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Showing posts with label omniscience. Show all posts
Showing posts with label omniscience. Show all posts

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Spotlight On Max Sawicky

Most people love attention, me no less than anyone... - Max Sawicky

I just finished reading Henry Farrell's response to Sawicky's review of Brink Lindsey's and Steven M. Teles' new book The Captured Economy.  Since Sawicky loves attention, I figured that I'd give him some of mine.  Will he love it?

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Dear Sawicky,

If you look above this blog entry you'll see a tab that says "Resources".  That page has a list of over 50 links to some of the most important articles, blog entries, scholarly papers and books about economics.  So far there is only one link to the jacobinmag.com website... Can We Criticize Foucault?

Have you read that article?  It's pretty great.  To be honest, I value it more than your own article...

Foucault article > your article

Which article do you value more?  Which jacobinmag article do you value most?  Does it matter? 

Personally, I think that people's valuations really matter.  So it's very troubling to me how many places there are where people aren't given the opportunity to share their valuations.  In other words, I'm troubled by all the places that aren't markets. 

Netflix, for example, is not a market.  Each month Netflix decides how to divide my $10 dollars among all its products.  This wouldn't be so problematic if Netflix was a mind-reader.  Or my best friend forever.  Or my lover.  Or my brother.  Or my mother.  But Netflix is none of these things.  It's just some company. 

Vons is also just some company.  But, unlike Netflix, Vons does give me the opportunity to decide for myself how I divide my money among all its products. 

What difference would it make if Netflix subscribers could decide for themselves how to divide their dollars?  I've already asked a few economists but they really didn't know.  How could they not know what difference the Invisible Hand would make? 

Do you know what difference the Invisible Hand would make?

The stage, and spotlight, they are all yours.  Please make good use of them. 

Sincerely,
Xero

Sunday, June 4, 2017

The Pragmatarian Model For The Adam Smith Institute

Ben Southwood is the Head of Research at the Adam Smith Institute.  He recently shared a critique of public choice theory.  So he basically criticized my second favorite economist... James Buchanan.  The attention that Southwood has allocated to Buchanan is certainly better no attention.  However, I have to admit that the quality of the attention is rather disappointing... especially since it came from the Head of Research at an organization named after my favorite economist... Adam Smith.

In order to fully grasp the deficiency of Southwood's critique, it's necessary to fully grasp the most basic, fundamental and elementary economic problem...

Society's wants: unlimited
Society's resources: limited

From Buchanan...

The concept of opportunity cost (or alternative cost) expresses the basic relationship between scarcity and choice. If no object or activity that is valued by anyone is scarce, all demands for all persons and in all periods can be satisfied. There is no need to choose among separately valued options; there is no need for social coordination processes that will effectively determine which demands have priority. In this fantasized setting without scarcity, there are no opportunities or alternatives that are missed, forgone, or sacrificed. - James M. Buchanan
A nation cannot survive with political institutions that do not face up squarely to the essential fact of scarcity: It is simply impossible to promise more to one person without reducing that which is promised to others. And it is not possible to increase consumption today, at least without an increase in saving, without having less consumption tomorrow. Scarcity is indeed a fact of life, and political institutions that do not confront this fact threaten the existence of a prosperous and free society. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner, Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes

Understanding scarcity means understanding that society must prioritize.  Society's unlimited wants aren't equally relevant.  Some wants are more socially relevant than others.  The relevance of society's wants must be known in order for its limited resources to be efficiently allocated.  From Smith....

It is thus that the private interests and passions of individuals naturally dispose them to turn their stocks towards the employments which in ordinary cases are most advantageous to the society. But if from this natural preference they should turn too much of it towards those employments, the fall of profit in them and the rise of it in all others immediately dispose them to alter this faulty distribution. Without any intervention of law, therefore, the private interests and passions of men naturally lead them to divide and distribute the stock of every society among all the different employments carried on in it as nearly as possible in the proportion which is most agreeable to the interest of the whole society. — Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations

In a market, consumers decide how to divide their limited dollars among their unlimited desires.  This inclusive, substantial, and specific prioritization process optimally (efficiently) divides society's limited resources among its unlimited wants.

With this prioritization process in mind, let's consider the issue of public goods.  From Paul Samuelson's 1954 paper ...

But, and this is the point sensed by Wicksell but perhaps not fully appreciated by Lindahl, now it is in the selfish interest of each person to give false signals, to pretend to have less interest in a given collective consumption activity than he really has, etc. — Paul Samuelson, The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure

The concern here isn't that people wrongly or incorrectly or inaccurately value public goods.  The concern is that, if people are asked how much they value national defense, for example, and they know that their answer will determine their payment, then they will have an incentive to pretend to value national defense less than they truly do.  Conversely, if people know that their answer will not determine their payment, then they will have an incentive to pretend to value national defense more than they truly do.  Both cases are problematic because they will result in society's limited resources being incorrectly divided.  In the first case too few resources will be allocated to defense.  In the second case too many resources will be allocated to defense.  Society really doesn't benefit from a shortage or a surplus of defense.

It's crucial to appreciate that false signals are a problem because they incorrectly divide society's limited resources.  It should be crystal clear that the correct division of resources depends on true signals.  The inherent challenge is that the truth of signals can only be known by the people themselves.

Therefore... what?  Samuelson immediately jumped to voting as the solution?  Nope.  In order to create a pretty model, he simply assumed omniscience on the part of government planners.

Buchanan was not a fan of assuming omniscience on anyone's part.  In 1963 he responded...

Under most real-world taxing institutions, the tax price per unit at which collective goods are made available to the individual will depend, at least to some degree, on his own behavior. This element is not, however, important under the major tax institutions such as the personal income tax, the general sales tax, or the real property tax. With such structures, the individual may, by changing his private behavior, modify the tax base (and thus the tax price per unit of collective goods he utilizes), but he need not have any incentive to conceal his "true" preferences for public goods. - James M. Buchanan, The Economics of Earmarked Taxes

Let’s take Netflix for example…

Samuelson: The optimal quantity, quality and variety of movies depends on knowing the intensity of people’s preferences for movies. But if movies were freely available, and we asked people to report their valuation of specific movies, and they knew that their answer would determine their payment, then they would have an incentive to under-report their valuation. Therefore, we need Netflix. Subscribers will pay a fee, Netflix will “divine” their preferences and spend their fees accordingly.

Buchanan: Since Netflix subscribers are already paying fees, if they are given the option to earmark their fees to their favorite movies, they’d have absolutely no incentive to conceal their “true” preferences for movies.

Later on Buchanan put his criticism of the omniscience assumption like so...

What, then, does Barry mean (and others who make similar statements), when the order generated by market interaction is made comparable to that order which might emerge from an omniscient, designing single mind? If pushed on this question, economists would say that if the designer could somehow know the utility functions of all participants, along with the constraints, such a mind could, by fiat, duplicate precisely the results that would emerge from the process of market adjustment. By implication, individuals are presumed to carry around with them fully determined utility functions, and, in the market, they act always to maximize utilities subject to the constraints they confront. As I have noted elsewhere, however, in this presumed setting, there is no genuine choice behavior on the part of anyone. In this model of market process, the relative efficiency of institutional arrangements allowing for spontaneous adjustment stems solely from the informational aspects.

This emphasis is misleading. Individuals do not act so as to maximize utilities described in independently existing functions. They confront genuine choices, and the sequence of decisions taken may be conceptualized, ex post (after the choices), in terms of "as if" functions that are maximized. But these "as if" functions are, themselves, generated in the choosing process, not separately from such process. If viewed in this perspective, there is no means by which even the most idealized omniscient designer could duplicate the results of voluntary interchange. The potential participants do not know until they enter the process what their own choices will be. From this it follows that it is logically impossible for an omniscient designer to know, unless, of course, we are to preclude individual freedom of will.

Public choice attacks the omniscience assumption.  Southwood probably doesn't believe that anybody is omniscient.  So then, what does he believe?  Does he believe, like Buchanan and Samuelson did, that the optimal division of resources depends on true signals?  If so, does Southwood also believe that true signals can be revealed/communicated/transmitted by voting?  Does he seriously believe that direct democracy can optimally divide society's limited resources among its unlimited wants?  Does he truly believe that shopping is a massive waste of everybody's limited time, energy and brainpower?

The fact of the matter is that the Adam Smith Institute (ASI) is not a market.  Donors aren't given the opportunity to divide their donations among the ASI's numerous products.  The order (relative importance) of the ASI's products/topics is not determined by the Invisible Hand (IH), and it's not determined by the Democratic Hand (DH)... so it must be determined by the Visible Hand (VH).

In the ASI's case, the debate isn't about compulsory versus voluntary contributions to public goods.  It's purely and simply a matter of which hand is better at dividing the ASI's limited resources.  My theory is that the IH would do the best job, by far, of dividing the ASI's resources.  So should I provide a strong and wonderful argument in favor of replacing the VH with the IH?  What's the alternative?  Southwood should provide a strong and wonderful argument against replacing the VH with the IH?

After I publish this entry, I'll try and bring it to Southwood's attention by using Twitter.  After all, Twitter is how his entry was brought to my attention.  Twitter divides our limited attention among unlimited articles.  But does it efficiently allocate our attention?


From Adam Smith's perspective, the efficient division of limited resources depends on people dividing their limited dollars among their unlimited desires.  Attention is certainly a limited resource.  Yet, members of Twitter don't use their dollars to allocate each other's limited attention.  Twitter is not based on Smith's perspective.  Neither is the ASI.  Donors don't use their dollars to allocate each other's limited attention.

We shouldn't be surprised that Twitter is not based on Smith's perspective... but the ASI?  What hope can we have for Twitter, and the rest of the world, when even the Adam Smith Institute isn't based on Adam Smith's perspective?

Smith's perspective is either wrong or right.  Or, perhaps, somehow it's right for clothes, computers and cars... but it's wrong for articles, papers, posts and tweets.  I'll certainly admit that articles and clothes are different types of goods.  But even though articles are digital goods, and frequently public goods, their creation still requires the use of society's limited resources.  All the time that I spend writing about this topic is time that I can't also spend writing about other topics.  How should I divide my limited time among unlimited topics?  Should you answer this question with your dollars (Smith's perspective)?  Or should you answer this question with experts/leaders/committees/dictators (ASI's perspective)?  Or should you answer this question with cheap-talk (Twitter's perspective)?

Consider this blog written by 4th graders... Classtopia.  The entries on the homepage are sorted by the hand of time.  But the entries on this page are sorted by the Invisible Hand.

The IH is currently pretty small. It consists of the students, their teacher and myself. But in theory the IH could be as large as everybody in the world.  Everybody could use their money to grade the relevance of Classtopia's (home)work.  If every school was a market, then the IH would guide each and every student to their personally and socially optimal occupation.  If it makes sense for the IH to guide students... shouldn't it also guide prisoners?


My challenge to Southwood, and anybody else who reads this, is to come up with a coherent economic story.  Start with a solid foundation of scarcity and then construct a sound economic argument for inconsistently, or consistently, applying Smith's perspective.

I suppose that I should acknowledge that Smith himself didn't apply the IH to public goods, articles, tweets, Netflix shows or homework.  He didn't stand on his own shoulders.  Well... actually... he certainly recognized the importance of replacing Twitter's perspective with his own...

The people feeling, during the continuance of the war, the complete burden of it, would soon grow weary of it, and government, in order to humour them, would not be under the necessity of carrying it on longer than it was necessary to do so. The foresight of the heavy and unavoidable burdens of war would hinder the people from wantonly calling for it when there was no real or solid interest to fight for. - Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations 

Compare Adam Smith's solution to Noah Smith's solutions...

But as I see it, some kind of concentration is needed. Informational anarchy is always ruled by the Shouting Class, so the only way to curb the Shouters' power is to end the anarchy. Maybe social media platforms themselves will become the new quality filters. Maybe algorithmic blocking will use robots to shut down the Shouters. Maybe people will just stop using Twitter, and stop joining political argument groups on Facebook. Maybe everyone will make their profiles more private, and learn to unfollow people who engage in callout culture. - Noah Smith, The Shouting Class

Noah Smith didn't even mention Adam Smith's solution.  Why is that?

There's nothing inherently wrong with shouting.  The problem is when the crowd doesn't have the easy opportunity to put its money where its mouth is.

It should definitely be easy for people to point and shout "Watch out for that ________ !!!"   But the number of exclamation points that they are willing to use should be given far less credence than the number of their own dollars that they are willing to spend.  Admittedly, if you're walking down the street and somebody points and shouts "Watch out for that piano!!!" then perhaps you shouldn't wait for the shouter to put their money where their mouth is.  But this is a purely technical issue.  In all cases, tying shouts and spending together is the only way to maximize rational choice.

Noah Smith, Ben Southwood and I are planning to go backpacking.  Noah is going to carry everything but all three of us will vote on what to take.  Southwood and I might as well vote/shout for some luxuries.  It's not like we will have to directly pay the price of our decisions.  Our costs will be completely covered by Noah.  He's going to be our beast of burden.

Buchanan thoroughly understood the incredible importance of creating a solid bridge between choice and cost...

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Historically, legislative bodies, through which the preferences of individual citizens are most directly represented, have exercised more control over revenue or tax decisions than they have over expenditure decisions. In part this asymmetry has its origin in the development of democratic political institutions out of monarchial institutions. Representative bodies, parliaments, first achieved the power to restrict the tax-gathering privileges of the kings. Before taxes could be levied on the people, representative bodies were given the right to grant their approval. No consideration was given to the spending side of the account because public expenses were assumed to benefit primarily the royal court, at least in the early days of constitutional monarchy. Taxes were viewed as necessary charges on the people, but they were not really conceived as any part of an "exchange" process from which the people secured public benefits. It was out of this conception of the fiscal process that both the modern institutions and the modern theory of public finance developed. - James Buchanan The Bridge Between Tax and Expenditure in the Fiscal Decision Process

The emerging of modern democratic states dramatically modified the setting for the fiscal process, but only recently has attention been paid to the necessity of revising age-old norms. As royal courts came to be replaced by executives, and monarchies by republics, taxes continued to be viewed as necessary to sustain the expenses of “government,” with the burden of these taxes to be minimized to the maximum extent possible. Surprisingly little recognition has been given, even yet, to the idea that taxes must, in the final analysis, be considered as the “costs” of those public goods and services which provide benefits to the same people who pay taxes. - James Buchanan, The Bridge Between Tax and Expenditure in the Fiscal Decision Process

A second analytical principle emerged more than a century after Smith’s Wealth of Nations, and it was not explicitly incorporated into the norms for policy. But it may have been implicitly recognized. It is important because it reinforces the classical principles from a different and essentially political or public-choice perspective. In 1896, Knut Wicksell noted that an individual could make an informed, rational assessment of various proposals for public expenditure only if he were confronted with a tax bill at the same time. Moreover, to facilitate such comparison, Wicksell suggested that the total costs of any proposed expenditure program should be apportioned among the individual members of the political community. These were among the institutional features that he thought necessary to make reasonably efficient fiscal decisions in a democracy. Effective democratic government requires institutional arrangements that force citizens to take account of the costs of government as well as the benefits, and to do so simultaneously. The Wicksellian emphasis was on making political decisions more efficient, on ensuring that costs be properly weighed against benefits. A norm of balancing the fiscal decision or choice process, if not a formal balancing of the budget, emerges directly from the Wicksellian analysis. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes

The necessity of relating decisions on public expenditures explicitly to decisions on taxes through the political process, and of assigning a definite revenue category to each single expenditure was stressed by Wicksell in his classic statement of the individualistic theory of public finance (see Knut Wicksell, "A New Principle of Just Taxation," in Classics in the Theory of P'ublic Finance, ed. 1R. A. Musgrave and A. T. Peacock [London: International Economic Association, 1958], pp. 72-118, but esp. p. 94. The original Wicksell work is Finanztileorietisclie Uizlersuchlungen [Jena: Gustav Fischer, 1896]). - James Buchanan, The Economics of Earmarked Taxes

The most sophisticated contribution was made by Knut Wicksell in 1896.  He explicitly identified the fundamental methodological error in the then-orthodox approach, and he combined positive criticism with normative suggestions for reforms.  Wicksell recognized the necessity of bridging the two sides of the fiscal account, and he noted the indeterminacy of any proposed principles that were limited to tax-side considerations. - James Buchanan, Public Finance and Public Choice

In addition to the uncertainty factor, which can be readily understood to limit the range of rational calculus, the single individual loses the sense of decision-making responsibility that is inherent in private choice. Secure in the knowledge that, regardless of his own action, social or collective decisions affecting him will be made, the individual is offered a greater opportunity either to abstain altogether from making a positive choice or to choose without having considered the alternatives carefully. In a real sense, private action forces the individual to exercise his freedom by making choices compulsory. These choices will not be made for him. The consumer who refrains from entering the market place will starve unless he hires a professional shopper. Moreover, once having been forced to make choices, he is likely to be somewhat more rational in evaluating the alternatives before him. - Gordon Tullock, James Buchanan, Individuality Rationality in Social Choice

The introduction of the debt alternative to taxation makes the bridge between cost and benefit more difficult for the individual to construct. - James Buchanan, "Fiscal Policy" and Fiscal Choice

Institutionally, earmarking provides a means of compartmentalizing fiscal decisions.  The individual citizen, as voter-taxpayer-beneficiary, is enabled to participate, separately, either directly or through his legislative representative, in the several public expenditure decisions that may arise. He may, through this device, "vote" independently on the funds to be devoted to schools, to sanitation, and so on, given the specified revenue sources. Only in this manner can he make "private" choices on the basis of some reasonably accurate comparison of the costs and the benefits of the specific public services, one at the time.  By contrast, general-fund budgeting, or non-earmarking, allows the citizen to "vote" only on the aggregate outlay for the predetermined "bundles" of public services, as this choice is presented to him by the budgetary authorities. - James Buchanan, The Economics of Earmarked Taxes

Conceptually, an "ideal" institutional arrangement might be that of allowing individuals to "pay for" governmental goods and services in a manner analogous to that which they have found most convenient for financing consumer durables. The quarterly payments of tax on declarations of income above or outside withholding probably tend, on balance, to promote "logical" response to the income tax structure. It is the absence of any conscious sense of transfer, the absence of any monthly or quarterly bill, that represents the questionable feature of withholding, and one that may tend to create a Puviani-type illusion.  - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process: Fiscal Institutions and Individual Choice

Only one of these questions seems relatively easy to answer. If the individual can make separate fiscal choices for each public-goods program, which a structure of earmarked taxes conceptually allows him to do, directly or indirectly, he is informed as to the alternatives that he confronts, at least to the extent that the payment institutions allow, and subject, of course, to all of the qualifications noted in previous analysis. The uncertainty that he faces is clearly less than that which is present in the comparable decision on a “bundle” of public goods or services, with the mix among the separate components in the bundle to be determined in a separate decision process or through the auspices of a delegated budget-making authority. If this mix is not announced in advance to the voter-taxpayer, he must try to predict the outcome of another decision process, in which he may or may not participate, a process that need not exist at all in the more straightforward earmarking model where all revenue sources are specifically dedicated. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process: Fiscal Institutions and Individual Choice

In a balanced-budget context, a decision to spend publicly implies a decision to tax, and a decision to tax implies a decision to spend. Only if the actual institutions of fiscal choice are organized in such a way that this basic truism is reflected in the alternatives confronting the individual participant can these uncertainties be minimized. Much of the modern criticism of the United States Congress is directed at its failure to allow simultaneous consideration of expenditure and tax decisions. - James Buchanan, The Bridge Between Tax and Expenditure in the Fiscal Decision Process

Nevertheless, the fact remains that such choice embodies a direct correspondence between private cost and private benefit, the characteristic that is stressed here, and the one that is absent, in varying degree, from individual choice in collective decision processes.  This central feature of market choice, rather than any implied assumption of rationality, makes individual behavior in organized markets useful as a benchmark from which we begin to assess collective choice institutions. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process

Similar behavior can be predicted on the spending side of the account. If the individual citizen were asked, in mid-1963, his opinions on proposed expansions in the federal space program, he could, roughly and in some fashion, measure benefits in terms of sport, national prestige, adventure, technological fallout, etc. But what were the costs? He would not have translated the costs of the space program into increased taxes. And for a very simple reason: the individual knew that he would not have to pay such taxes. The predictable result of a democratic choice process is the generation of budget deficits when borrowing is available as an alternative to taxation unless deficit creation is not somehow restrained by constitutional limitations. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process: Fiscal Institutions and Individual Choice

The Clay committee has at last discovered the fiscal version of Aladdin's wonderful lamp, and that henceforth all governmental “good things” such as super-super highways may come to us without our having to bear either the burden of taxation of the sufferings of conscience over increasing national debt. - James Buchanan, Painless Pavements: Highways by High Finance

Good things come at a cost, whether they be provided by the government or the grocery store. - James Buchanan, Painless Pavements: Highways by High Finance

The apparent splitting of the fiscal process into two parts was shown to produce potential gaps between preferred spending on public goods and services and preferred levels of taxation. Until and unless these gaps are eliminated, budget deficits tend to emerge from democratic decision processes. - James Buchanan, "Fiscal Policy" and Fiscal Choice

Under the assumption that public output enters positively into the utility functions of citizens, the expenditure by itself will secure support for the politician. The taxes, however, will reduce the disposable income of citizens, thereby affecting them negatively and reducing support for the politician. In a plurality electoral system, for given preferences and fixed tax institutions, the budget will be expanded so long as a majority would prefer the public service to the private goods they would have to sacrifice via taxation. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes

The restoration of the balanced-budget rule will serve only to allow for a somewhat more conscious and careful weighting of benefits and costs. The rule will have the effect of bringing the real costs of public outlays to the awareness of decision makers; it will tend to dispel the illusory “something for nothing” aspects of fiscal choice. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes

Randall Bartlett makes the same point, only he uses a visual rather than an auditory metaphor. In his framework, some tax forms have higher visibility than others. Starting with perfect visibility, taxes can be arrayed in descending order of visibility. In both his analysis and ours, changes in the institutional format for extracting revenues will influence citizen perceptions of the cost of government. See Randall Bartlett, Economic Foundations of Political Power (New York: Free Press, 1973), pp. 92-95. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner, Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes

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Fully appreciating the necessity of bridging the gap between choice and cost depends entirely on fully appreciating the significance of scarcity.  Society's limited resources have to be divided between its unlimited wants.  In order to maximize the rationality, relevance, efficiency, benefit, value of the division, fiscal illusion must be minimized.  The only way to minimize fiscal illusion is for people to personally pay, and directly feel, the full and true cost of their choices.  Then, and only then, will society's limited resources be efficiently allocated. 

If people want a war, whether on drugs, terror or poverty, then they should definitely have the option to shout for these things... but they should not have the opportunity to pay for these things by reaching into other people's pockets.  They should only have the opportunity to reach into their own pockets.  Then, and only then, when they directly confront, consider, compare and calculate the (opportunity) costs of their own money, can they possibly make rational decisions regarding the true relevance/importance/necessity/urgency of the war.  When people only have the opportunity to reach into their own pockets then, and only then, will society's limited resources be optimally divided.  

A few years ago Robert Kuttner wonderfully wrote this article... Karl Polanyi Explains It All...

Yet Marx, for all of his stubbornly apt insights about capitalism, is an unreliable guide to its remediation. Polanyi, with the benefit of nearly a century’s worth more evidence, has a surer sense of how markets interact with society. 

Polanyi stood on Marx's shoulders.  Buchanan stood on Smith's shoulders.  Whose shoulders does Southwood want to stand on?  Whose shoulders does the ASI want to stand on?

My belief is that I'm correctly interpreting and understanding Smith and Buchanan.  But it's entirely possible that my belief is mistaken.  For example, Peter Boettke has studied Smith and Buchanan far more than I have.  And we certainly agree on some fundamentals...

I wonder how much progress could be made in political economy if the best and the brightest among economists, such as Raj Chetty, would take seriously the admonition of Hayek, Buchanan, and Elinor Ostrom that the assumptions of omniscience and benevolence must be rejected if we are going to make progress and develop a robust theory of political economy. - Peter Boettke, AEA Richard T. Ely Lecture --- Raj Chetty, "Behavioral Economics and Public Policy"

Yet, he's never argued that Netflix should be a market.  He's never endeavored to explain why the IH, rather than the VH, should determine the order (relative importance) of Netflix's content.  Boettke and I both agree that it's beneficial that Netflix is in a market, but he doesn't seem to perceive the benefit of Netflix being a market.  However, it's not like he has argued against Netflix being a market.  He has not argued that it would be detrimental for around 100 million subscribers to divide their limited fees among the unlimited shows and movies on Netflix.

How much would the content change if 100 million people could decide for themselves how their money is spent?  The amount of money spent would be exactly the same.  But it would be divided differently among the content.  How different would the division be?

A. The VH's division
B. The IH's division
C. The difference between A and B

Would Boettke seriously argue that C would be insignificant?  If he did, then wouldn't this entirely undermine his argument against socialism?  If planners can adequately figure out the movie preferences of 100 million people... then what, exactly, prevents planners from adequately figuring out the food preferences of 1 billion people?

Buchanan stood on Smith's shoulders by arguing that the IH should extend to the public sector.  I endeavor to stand on Buchanan's shoulders by arguing that the IH should also extend to Netflix, the ASI, the Roosevelt Institute, the Cato Institute, the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times and countless other organizations that should be, but are not, markets.  If Boettke is sure that I'm barking up the wrong tree, then of course I'd want him to share his perspective.  Same thing if he's sure that I'm barking up the right tree.  Same thing if he's unsure.

Boettke and I both agree that...

1. society's limited resources have to be divided among its unlimited wants
2. the omniscience assumption has to be destroyed
3. people's valuations of things must be known

When I assemble these three puzzle pieces they reveal a megareal world with markets everywhere.  Boettke has the same three pieces... so how could they reveal a different world?  Is he assembling the pieces differently?  Does he have additional puzzle pieces?

In this post I've endeavored to share, and elaborate on, the puzzle pieces that are entirely absent from Southwood's critique of public choice.  His critique doesn't reflect the relevance of the fact that Buchanan's public choice is solidly founded on the reality of scarcity.  As a result of Southwood's oversight, he is under the impression that "public choice doesn’t explain much at all."  Actually, public choice explains a lot.  But in order to fully appreciate the immensity of what public choice explains, it's entirely necessary to fully grasp the most elementary economic problem.  You first have to know and understand what the problem is before you can effectively evaluate a potential solution.

But it's entirely possible that my interpretation and understanding is incorrect.  My understanding of Smith has certainly influenced my understanding of Buchanan.  So I encourage Southwood to contact Boettke and ask for his perspective on the topic.  Ideally we should all put our heads together and figure out what markets are good for.

From my perspective, there's more than enough evidence that proves what markets are good for.  But since there's so much disagreement about the topic, it seems clear that we need more evidence.  The ASI becoming a market would provide additional evidence to help us figure out what markets are good for.  

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

My Well-Being Depends On Artichokes!

Reply to reply: No Such Thing As A Free Lunch

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Thus the government may fund things that a business would never fund because it increases the well being of a population, even though it may represent an opportunity cost or seem like it has little utility to the opposition. - Northern Light

You expect congress to make public goods choices with due consideration for my well-being. My well-being? In the private sector I have to spend so much time and energy going around informing producers what works for my well-being. I shop and shop and shop. For example, I go to the store and buy some artichokes. In doing so I tell Frank the farmer, "Hey! You correctly guessed that my well-being depends on artichokes! Thanks! Good lookin' out! Here's some money! Keep up the good work!"

Yet here you are telling me that congress can somehow know what works for my well-being despite the fact that I've never once in my life shopped in the public sector. It boggles my mind. It blows my mind. It bears repeating with emphasis... congress can know what works for my well-being despite the fact that I've never once in my life shopped in the public sector. If you think that this is really true... then please... don't hide your insight under a bushel. Start a thread here, there and everywhere and say "Hey folks! Shopping is entirely redundant! It's entirely unnecessary for us to spend so much of our limited time and energy using our cash to communicate what works for our well-being."

Then again, it pays to double check. E-mail your representative and ask them what works for your well-being. If they say general things like food and defense are you going to be super impressed? Are you super impressed when a fortune teller makes "divinations" that are so vague and general that they pretty much apply to everyone?

The market is based on the premise that producers really aren't mind-readers. So in order for the well-being of the population to truly increase, there has to be constant monetary communication between consumers and producers. You gotta use your hard-earned money to specify exactly what works for your well-being. You gotta use your money to advocate for yourself. Because nobody knows you better than you do.

Sunday, December 11, 2016

The private sector drops the ball?

My reply towhen the private sector drops the ball

**************************

The private sector drops the ball? There you are watching that one commercial with Sarah McLachlan and the abused dogs. And then, of course, you start tearing up and going *snif* *snif*. But do you call the number on the screen in order to make a donation? Nope. You drop the ball.

No worries! That’s what the government is there for! The government reaches into your purse, takes out $100 dollars… and gives it to ASPCA. Voila!

You dropped the ball but the government picked it up. That’s teamwork!

Actually… it’s not quite so simple to figure out who, exactly, dropped the ball. It’s easy to blame the education system for not teaching you about Wicksell…

It is impossible for anyone, even if he be a statesman of genius, to weigh the whole community’s utility and sacrifice against each other. — Knut Wicksell, A New Principle of Just Taxation

But can we really blame the education system? The education system is simply the product of our system of public finance.

Eh, it’s easiest just to blame myself. I dropped the ball. Sorry about that. But here am I endeavoring to pick it up.

So… if we assume that the $100 dollars that the government took out of your purse closely corresponds with how much you genuinely care about helping abused dogs… then yeah… there’s absolutely no problem with the government picking up the ball. However, this assumption would throw markets under the bus. Not just a little under the bus… but entirely under the bus.

There would be absolutely no point in anybody shopping if we want to assume that the government knows how much we truly value things.

And then you ask… but what about voting?! Well… if voting every few years was truly effective at communicating/conveying our valuation of things then again… markets get thrown entirely under the bus.

Therefore… what?

Therefore we apply the pragmatarian model to Medium. Each month we each pay $1 dollar… but we are given the freedom to choose which stories we spend our pennies on. So if you read a story about helping abused dogs and you start going *snif* *snif*… then you might as well spend some of your pennies on the story. The more pennies that get spent on that story… the more attention that will be given to the plight of abused dogs.

And if you don’t decide to spend your pennies on the story about helping abused dogs… then it’s a given that you’re saving your pennies up for more valuable stories. But you’re definitely not going to be spending your saved pennies at Sephora! You’ll only be able to spend them on stories that you truly value. Then I’ll be able to sort your recommended stories by your valuation of them. How cool would that be? It would only take me a second to learn which story you value most.

If we’re honest with ourselves then sure, the free-rider problem is a real problem. But assuming that government officials, who we’ve never even met, somehow know how much we truly care about things? Oh man, it’s by far the most ridiculous, and harmful, assumption ever made.

To be clear… no, I’m really not a libertarian. I’m a pragmatarian. I believe that taxes are wonderful and necessary… as long as the people who pay them are given the freedom to use them to improve our country. Of course what counts as “improvement” is entirely subjective. If it wasn’t subjective… then again, shopping would be thrown under the bus.

Monday, August 22, 2016

Jeff Jarvis' Critique of the Pragmatarian Model

In my previous blog entry... Cross Pollination: Journalists and Economists... I shared the pragmatarian model (Buchanan's solution) with the journalist, professor and author Jeff Jarvis.  Much to my pleasant surprise he took the time and made the effort to share his thoughts on the model.

I figured it's definitely worth dedicating a blog entry to carefully going through and considering his thoughts.   Before I do so, let me try and put the pragmatarian model in a nutshell.  It's basically the subscription model... but where subscribers can use their fees to communicate their valuation of the content.  For example, if we applied the model to Amazon Kindle Unlimited (KU)... then subscribers would be able to divvy up their $9.99/month fee however they wanted among the million plus titles.

Ok, so let's jump in...

1. You assume that our product is a thing called content: articles. You are trying to determine a market value and create a market for it. That's misplaced. The underlying value of journalism is the information it imparts and the service it provides. That value should be measured not in media terms ("how much is my article worth to you?") but in the public's terms ("how much did this help improve my life or my community?").

Let's say that Amazon KU switched to the pragmatarian model and your book, Geeks Bearing Gifts, was one of the titles that people could read and allocate their monthly fees to.  After reading your book... subscribers would then be able to answer this very important question... "how much did this book help improve my life or my community?"

How, exactly, would they be able to answer this question?  They would certainly still be able use the star rating system and write a review (contingent valuation techniques).  But they would also have the opportunity to use their monthly fees to answer this question (demonstrated preference).  It stands to reason that, the more of their monthly fees that they allocated to your book... the more it had helped improve their life and/or community.  And the more fees that people allocated to your book, the brighter its value signal.  And the brighter its value signal... the more likely that other people would see the value signal and be inspired to read and valuate your book.

To be clear, subscribers could continue allocating their fees to your book each and every month.  If Samantha, for example, really loved your book, and continued loving your book, then each month for the rest of her life she could use her fees to communicate her undying love for your book.  We could easily imagine that she'd end up paying a lot more for your book with the pragmatarian model than she would have with the current one-price-fits-all (OPFA) model.  For all intents and purposes... the pragmatarian model eliminates consumer surplus.  People's true valuation of books would no longer be largely latent.

So with the pragmatarian model... Amazon KU subscribers would have the opportunity to use their monthly fees to answer this very important question... "how much did this book help improve my life or my community?"

What would be wrong with their answer?  For sure you might disagree with it.  But what, exactly, would be wrong with it?   And how, exactly, could people provide a better, or more accurate, or more precise, or more concrete answer to the question?  Pretty much the only two options are stated preference (contingent valuation) and demonstrated preference.

2. Information is a commodity. Once it is known in a free society, it can and should travel freely. Thus copyright does not protect information. Information can't be owned. All that can be owned is the treatment of that information.

We just considered the pragmatarian model applied to Amazon KU.   At any time throughout the year subscribers could allocate their fees to the books that match their preferences.

Let's think bigger!  Let's apply the pragmatarian model to the government.  At anytime throughout the year taxpayers could allocate their taxes to the public goods that match their preferences.  Let's take it a step further and move all digital goods (books, movies, shows, music, software) over to the public sector.  Every book would be freely available.  Taxpayers would be free to allocate their tax dollars to the books that matched their preferences.  How many tax dollars would they allocate to your book?

Here's the important question again... "How much did this book help improve my life or my community?"  However, with the current context of your book being in the public sector... the question expands like so...

"How much did this book help improve my life or my community?  Did it help improve my life more than UCLA did?  Did it help improve my life more than the EPA does?  Did it help improve my life more than the war on terror does?  Did it help improve my life more than the war on drugs does?"

We treat digital goods like they are private goods.  The reality is that we should actually treat them like public goods.  But if, and only if, we have a market in the public sector.  We currently have a command economy in the public sector.  So if we moved all digital goods over to the current public sector... the results would be predictably disastrous.  The variety and quality of digital goods would plummet while their cost would skyrocket.

But if we created a market in the public sector and moved digital goods into it.... then people would look back at our current system and their minds would be blown by the sheer absurdity of spending money on a book before you've even read it.

3. Any economist should give worshipful respect to the concept of abundance and its impact on the market and pricing. The net creates abundance. It wrecks scarcities. Media made its business by controlling a scarcity ("I own the printing press and you don't so I get to say what goes on it and I set pricing for access to it, nya-nya-nya"). In an abundant market, the price of a commodity will inevitably fall toward zero, any economist's tricks notwithstanding.

"Nya-nya-nya"... heh.  Rare orchids that sold for $20,000 dollars a hundred years ago are now so abundant and cheap that people throw them out after they are done blooming.  But the only reason that these orchids are now so abundant is because the value signal for them used to be so bright.

Personally, my favorite book is, by far, Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations.  If we could choose where our taxes go... and digital goods were in the public sector... then I'd certainly want to allocate a lot of my taxes to this book.  Because, as far as I'm concerned, similarly wonderful books are painfully scarce.

My favorite movie is, by far, Wong Kar-wai's Chungking Express.  I saw it for the first time two decades ago and have yet to see another movie that comes even close to it.  If we could choose where our taxes go... and digital goods were in the public sector... then I'd certainly want to allocate a lot of my taxes to this movie.  Because, as far as I'm concerned, similarly wonderful movies are painfully scarce.

The only way that society's limited resources can be put to their most valuable uses is when our allocations accurately communicate/reflect our valuations.

Which is your favorite book?  Which is your favorite movie?  Did the amount of money that you spend on them accurately communicate the size of your love for them?  I'm pretty sure that it did not.  And the same is true for everybody else.  The logical result is that there's an abundance of popular content and a shortage of valuable content.  Creators are really really really not mind-readers.  So we deeply hurt ourselves when we hide our true valuations from creators.


4. I wrote about all this in my book, noting the pricing paradox of information: https://medium.com/geeks-bearing-gifts/the-pricing-paradox-of-information-1ace4fbcd9ff#.wjbczycwj


It's wonderful that you referenced Adam Smith... but he didn't really apply the Invisible Hand to public goods.  While I certainly wish that he had, it seems a bit greedy for me to do so.  Like, wasn't it enough that he came up with the Invisible Hand in the first place?  And when people talk about his Invisible Hand concept... they invariably quote the wrong passage.  Here's the right passage...

It is thus that the private interests and passions of individuals naturally dispose them to turn their stocks towards the employments which in ordinary cases are most advantageous to the society. But if from this natural preference they should turn too much of it towards those employments, the fall of profit in them and the rise of it in all others immediately dispose them to alter this faulty distribution. Without any intervention of law, therefore, the private interests and passions of men naturally lead them to divide and distribute the stock of every society among all the different employments carried on in it as nearly as possible in the proportion which is most agreeable to the interest of the whole society. - Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations 

This is the Invisible Hand.  And it's so so so beautiful.  Like I mentioned though, Smith didn't apply the Invisible Hand to public goods.  So when you're talking about the paradox of pricing information (a public good)... you need to cite the economist who did apply the Invisible Hand to public goods...

Under most real-world taxing institutions, the tax price per unit at which collective goods are made available to the individual will depend, at least to some degree, on his own behavior. This element is not, however, important under the major tax institutions such as the personal income tax, the general sales tax, or the real property tax. With such structures, the individual may, by changing his private behavior, modify the tax base (and thus the tax price per unit of collective goods he utilizes), but he need not have any incentive to conceal his "true" preferences for public goods. - James M. Buchanan, The Economics of Earmarked Taxes

If Medium, for example, switched to the pragmatarian model... then this would eliminate the paradox of pricing information.  Why?  Because subscribers would not have any need to conceal their "true" preferences for information.

Let's get more specific.  Here's a screen shot of your Medium story that you linked me to...




With a quick glance I can easily see that 45 people like your story.  But with a quick glance, or even a long glance, I can't see how much these 45 people like your story.  Can you see how much these 45 people like your story?  Nope.  You can't.  They didn't tell you and you're not a mind-reader.  You're not omniscient.  Nobody is.  Hence the importance of using cash to communication with each other.

So why didn't these 45 people use their cash to communicate their valuation of your story?  Because, why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?  It's the classic free-rider problem.  It's the basic problem with public goods.  It's the reason, or at least the best reason, for taxes.

But what if Medium switched to the pragmatarian model?  Would these 45 readers have any incentive to hide their true valuation of your story?  Nope.  Because doing so would not reduce their subscription fees.  Therefore, the amount of their fees that they allocated to your story would tell you exactly how much these 45 people value your story.   And just like that... the paradox of pricing information goes right out the window.


5. We need to fundamentally reinvent journalism not around mass-media economics and presumptions and not around the ideas of content and distribution but instead around how we help society organize its knowledge and improve their lives. Reach to relevance, volume to value.
But thanks for the attention!

The pragmatarian model really isn't mass-media economics!  Find me some mass-media types citing James Buchanan.  Need a hand?  Ok...

Nobel Prize winning economist James Buchanan died earlier this week, and I have to say he really stands out for such a highly regarded scholar as someone who's work I feel like I don't understand or appreciate. - Matthew Yglesias, James Buchanan: A Plea for Help

Fortunately enough the economist Tyler Cowen responded to Yglesias' please for help... What made Buchanan special as an economist?   But even Cowen didn't mention Buchanan's paper on earmarking.

Of course I'm biased... but I'm really sure that history will prove that Buchanan's paper was the most important "Easter Egg" to be overlooked.  Why am I so sure?  Because Buchanan's paper is the model that will help minimize the chances of important "Easter Eggs" being overlooked.

If we applied the pragmatarian model to Medium.... then every subscriber would be eagerly looking for Easter Eggs.  When subscribers found Easter Eggs... then they would use their fees to say, "Here's a good one!  Please don't overlook it!"  This entirely decentralized and highly incentivized process of discovering and valuating information would create a priceless treasure map.

This is really not how mass-media currently works.  This is not how scholarly papers work.  This is not how Google search results work.  This is not how Spotify, Amazon KU or Netflix work.  This is not how The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times,  The Financial Times or The Economist work.  This is not how the government works.  This is not how anything currently works.

So if you're pointing at any current system in order to criticize the pragmatarian model... then either I'm not doing a good job of explaining how the model is different (which is entirely possible)... or your criticism is way off target.  Because the differences really aren't minor... they are major.

The pragmatarian model represents a paradigm shift.   Hopefully you'll decide to give it another shot!  Hopefully you'll write a dozen best selling books about it!   If not, then no worries.  Thanks for the thoughts!

Saturday, August 20, 2016

Cross Pollination: Journalists and Economists

Every orchid sexual encounter is a ménage à trios— an orchid which wants to deliver its pollen to another orchid and a pollinator that is seduced into being their delivery boy. The hummingbird, of course, has no interest in this love tryst but is bribed with nectar into doing their reproductive work. - Carol Siegel, Orchids And Hummingbirds: Sex In The Fast Lane


Our economy is based on a division of labor.  Simply put, few people are a jack of all trades.  Specialization has greatly boosted productivity.  However, sometimes it really seems like the division of labor goes... boink.

Today I read this story... Death to the Mass: Media must rebuild its business around relevance and value, not volume.  It was wonderfully written by Jeff Jarvis who is a journalist and a professor at CUNY-J.  Yesterday I read a great overview of the general problem... John Oliver isn’t responsible for saving journalism.  It was written by Joe Amditis who is a grad student at CUNY-J.  In his story, Amditis shared this video...






All the media experts are scratching their heads and spending lots of money in order to try and find the solution.  Here's how Jarvis concluded his story...

To accomplish that, I believe the industries need cross-pollination. Perhaps the greatest benefit of Google’s Digital News Initiative and its Newsgeist events is that each side learns more about the other. At our next convening of product development executives in news, we will invite product (sorry: not business development) people from platforms so they can dig into specifics on small matters (e.g., Facebook and Google treat a news organization’s desire to update the news differently) and large (can we begin to build standards for data exchange?). News companies are desperate to hire technologists. I also suggest that the platforms would be well-served to hire senior journalists — just a few — not to build competitive news operations (who wants to go into that business?) but to act as translators between our cultures and, more importantly, to help the platforms better serve their own users. That is what we all want to do. None of us are kings. We are all merely servants of the public.

Jarvis is correct that cross-pollination is needed... but even though he argued that media should focus on value... he really doesn't seem to see the relevance of economists.  So here I am!  Kinda like a hummingbird!

Amditis is correct that John Oliver isn’t responsible for saving journalism.  But there's absolutely no need for Oliver to save journalism.  A Nobel Prize economist saved journalism half a century before it even needed to be saved!!!


1954: The Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Samuelson writes The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure. It has been cited nearly 8,000 times and is by far the most widely cited (popular) economic justification for government.  Samuelson's surprisingly short, yet quite dense, paper was basically about the free-rider problem.  He argued that we can't trust people to honestly communicate their valuations of public goods.  Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?

So did Samuelson save journalism?  Nope.  He correctly recognized that the free-rider problem was a real problem... but his solution was taxation (subscription) and planners (editors) simply assuming people's preferences.

1956: A young whipper snapper, Charles Tiebout, challenges Samuelson's conclusion by writing... A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures. It's been cited around 15,000 times. So it's even more popular than Samuelson's paper. Tiebout argued that people can and do honestly communicate their valuations of public goods... simply by moving to municipalities that offer bundles of public goods which more closely match their preferences. Aka voting with their feet... "foot voting".

So did Tiebout save journalism?  Nope.  Like Samuelson, he correctly recognized that the free-rider was a real problem.  And like Samuelson, his solution was taxation (subscriptions) and planners (editors) simply assuming people's preferences.  The difference is that in Tiebout's story, taxpayers (subscribers) communicate their preferences simply by moving to whichever municipality (newspaper) supplies the bundle of public goods (articles) which most closely match their preferences.  Of course this is a much better solution for articles than for other public goods because it's incredibly easier to move to a new newspaper than it is to move to a new city, state or country.  However, this is one of the solutions currently being used to save journalism... and it's obviously not working.

1963: The Nobel Prize winning economist James Buchanan writes The Economics of Earmarked Taxes. It's by far the least popular paper out of the three and has been cited less than 300 times. Buchanan basically argued that since people are paying taxes anyways, how they would earmark/allocate them, if given the opportunity to do so, would accurately communicate/reflect their preferences for public goods.

So did Buchanan save journalism?  Yes!  Very yes!  Like Samuelson and Tiebout, Buchanan recognized that the free-rider problem was a real problem.  So he appreciated the necessity of taxes.  However, unlike Samuelson and Tiebout, Buchanan had a problem with planners (editors) simply assuming people's preferences.  So his solution was for taxpayers (subscribers) to allocate their taxes (fees) to the public goods (articles) which most closely matched their preferences.

To be perfectly honest I wasn't quite sure if an editor was the closest equivalent to a government planner.  So I searched for "role of editors in newspapers" and found this...

The news editor is called upon to use his discretion, discrimination and imagination in reading the public mind and select the stories which have real news value and can be called important by his readers-quite a large number to be allotted a "splash" position on the main news pages according to the subject matter [or] field of activity they are concerned with. - Praveen Karthick, What is the Role of News Editor of a Newspaper?

Samuelson had quite a bit of faith in the ability of planners to accurately read the public's mind...

The Soviet economy is proof that, contrary to what many skeptics had earlier believed, a socialist command economy can function and even thrive. - Paul Samuelson

Buchanan really did not share Samuelson's faith.  With newspapers, the assumption of omniscience doesn't have horrible consequences because it's relatively easy for unsatisfied customers to "move" to a different newspaper.  Of course, the less newspapers there are... the more problematic the assumption of omniscience becomes.

But even if there is some optimal number of newspapers for consumers to choose from... why rely on omniscience?  Why not give subscribers the opportunity to use their fees to communicate their valuation of the articles?

Reading through the replies on Javis's story I found this one by Collin Ferry:

I’ve been envisioning automatic (but refundable) micropayments on a per-content basis as an alternative to paywalls and ad-blockers. It could be more lucrative than advertising, create a premium experience, reduce dependency on advertising and eliminate the widespread use of click-bait articles.  Do you have an opinion on micropayment solutions Jeff?

Jeff Jarvis replied:

Yes, and you’re not going to like my opinion. I do not see micopayments saving us any more than pay walls have. Same problems: we produce a commodity — information — rather than a unique product like entertainment. There’s no end of competition. The half-life of our value is the length of a click. There’ll always be someone to undercut your price, even if it’s micro.

Jarvis incorrectly assumes that it's micropayments OR paywalls.  However, Buchanan's solution was micropayments AND paywalls.  Subscribers would use their fees to communicate, via micropayments, their valuation of the articles.

Let's take Medium for example.  Right now Medium doesn't have micropayments OR paywalls.  Here's what it might look like if we added coin and dollar buttons below the stories...




If Jarvis valued my story, then he could click on the $0.50 button in order to clearly communicate his valuation of my content.  Fifty cents would be automatically withdrawn from his digital wallet and deposited into mine.  The total value of the story would also automatically increase by 50 cents.  When people searched for stories the default sorting would be by total value.  So it would be super quick and easy to find the most valuable stories.

It should be really intuitive that it's beneficial for society when it's easier, rather than harder, for people to give each other money.  Giving each other money is a very important form of communication.  So we can do some substitution and say that.... it should be really intuitive that it's beneficial for society when it's easier, rather than harder, for people to communicate with each other.  Well yeah.  Obviously.

Facilitating micropayments would solve the payment problem (eliminate payment costs)... but it wouldn't solve the free-rider problem.  Why should Jarvis "buy" my story when he can read it for free?  That being said, around $300 billion dollars are donated each year in the US.  So the free-rider problem doesn't mean that nobody will pay anything... it simply means that we can reasonably expect voluntary payments to be a lot less than people's true valuations...

allocations < valuations

With micropayments though... when valuing a story is as easy as "Liking" it.... then we can reasonably suspect that lots of people will be happy to chip in a few cents.  However, we can also reasonably expect that, because of the free-rider problem, their allocations will be less than their valuations...

allocations < valuations

In order to tackle the free-rider problem.... Medium could create a small paywall by charging people a very reasonable $1 dollar/month.  Each month subscribers would have 100 pennies to use in order to communicate their valuation of the stories.  They'd have absolutely no incentive to understate their valuations because doing so wouldn't decrease their fees.

Maybe it's just me but semantically it feels a bit awkward to think of these payments as voluntary.  So I think maybe we can instead say that these payments are "pragmatary".  Heh, that's pretty awkward as well but I think there are pretty important distinctions between...

1. voluntary payments (donations)
2. pragmatary payments (allocating your fees)
3. coerced payments (no choice where your payments go)

It would be very easy to ascertain whether $1 dollar/month was a truly reasonable subscription fee.  The earlier in the month that subscribers allocated all their pennies... the more reasonable the fee.  If most subscribers allocated all their pennies half-way through the month.... then perhaps the fee was too reasonable and it could be reasonably increased to $2 dollars.  But if, on the other hand, there were too many subscribers with unallocated pennies at the end of the month... then perhaps the $1 fee wasn't very reasonable.  However, this situation wouldn't last very long!

When subscribers use their fees to communicate their valuation of the content, they would be creating value signals...





Like Batman sees the bat signal and responds to it... talented writers would see and respond to the value signals created by the allocations of subscribers.  This would logically increase Medium's supply of valuable stories... which would logically lead to more subscribers... and brighter value signals.  It would be a virtuous cycle.  A larger pool of subscribers would be able to support a wider variety of niche topics.

Let's consider Netflix.  A while back I sat down and figured out how I might allocate one month’s worth of fees ($10 dollars)…





1. Amelie: $1.50
2. Black Mirror: $0.25
3. Castaway on the Moon: $0.25
4. Rake: $1.25
5. Shaolin Soccer: $0.50
6. Sidewalls: $0.25
7. Snatch: $0.25
8. Spaced: $1.00
9. The League: $0.75
10. The Man From Earth: $4.00


These were all movies and shows that I had given 5 stars to.  But the graph should make it painfully and obviously clear that I don't value all this content equally.   Maybe the star rating system is better than no communication between producers and consumers... but the value signals they create are very inaccurate.

For sure though it's a lot easier to rate content with unlimited stars than it is to valuate content with very limited fees.  It was really hard to figure out how to allocate my fees!  I truly and sincerely felt the opportunity costs.  But consumers considering the opportunity costs of their allocations is the only way to ensure the optimal brightness (accuracy) of value signals.  Accurate value signals are the only way to ensure that we don't waste society's limited creativity and talent on less valuable endeavors.

Ok, let's review...

1. Buchanan provided solution to media problem decades before it was even a problem
2. The media isn't aware of Buchanan's solution

Is it really fair though to blame the media's lack of awareness on the division of labor?  Well no.  The division of labor isn't the problem.  The problem is that experts in different fields can't clearly see each other's value signals.  In other words, the problem is a lack of accurate communication between experts in different fields.

Right now, with the current system, it's pretty easy to see which scholarly papers are the most popular... but we have no idea which papers are the most valuable.  How could we solve this problem?  We could easily solve this problem by applying Buchanan's solution to scholarly papers!  Subscribers would use their fees to clearly communicate which papers were most worthy of the public's attention.  Journalists would be able to easily see the brightest value signals in the different fields and use their wonderful words to help the public understand the importance and relevance of the most valuable papers.      

At this point maybe I should mention that I'm a little... unclear... about the division of credit for Buchanan's solution.  Clearly Buchanan didn't argue that we should apply his solution to Medium or Netflix.  But why didn't he argue that we should apply his solution to scholarly papers?  Unfortunately, he's no longer around for us to ask.  So I'll be happy to take a reasonable and fair amount of credit for, and ownership of, this immensely valuable intellectual property.  And accordingly, I'll expect a reasonable and fair amount of compensation for any implementation of this idea.  What's reasonable and fair?  Ideally that should be up to some group of subscribers to decide.  These subscribers should be able to decide how to divvy up their fees among all the different people responsible for breathing life into Buchanan's idea.  If Jarvis, for example, takes Buchanan's idea and runs with it farther and faster than I have been able to ... then it's only fair and reasonable that he should receive more fees than I would.  If subscribers decide that some technologist was largely responsible for bringing Buchanan's idea to life... then they should use their fees to communicate their valuation of his contribution.

So far I'm the only one trying to breath life into Buchanan's idea.  As far as I know, nobody else seems to appreciate how his idea solves the problem with government and media.  And it's entirely possible that there are some minor, or major, details that I'm missing!  But it's not like Jarvis, for example, is arguing that Buchanan's solution is the wrong solution because of... x, y and z.  Jarvis doesn't seem to realize that Buchanan's solution even exists!

It's sort of a catch-22 because it's not like I can allocate my fees to Buchanan's paper in order to help bring it more people's attention.

In conclusion maybe I should say something about the fact that all the economists that I've mentioned in this entry are dead.  So yeah... it's a ménage à trois with dead economists and live journalists and... me... the hummingbird.  Heh.  Well... we certainly have a lot to learn from dead economists but I probably should give a shout out to a few live economists...


  1. Alex Tabarrok - My favorite living economist but a bit economically incoherent.
  2. Peter Boettke - Loves Buchanan, hates the assumption of omniscience, but rarely, if ever, writes about the importance and relevance of earmarking.  It's a mystery.  
  3. John Quiggin - His implied rule of economics is really wonderful.  But he doesn't seem to know how we can avoid breaking it.  


Paul Romer also comes to mind... but I'm heartbroken that he didn't want to solve my pretty puzzle.

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Adam Gurri's Defense Of Liberty

Adam Gurri's reply to my comment on his blog entry... Evaluating the Creative Powers of a Free Civilization

Here’s the defense of liberty I believe in:

Freedom to make your own choices and your own mistakes is a central part of a good, human life. Work, tinkering, starting a business, trading—these are all part of what make up a good life as well, and what’s more, they’re a means by which we discover new goods and practices that can add to the good life.

Here’s how I read Hayek and Buchanan:

We should have freedom and property rights because they’ve had good consequences in the past. We should use our judgment to decide if specific activities are right or wrong because cultural evolution will work that out.

I think that’s bogus. For one thing, our judgments are *part* of how cultural evolution happens. For another, the fact that some practice has stuck around does not make it good. Child pornography and child prostitution have stuck around; that does not make them good, and gaining social acceptance wouldn’t make them good, either. - Adam Gurri

James Buchanan's "Order Defined in the Process of its Emergence" and Friedrich Hayek's "The Case For Freedom" both have one very important word in common... "omniscient"...

I wonder how much progress could be made in political economy if the best and the brightest among economists, such as Raj Chetty, would take seriously the admonition of Hayek, Buchanan, and Elinor Ostrom that the assumptions of omniscience and benevolence must be rejected if we are going to make progress and develop a robust theory of political economy. - Peter Boettke, AEA Richard T. Ely Lecture --- Raj Chetty, "Behavioral Economics and Public Policy"  

Might as well share a relevant paragraph from Ostrom...

PPB analysis rests upon much the same theoretical grounds as the traditional theory of public administration. The PPB analyst is essentially taking the methodological perspective of an "omniscient observer" or a "benevolent despot." Assuming that he knows the "will of the state," the PPB analyst selects a program for the efficient utilization of resources (i.e., men and material) in the accomplishment of those purposes. As Senator McClelland has correctly perceived, the assumption of omniscience may not hold; and, as a consequence, PPB analysis may involve radical errors and generate gross inefficiencies. - Vincent Ostrom and Elinor Ostrom, Public Choice: A Different Approach to the Study of Public Administration

Let's take another look at part of what you wrote...

Here’s how I read Hayek and Buchanan:

We should have freedom and property rights because they’ve had good consequences in the past. We should use our judgment to decide if specific activities are right or wrong because cultural evolution will work that out.

I think that’s bogus. For one thing, our judgments are *part* of how cultural evolution happens. For another, the fact that some practice has stuck around does not make it good. Child pornography and child prostitution have stuck around; that does not make them good, and gaining social acceptance wouldn’t make them good, either. - Adam Gurri

The assumption of omniscience means that government planners already know our judgements.  But if you agree with Hayek, Buchanan, and Ostrom... then you'll agree that the assumption of omniscience is the epitome of bogus.  And if you agree that the assumption of omniscience is the epitome of bogus... then you'll understand that our judgements are unknown.  If you understand that our judgements are unknown... then you'll understand that the outcomes of cultural evolution really do not reflect our judgements.

Of course our judgements aren't entirely unknown.  We don't live in a command economy... we live in a mixed economy.  This means that our judgements of private goods are known and our judgements of public goods are largely unknown.  As a result, knowledge of judgements is lopsided.  Because knowledge of judgements is lopsided... cultural evolution is lopsided as well.  We make far more progress with private goods than we make with public goods.

Progress is a function of difference...





Individuals differ, one from another, in important and meaningful respects. They differ in physical strength, in courage, in imagination, in artistic skills and appreciation, in basic intelligence, in preferences,  in attitudes toward others, in personal life-styles, in ability to deal socially with others, in Weltanschauung, in power to control others, and in command over nonhuman resources. No one can deny the elementary validity of this statement, which is of course amply supported by empirical evidence. We live in a society of individuals, not a society of equals. We can make little or no progress in analyzing the former as if it were the latter. - James Buchanan, The Limits of Liberty

All this difference is the source of progress.  Progress is a function of difference.  So anything that hinders or limits or diminishes difference will hinder progress.

For a while now it's been pretty popular to promote diversity.  Unfortunately, it's merely lip service.  It's an extremely superficial appreciation of diversity.  A substantial and deep appreciation of diversity fundamentally respects and recognizes the value of people's freedom to choose different paths.  Diversity allows humanity to hedge its bets.  And hedging bets is just as important for public goods as it is for private goods.

We can hedge our bets with public goods simply by creating a market in the public sector.  Taxpayers would be given the option/opportunity to directly allocate their taxes.  Because humans are diverse, the demand for public goods would reflect this diversity.  And, in a relatively short amount of time, the diversity of public goods would come to reflect the diversity of the demand for public goods.   Our judgements of public goods would be known just like our judgements of private goods are known.   Knowledge of judgements would no longer be lopsided.  Cultural evolution would no longer be lopsided.  We would make just as much progress with public goods as we make with private goods.

To be sure... it's a given that my pragmatarian bias has influenced my reading of Hayek, Buchanan and Ostrom.  That being said, Boettke isn't a pragmatarian and he clearly has the same interpretation regarding their position on the assumption of omniscience.  Hayek wasn't a pragmatarian either.  I'm going to say that Buchanan and Ostrom were pretty much pragmatarians.  Or, early pragmatarians... proto-pragmatarians.

Because most public goods and services are financed through a process of taxation involving no choice, optimal levels of expenditure are difficult to establish. The provision of public goods can be easily over-financed or under-financed. Public officials and professionals may have higher preferences for some public goods than the citizens they serve. Thus they may allocate more tax monies to these services than the citizens being served would allocate if they had an effective voice in the process. Under-financing can occur where many of the beneficiaries of a public good are not included in the collective consumption units financing the good. Thus they do not help to finance the provision of that good even though they would be willing to help pay their fair share. - Vincent Ostrom and Elinor Ostrom, Public Goods and Public Choices

Under most real-world taxing institutions, the tax price per unit at which collective goods are made available to the individual will depend, at least to some degree, on his own behavior. This element is not, however, important under the major tax institutions such as the personal income tax, the general sales tax, or the real property tax. With such structures, the individual may, by changing his private behavior, modify the tax base (and thus the tax price per unit of collective goods he utilizes), but he need not have any incentive to conceal his "true" preferences for public goods. - James M. Buchanan, The Economics of Earmarked Taxes

In any case, I'm fairly confident that if you read Hayek, Buchanan and Ostrom correctly, you'll be able to effectively view cultural evolution through the lens of society's judgements of public goods being assumed, rather than actually known.  And if you really appreciate the relationship between difference/diversity and discovery/progress... then you should really appreciate the importance of actually knowing, rather than simply assuming, society's judgements of public goods.