endeavor to provide you with different and better information. And again you'd compare this new information with all your information in order to decide whether to give me money.

This process of persuasion involves lots of brainpower being used and lots of information being shared, considered and compared. So it's significant and meaningful and important to know how much money individuals and groups of individuals are willing to spend.

Distributing the fee to the content does not guarantee that more such content will be made. Fans of Star Trek TNG could regularly dump their whole fee into the show but it's not going to be renewed for another season regardless. The show has long been finished. Netflix isn't Patreon. The money doesn't go to fund content. As such there is no sense is spending the fee into order to voice demand, and I'd expect user behaviour to reflect this.  - Conscentia

I was disappointed that Person of Interest was canceled...

As CBS’s chairman, president, and CEO Leslie Moonves told The Hollywood Reporter recently, the company “broke even” on Person of Interest last year, but because Warner Bros., not CBS, profits from the show’s back end (DVD sales, foreign rights, streaming, syndication), it was literally not worth it to renew the show. - Kate Aurthur, “Person Of Interest” And The Mysteries Of Cancellation

It was canceled despite the fact that nobody knew how much money that I was willing to spend on the show. And I suppose this could potentially sound egocentric. So let me zoom out. It was canceled despite the fact that nobody knew how much money that any subscribers were willing to spend on the show. This fact makes me acutely feel like I'm living in the stone ages. Where I have to go around trying to convince people that fire and wheels are useful. I'm extremely grateful that I live in an era where I don't have to try and convince anybody that fire and wheels are useful... but I'm also extremely disappointed that I live in an era where I do have to try and convince everybody that it's useful to know how much money people are willing to spend on things.

Consider how much better off your life is because you live in an era where everybody knows that fire and wheels are useful. Now double or triple or quadruple that amount of betterness to try and appreciate how much better off your life would be if you lived in an era where everybody knows that it's essential to know how much money people are willing to spend on things.

Admittedly I have absolutely no idea how much money everybody would be willing to spend on Person of Interest... so of course I can't guarantee that, if ignorance (of willingness to pay) had been eliminated, the show would have been continued rather than canceled. But I can guarantee that the deciders, whoever they were, would have made a far more informed decision.

The world will be infinitely better off when everybody makes far more informed decisions.

No. That the one rich guy spent 6000 times more does not mean the demand is 6000 times greater. It just means he can afford to spend more. Even if he does want it more, so what? That one rich guy is still just one guy. - Conscentia

Let's imagine that people could choose where their taxes go. Some people want to go to war with Canada. The shape of the demand looks like this...




What would you say about the shape of the demand? I'd say that it's certainly tall enough... but it's way too skinny. Too few people are truly willing to pay for war with Canada. Sure, these few people are willing to pay a lot... but that really doesn't overrule the fact that there aren't nearly enough of them to justify this particular use of their tax dollars. So the DoD would use the money for other things besides invading Canada.

Using technical terms I'd say that the breadth of the demand is insufficient. The shape is too skinny. The fatter (wider) it is... the greater the justification for using those tax dollars to attack Canada.

In terms of the public sector, being concerned with the shape of the demand makes sense because the point of taxes really isn't to spend them on things that only a relatively few people are going to benefit from. We really don't want rich people to be able to spend their taxes on private golf courses or private yachts or private airports. We want everybody, rich or poor, to spend their taxes on things that lots of people are going to benefit from. Maybe like healthcare?




The shape isn't super tall... but it's pretty fat. There's definitely more than enough demand breadth to justify these tax dollars being spent on healthcare. Although perhaps it's not quite correct to compare something more general (healthcare) with something more specific (war with Canada). It would probably be more correct to compare war with Canada to cancer research. We can reasonably guess that the demand for the latter would be far broader than the demand for the former.

In any case, it certainly makes sense to consider the shape of the demand when we're talking about tax dollars. The thing is, we really weren't talking about tax dollars. We really weren't talking about the public sector. We were talking about donors to the Libertarian Party using their donations to signal the value of the potential convention themes. Yet, you definitely thought that the shape of demand was very relevant!

If the entire point of the public sector is to have a space where it's unacceptable for money to be spent on things that will only benefit a few people... then it's gotta be the case that the entire point of the private sector is to have a space where it is entirely acceptable for money to be spent on things that will only benefit a few people.

If one person alone wants to spend enough money to choose the theme for the Libertarian Party convention... then that's entirely acceptable. If one person alone wants to spend enough money to prevent Person of Interest from being canceled... then that's entirely awesome. If one person alone wanted to spend enough money to pay for the Statue of Liberty's pedestal... then that also would have been entirely awesome.

Willingness to pay reflects ability to pay, and as such is not a measure of demand. One cannot be willing to pay money one doesn't have, regardless of whether one wants something. - Conscentia

If somebody is completely broke then clearly we can't know how much money they'd be willing to spend on defense, healthcare, Person of Interest, the Statue of Liberty's pedestal, food, clothes, computers or anything else. Homeless people don't have much or any money... this is certainly true. But does this really mean that we can't know the demand for anything? Does it really mean that it's irrelevant how much money people are willing to spend on things? Markets should be entirely discarded and replaced with... voting? I'm sure that this is not what you're suggesting... yet you're bringing up ability to pay as if it would somehow only be relevant to donors to the Libertarian Party using their donations to signal the value of potential convention themes. Actually, the ability to pay (or the lack thereof) is relevant to all markets. So if you're arguing that it invalidates the spending info for one market... then your argument has to be applicable to all markets.

If we prevent people from using their money to help determine the value of things... then things will be incorrectly valued. When things are incorrectly valued, things will be incorrectly used. When things are incorrectly used, people will be worse off. Therefore, the degree and extent to which people are currently worse off... reflects the degree and extent to which we prevent people from using their money to help determine the value of things.

Right now you believe that the products at your grocery store are going to be correctly continued or discontinued because shoppers are allowed to use their money to help determine the value of the products.

Yet you also believe that the shows on Netflix are going to be correctly continued or canceled despite the fact that subscribers aren't allowed to use their money to help determine the value of the shows.

And of course you don't believe that Netflix can read the minds of its subscribers. Instead, you believe that subscribers already provide enough information for Netflix to make adequately informed decisions. But even Netflix acknowledges that ratings are less trustworthy than viewing habits. Except, how can viewing habits be more trustworthy than spending decisions? And it's not like Netflix can compare the two sets of information. It doesn't even see the point in having the information about spending. And there isn't a single subscriber who is interested in providing this information. Except for me. And one of my friends. I suppose there might be a few more people out there who would see the point of using their fees to inform Netflix. In any case we certainly aren't the rule.

The idea of using our money to inform each other sounds so simple and solid. We already do use our money to inform each other. We subscribe to Netflix. This informs everyone that we value Netflix's content more than we value the alternative uses of our money...

Netflix's content > alternative uses

We clearly and obviously empower Netflix to compete society's limited resources away from less valuable alternative uses. Yay!!!!!

There's one very basic premise here: we don't equally value Netflix and the alternatives. Except, this is just as true for Netflix's content! Nobody equally values Netflix's content.

If we could spend our fees on our favorite content, then this would inform Netflix that we value our favorite content more than we value the alternative uses of our fees...

favorite content > alternative content

We would clearly and obviously empower the producers of our favorite content to compete society's limited resources away from the producers of less valuable content. Yay!!!!!!!!! Yay?

People get excited about finding a $100 dollar bill on the sidewalk...and graduating... and getting engaged... and having a baby... and getting a promotion... and writing a bestseller... and winning the lottery. Yes, these things and many more are very reasonable justifications for excitement. But in the grand scheme of things.... all of these things are subordinate to empowering more beneficial producers to compete society's limited resources away from less beneficial producers. Therefore, nothing should excite us more than markets. We should be the most excited about markets because they facilitate the most excitement. If Netflix was a market... then we'd be able to use our fees to inform everyone how excited we are about our favorite shows. Netflix and other producers would be able to use this information to supply even more exciting shows. Yay!!!!!!!!!

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Markets maximize the exchange of information by maximizing the rationality of persuasion

Another reply to Adam Gurri

*********************************************************

Language isn't subjective... it isn't objective... it's conjective!  Yeah!  Thanks to our exchange I now know this!  And I'm sure it's relevant to our disagreement... but I'm not quite sure just how relevant it is.

Personally I've invented quite a few words.  But I'm not much of a wordsmith so I would be really surprised if any of them caught on.  One word that I invented is "linvoid".  It's a word for a word that needs to be invented.  McCloskey spotted a linvoid and she channeled her inner wordsmith and voila!  Now we have "conjective"!

I think that, when it comes to the topic of persuasion... there are quite a few pretty big linvoids.

Frank the salesman knocks on the Smith's door.  Billy Smith answers the door.  Billy's just a kid.  Does Frank try and persuade him to buy his product?  No.  Why not?  Because Billy's just a kid!   So Frank doesn't try and persuade him to buy his product.  Instead, Frank tries to persuade Billy to go get his mom or dad.

Billy runs to get his dad.  Bob Smith comes to the door and Frank introduces himself and tries to persuade Bob to buy what he's selling.  What's Frank trying to sell?  Something tangible like a vacuum?  Ok.  Something intangible like religion or vegetarianism?  Sure.

If Frank successfully persuades Bob to become a vegetarian... then Bob will choose to stop buying meat.  The choice is Bob's to make.  So we wouldn't be very surprised if Frank does try and persuade Bob to stop buying meat.  It's entirely rational for Frank to take the time and make the effort to share his information about the benefits of vegetarianism with Bob.  Why is it rational?  Because if Bob sees the merit/truth/validity of Frank's information... then Bob is entirely free to act on it.

Would it be rational for Frank to try and persuade Bob to become a pacifist?  Kinda!  Bob can certainly buy the idea of pacifism... but it's not like he can very easily act on this idea.  It's a lot harder to boycott war than it is to boycott meat!  Clearly it's not impossible to boycott war.  Bob could certainly stop paying taxes and risk going to jail.  He could also stop earning money... then he wouldn't have any taxes to pay.  Given that there's a much higher (transaction?) cost for boycotting war than boycotting meat... it becomes that much less likely that Frank would take the time and make the effort to persuade Bob to become a pacifist.

What comes to mind is locus of control (LOC).  Choosing to boycott meat is a decision that Bob is entirely free to make.  So the locus of control is internal.  Choosing to boycott war is a different story.  Bob is not entirely free to make this decision.  So the locus of control is more external.  The terminology doesn't work perfectly though because LOC is primarily an issue of perception.  But in the case of boycotting war... the cost of doing so is real rather than imagined.

Another thing that comes to mind is modular versus monolithic.  In terms of persuasion... vegetarianism is modular while pacifism is more monolithic.  Each time a person becomes a vegetarian... marginally less meat is purchased/produced.  But each time a person becomes a pacifist...  marginally less war is not purchased/produced.  Modularity allows for small and incremental improvements to be made.  Modularity facilitates the exchange of less desirable traits for more desirable traits.  In other words... modularity facilitates evolution/progress.

In some cases the "product" being sold has to be monolithic.  For example... when the product is mutually exclusive.  Like in the example of the confederate flag.  Other examples include gay marriage and the legality of drugs.  These are yes/no issues rather than matters of degree.

What would happen to persuasion if we replaced voting with spending?  Well... we would clearly see the intensity of people's preferences.  This would allow us to make far more informed decisions with regards to persuasion.

From my perspective... society works better when more, rather than less, information is exchanged.  We maximize the amount of information that's exchanged by maximizing people's freedom to act on information.  This is how and why markets work.  This is how and why it's a problem wherever and whenever markets are missing.

So how many linvoids did you spot?  In theory... creating words for all the biggest linvoids would facilitate a far more productive discussion on the topic of persuasion.

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Persuading Puppets Is Pointless

My reply to Adam Gurri

***********************************************

You're correct that it's a huge leap!  But you really don't need to leap the chasm... there's a perfectly functional bridge.  It's called "diversity".  Markets are inherently diverse.  Let's say that an asteroid destroys our planet tomorrow.  Who do we blame for humanity's extinction?  Alex Tabarrok?  Nope...

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/06/planetary-defense-is-a-public-good.html

Maybe we blame Mark Lutter?  Nope...

"With humanity concentrated on earth, an errant asteroid could wipe out civilization. Nuclear war could end human life. Rogue AI could eliminate humanity. Colonizing other planets limits the destructive potential of such threats. If life on earth is wiped out, Mars would still thrive. Private space exploration literally has the potential to save humanity."

https://medium.com/@marklutter/building-autonomous-for-profit-cities-4533f668a591#.kvfru0rm2

Of course we don't blame these two individuals.  Do we blame the market then?  Well no... contrary to Lutter's argument for private space exploration... we're talking about a public good here.  Therefore... the not-market would be entirely to blame for human extinction.  Centralization, by definition, limits the variety of the very different paths that individuals would be naturally inclined and incentivized to take.   Centralization, by definition, puts far too many eggs in far too few baskets.

If people were free to choose where their taxes go then we would have a market in the public sector.  As a result, public goods would be just as diverse as private goods.  This is because the demand for ALL goods is inherently diverse.  You and I wouldn't put the same exact public goods in our shopping carts just like we don't put the same exact private goods in our shopping carts.

Progress is a function of difference.  Sexual reproduction is all about difference and voila!  Here we are!

Regarding Schumpeter's "corrections"... any such thing is the logical, but extremely detrimental, consequence of centralization.  With the current system there are public "shepherds" who are so confident in their information that they are very eager to limit the natural diversity of markets.

Don't get me wrong... we need rules/regulations to protect diversity.  But nearly all of our rules/regulations do the very opposite.

Regarding the physicists... you seem to appreciate the benefit of persuasion.  So do I!   Persuasion is a function of choice though.  Take away people's choices and it becomes entirely unnecessary to persuade them.  If people are marionettes... then it's pointless to try and persuade them.  If you want marionettes to behave differently... then you're going to have to try and persuade whoever is pulling the strings.

Allowing people to choose where their taxes go would cut all the strings.  So we'd have infinitely more persuasion than we currently have.

For me it's not difficult to cleanly separate not-market factors from market factors.  You're an intelligent guy.  And you can't choose where your taxes go.  If the economy struggles in any way... then it's because your difference (creativity/intelligence/knowledge/foresight) and Tabarrok's difference and Lutter's difference and the difference of millions and millions of other people has been and continues to be squandered to a significant extent.

Our system needs to be less like Hitler and more like Churchill...

"Since the Germans drove the Jews out and lowered their technical standards, our science is definitely ahead of theirs." - Winston Churchill

Monday, January 13, 2014

The Persuasion Process is Priceless

"The Persuasion Process is Priceless"

No results found!  What a great discovery!

Reply to: Division of Representation

*******************************************

Again, I find the premise extremely workable because I've studied economics. What you wrote demonstrates that you don't understand the significance of the opportunity cost concept. Given your example...perhaps you're interested in conservation? If so, then I highly suggest you read this...Handbook of Biodiversity Valuation

How many times is the opportunity cost concept discussed in that book? Why is it mentioned so often?

Let's pretend that there are only two things to spend our money on...producing food and studying spotted elk. If we correctly assume limited funding...then the more money we spend on studying the elk...the less money we'll have to spend on the production of food. More elk information comes at the cost of less food. There's a definite trade-off...and there's always a trade-off.

I think you agree we'd screw ourselves if everybody spent all their money on studying elk. If no money was spent on food we'd all starve to death. So clearly there's some optimal allocation...which is also known as "efficient allocation". That's the distribution of funding which will provide the maximum benefit to society.

We could easily determine the efficient allocation simply by allowing people to decide for themselves how they'll divvy their money between the two options. It's necessary to do this because we can't determine the most valuable allocation for society if we don't receive direct input from each and every citizen. How can we know how much of each good should be supplied if we don't know how much of each good people want more of? People have different preferences, concerns, interests and circumstances. If we didn't then we wouldn't be debating!

In reality, we have far more than just two goods. Where should the resources that are used to study the spotted elk be taken from? They have to come from somewhere. Should they be taken from studying Florida's Ghost Orchid? Should they be taken from studying how to reduce pollution? Maybe they should be taken from the war on drugs? It's a really really really long list to choose from.

Markets work because each and every consumer has the freedom to decide what they'll give up for the things that they want. Without this prioritization...it's a given that society's limited resources are going to be wasted on less valuable uses. They are going to flow the wrong directions.

There absolutely has to be a way to accurately communicate exactly how much value is derived from the various uses of society's limited resources. So we create a market in the public sector and allow taxpayers to communicate just how much value they derive from learning about spotted elk. And chances are good that perhaps you're not going to be happy with the preferences of society as a whole. But how can you complain that society's heart is in the wrong place when you don't even know where it's at?

I want more people to value tax choice. So here I am. Spending my time accordingly. Trying to change the preferences of society. The alternative is anathema. Shall I hack your facebook page and like tax choice for you? No way. The persuasion process is priceless. Here you are participating in it and arguing against its importance.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Noah Smith's Critique of Pragmatarianism

I've certainly "harassed" a lot of people about pragmatarianism.  But nobody has consistently endured my repeated pestering longer than Noah Smith has.  For example...here's my very first comment on his Sept 2010 blog entry...
Allowing tax payers to vote with their taxes would lead to the most efficient division of labor between the public and private sector.
The only difference between public and private goods is that, with public goods, people can free-ride off the contributions of others. Add the element of coercion (taxes) and the invisible hand can allocate public resources as efficiently as it can allocate private resources.
That was the only comment on his blog entry...and he didn't even respond.  After a few more comments he still didn't respond so I created a blog entry to document his lack of response...The Ostrich Response to Pragmatarianism.  That manged to get a response out of him...which was..."I guess it's just that I have trouble understanding what you write..."  Ehh....oh.  I did get a C in one English class...so...it wasn't like he was the first to bring that to my attention.  Writing definitely does not come easy to me so I found his response to be somewhat reasonable.

After several more attempts to engage him on the idea of allowing taxpayers to directly allocate their taxes...I took my usual summer break from promoting pragmatarianism.  That seemed to do the trick!  Absence makes the heart grow fonder!  Here's our discussion from his latest blog entry...EconoTrolls: An Illustrated Bestiary

Xero: Hah...you saved the best for last! This post alone was worth adding your blog to my blog roll.

Now I feel obligated to live up to my reputation. But I'm so tuckered from trolling so many other places that I don't know if I can muster the effort to spam you. Oh wait...I already did. [I linked the words in that sentences to other places I had discussed pragmatarianism]

Have you ever had Spam Musubi? My gf is from Hawaii...it's her favorite dish...she thinks it's deeeelish. Then again...her favorite movie is Dumb and Dumber. That probably explains why she's dating me.

What's with the uncategorizable though? Maybe I haven't said "pragmatarianism" enough times? Oh oh...and I think I'd go with this as my one liner... "Here I am...trying to convince you that it's a brilliant idea that leaders of government organizations should be forced convince you that their brilliant ideas are worth your taxes. So many brilliant ideas...so few resources! That's how economics works."

Well...since I'm here anyways...[truncated]

Noah: Awww, I missed you Xerographica! Not sarcasm. :)

FWIW, people choosing which programs their tax dollars go to presents a coordination problem. Imagine if the budget last year for highway-building was $50B. Now imagine that everyone thinks they did a good job and highways are important, so they allocate more to highways. But since they all do it at once, the highway-building dept. now has $500B this year. What do they do with all that extra cash?

Xero: Heh, missing a troll of any sort is way bad precedent.

Too much extra cash? Here's the simple answer. Brace yourself...because this might sound absurd...but I'm guessing that each government organization would have a fundraising progress bar on its website. And...just like in the non-profit sector...taxpayers would be able to pay their taxes at anytime throughout the year.

Here's a fun "fact" that I learned the hard way (via a speeding ticket and traffic school)..."A $10 million investment in public transportation results in a $30 million gain in sales for local businesses." Does that mean that a $100 million investment in public transportation results in a $300 million gain in sales for local businesses? I have no idea what the curve would look like...but I can guarantee that every single government organization would want to maximize their revenue...just like most taxpayers would intuitively understand the idea of diminishing returns.

Now for the complicated answer. The other day I was driving at the speed limit on the freeway when I noticed a couple cars ahead pull over to the side of the freeway. I instantly assumed they had gotten into an accident but then more and more cars started pulling over to the side. What did they know that I didn't? As I was slowing down and looking all around...I spotted something in the sky...it wasn't a bird...it wasn't superman...it was actually the shuttle Endeavor.

If all the blind men agree that they are touching an elephant...if both libertarians and liberals allocate 100% of their taxes to the Dept of Defense...then is it a coordination problem or is everybody seeing Godzilla heading our way? If everybody you know buys the new iPhone...is that a coordination problem...or a bandwagon problem...or a bubble...or a fad...or just our consumer culture at work? Personally...I would never buy an Apple product...just like some people would never buy spam. Our wide diversity of perspectives, interests, values, concerns, fears and hopes would ensure heterogeneous activity in a pragmatarian system. So if everybody should happen to bet on the same horse...then you'd have to ask yourself whether they know something that you do not.

Eh, don't take my word for it. Just e-mail Peter Boettke...after all...the name of his blog is "Coordination Problem". If you haven't read his new book yet...my offer to buy it for you still stands.

Noah: OK, so what determines the size of the fundraising bars? Isn't there an incentive for govt. agencies to say they need much more than they actually need?

Xero: Definitely...but it would be checked and balanced by taxpayers wanting more for less. That's the basic dynamic involved every time you spend your own money. You want to purchase products at the lowest possible price and producers want to sell their products at the highest possible price. The bargaining process is what incorporates all our perspectives (information, values, interests, concerns, hopes, dreams, etc) into determining how limited resources are used.

Public goods don't have literal price tags on them...and you aren't going to sit by the door waiting for the EPA to send you a box of environmental protection. But when you give your money to the EPA...you're actually giving them a portion of your life. Here's the quote from Henry David Thoreau that "Name" shared in the comments..."The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it." How much of your life is protecting the environment worth?

Who are taxpayers? They are the people that produce the products/services that we voluntarily exchange our lives for. That's why they are our true representatives. And if I feel like Jeff Bezos is failing to represent my interests in the public sector....then I can easily give him less money to spend in the public sector simply by choosing not to shop on Amazon.

J.S. Mill referred to bonsai trees a few times in On Liberty. A bonsai apple tree won't produce nearly as much fruit as an apple tree that has had the opportunity to reach its full potential. Perhaps liberals perceive that poor people, through no fault of their own, are like bonsai trees...and we would greatly benefit as a society by giving them whatever they need to reach their full potential. Clearly giving them all iPhones wouldn't help them reach their full potential...so what would? Options...giving them more options. But options are created by giving people the freedom to come up with new and innovative uses for limited resources. For example, people now have the option to become pilots because the Wright Brothers had the freedom to apply their unique perspectives to their limited resources.

Having more options in life is having more freedom and more freedom leads to more options. So we give taxpayers the freedom to choose how they spend their own taxes in the public sector. This freedom will invariably lead to more options and everybody will greatly benefit.

In other words...a mind is a terrible thing to waste. If you can't choose how you spend your time/money then your mind is wasted. By allowing 538 congresspeople to spend taxpayers' money...we are wasting the minds of 150 million of our most productive citizens. Well...partially wasting. Socialist experiments have already demonstrated the consequences of completely wasting the minds of your citizens. Yet...we still allow a small group of government planners to decide how 1/4 of our nation's revenue is spent.

Errr...somewhat less seriously...I figure government organizations would create commercials kind of like Pat Robinson asking people to donate money for an interstellar cruiser. Would you spend any of your taxes on an interstellar cruiser? Yes? Well don't blame me if you wake up on Mars one day...it was your tax allocation decisions that contributed to the NASA bubble.

Noah: OK, but how would taxpayers know how much each agency needed? They can determine how much money they give, but the amount of money requested is set by the agency, right? So if the agency sets its website fundraising thermometer with a max of $100B when it can only really spend $50B effectively, how do people know when to stop giving it money?

Xero: Errr...because you would tell them.  You would create a blog entry that offers conclusive proof that the Dept of Transportation can only really effectively spend $50 billion dollars.  Isn't that what economists are for?  And then the Dept of Transportation would offer conclusive evidence that refutes your conclusive evidence.  And then all the trolls would chime in with their own conclusive evidence.

And taxpayers would be swimming in all sorts of conclusive evidence.  Why?  Because we forced government organizations to "solely" rely on persuasion.  Persuasion is the most wonderfullest thing.  It's really hard to overestimate its value.  Without persuasion there wouldn't be any information.  A person holding a gun doesn't have to explain to you why you should give him your money.  But if he didn't have the gun then he would be forced to explain that he wants your money to buy drugs.  That information would not persuade you to give him your money...which is why he resorted to using a gun in the first place.

Capitalism works because people are forced to solely rely on persuasion if they want your life...which explains exactly why socialism does not work.

If you understand the value of persuasion...then you will very much appreciate that Milton Friedman was not overreacting in this video when an interviewer started to ask him a hypothetical..."if you were a dictator for a day..." question.  Friedman quickly cut him off and emphatically said..."If we can't persuade the public that it's desirable to do these things, then we have no right to impose them even if we had the power to do it."  Oh man oh man!  That perfectly embodies the difference between capitalism and socialism...the difference between conceit and humility.  As Hayek said..."The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."

In a pragmatarian system...because of the possibility of the free-rider problem...people would still be forced to pay taxes anyways...so the gun would still be there.  But that doesn't mean that we have to eliminate persuasion from the equation.  We force people to pay taxes but we should solely rely on persuasion to convince them to spend their money...to spend a significant portion of their lives...on the public goods that we believe are underfunded.

Another way of looking at persuasion...and understanding what impels people to act...is from the perspective of "unease".  I disagree with Mises on quite a few points...but it's really hard to find anybody who has explained the general idea of human action as effectively and concisely as he did...

"We call contentment or satisfaction that state of a human being which does not and cannot result in any action. Acting man is eager to substitute a more satisfactory state of affairs for a less satisfactory. His mind imagines conditions which suit him better, and his action aims at bringing about this desired state. The incentive that impels a man to act is always some uneasiness. A man perfectly content with the state of his affairs would have no incentive to change things. He would have neither wishes nor desires; he would be perfectly happy. He would not act; he would simply live free from care."

The amount of funding that government organizations received would reflect our levels of unease.  If the thought of taxpayers giving too much money to the Dept of Transportation made you uneasy then you'd blog about it.  If your unease was based on solid evidence...then your evidence would make taxpayers uneasy and influence their tax allocation decisions.

What makes me uneasy is not knowing what is truly making 150 million of our most productive citizens uneasy.  Why wouldn't we want to find out?  How can we prioritize how we spend our limited resources when we don't truly know what the biggest public concerns of our nation actually are?

Truthfully signalling our biggest concerns will help our brightest minds understand exactly where they can make the biggest impact in our lives.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Children's Suffrage

Everybody should have the right to try and protect their interests.  This is the basis for both universal suffrage and pragmatarianism.  

Universal suffrage is far from universal in that it still excludes around 25% of the population from voting.  So for some time now I've been advocating children's suffrage.  It's fun to promote because every argument that adults give against kids voting can also be used against adults voting.  Therefore, either everybody votes or nobody votes.  

Here are some of the places where I have promoted universal suffrage...
Just recently I ran across this great paper advocating children's suffrage.  The author, Leo Semashko, offers a ton of very persuasive arguments why kids should be enfranchised.  However, rather than advocating that children should be allowed to directly vote the author makes the argument that they should be allowed to vote by proxy.  This type of voting by proxy is known as Demeny Voting.  Semashko's reasoning for not allowing kids to vote is that they are incapable of articulating their interests.  

Heck, sometimes I have a hard time articulating my interests.  I'm certainly interested in the invisible hand but struggle when trying to describe the concept to some random person.  Same thing with pragmatarianism.  The point of this blog is to hopefully catch the attention of somebody that can more effectively articulate the idea of pragmatarianism.  

Again, we see that every argument against kids voting can also be used against adults voting.  We shouldn't need persuasive reasons to allow kids to vote.  We should just recognize and respect that everybody should have the right to try and protect their interests...even if their interests conflict with our own.