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Showing posts with label education. Show all posts
Showing posts with label education. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Market-Avoiding Activity

Living in the dark ages really sucks.  So it's really wonderful that this paper by Peter Salib (Vox overview-interview) shines a brilliant light on the prison system.  He makes the painfully obvious, but exceedingly overlooked, argument that preventing prisoners from helping society is the same thing as harming society.  Prisoners should be put to their most socially valuable uses.  But since prisons can only provide a very small fraction of all the possible employment opportunities, prisoners can only be put to their most socially valuable uses outside of prison.

1. Prisoners should be put to their most valuable uses
2. Prisons have extremely limited employment opportunities
3. Prisons should be abolished

The trick is appreciating that his prescription doesn't really maximize his premise.  In order for prisoners to truly be put to their most socially valuable uses, they must have the most suitable, appropriate, personalized and customized training, skills and knowledge.  But what are the chances that any given prisoner already has the optimal education?

Schools, like prisons, are not markets.  The point of markets is to optimally (efficiently) allocate resources… including people.   Markets accomplish this task through the use of value signals… prices/wages/revenue/profits.  Participants in markets spend their money in order to help guide people and other resources to their most socially valuable uses.

From Salib's paper...

Both criminal and tort law are designed to regulate bad acts. Specifically, according to economic thinking, they are designed to regulate behavior that would otherwise cause net social losses. We can tell that bad acts cause such losses because such behaviors almost always circumvent perfectly functional markets.   Bad actors—burglars, fraudsters, murderers, and the like—take via pure coercion what they could have otherwise bargained for.  Markets with low transaction costs are, “virtually by definition, the most efficient method of allocating resources,” because they allow parties to freely decline wealth-reducing transactions.  Thus, the economic argument goes, both criminal and tort law seek to efficiently minimize such market-avoiding acts. - Peter N. Salib, Why Prison?: An Economic Critique 

In order to maximize socially beneficial behavior.... we first have to actually know how beneficial any given behavior is to society!  Having to explain this is proof that we're living in the dark ages.

Nearly all the activity that occurs in schools qualifies as market-avoiding.  Students do an incredible amount of work, but virtually none of it is graded/judged by the market.  As a result, students are almost entirely ignorant of the true social benefit of their behavior.

Today I read this article...

But, while households cannot spend their way out of a recession, their government can do that spending for them. It can increase its spending, providing the amount needed for a revival of the economy. And, insofar as the government represents the populace, and is entrusted with its interests - as is supposed to be the case in a democracy - it must increase its expenditure. The welfare of the public requires it. - Nina Shapiro, The Hidden Cost of Privatization 

Let's consult Bastiat...

This means that the terraces of the Champ-de-Mars are ordered first to be built up and then to be torn down. The great Napoleon, it is said, thought he was doing philanthropic work when he had ditches dug and then filled in. He also said: "What difference does the result make? All we need is to see wealth spread among the laboring classes. - Frédéric Bastiat, What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen 

Let's jump back to Shapiro...

Discussions of the advantages of education usually focus on its economic benefits, to both the educated and the nation. These economic benefits, however, were not so significant in Smith’s times, as the jobs available to the “common people” were menial, requiring little skill or understanding, and indeed, it was because they were that their education was paramount. It counteracted the “dulling” of the mind that occurred in the performance of their simple, uninterrupted and repetitive tasks, and was needed not for the advancement of their fortunes, but for the development of their minds. They had to have some minimal understanding of the world, and ability to learn about it, to act intelligently within it, and respect the others in it. A “civil” society required an educated public. -  Nina Shapiro, The Hidden Cost of Privatization

In order for students to act intelligently within the world, the world needs the opportunity to directly and monetarily judge the intelligence of students' activities.  Students should put all their work online and everybody should have the opportunity to use their own money to grade the intelligence/relevance/value of the work.

Here's a glimpse of a far more enlightened world... Classtopia.  On this page you can see their entries sorted by their social relevance.

Our current education system fails everybody.  Well duh.  Schools aren't markets.  Everybody's education is suboptimal so we can guarantee that nobody is being put to their most valuable uses.  We are all victims of the education system.  This is more obvious for some people... such as criminals.  Abolishing prisons would certainly put prisoners to more valuable uses, but it wouldn't come even remotely close to putting them to their most valuable uses.

Rather than abolishing prisons, they should be transformed into school-markets.  "School-markets"?   That really can't be the best term.  Coming up with the best term is a problem.  It's a problem that can be solved by school-markets.  Students would offer solutions and donors would use their money to grade the solutions.

Digging/filling random holes is certainly a solution to some problem.  But who in their right mind would reach into their own pocket to pay for this solution?  Would Nina Shapiro?  Would John Quiggin?

We live in the dark ages because so many people erroneously believe that society's limited resources can be adequately allocated even in the absence of everybody's opportunity to use their own money to grade the relevance/value of an allocation.

I highly value Salib's paper because it helps to illuminate these dark ages.  But it's not like I've spent any money on it.  Maybe it's because I'm a free-rider, or maybe it's because SSRN isn't a market.

Here are the statistics that SSRN provides on Salib's paper...

Abstract views: 9,555
Downloads: 2,821
Rank: 3,114

What if the rank of his paper was determined entirely by the amount of money that was donated to it?  The more money that was donated to it, the higher its rank.  The higher its rank, the more reason people would have to read it.

I wouldn't be spending my money on his paper so that I could read it.  I would be spending my money on his paper to encourage more people to read it.

Should papers be ranked by downloads or donations?  Having to ask this question is more proof that we're living in the dark ages.

If prisons were transformed into school-markets, then prisoners would put all their work online and everybody would have the opportunity to use their donations to rank the work.  Every prison would be a talent contest.  Everyone would be a talent scout.  Given enough eyeballs, all talent is conspicuous.  Talent that had been overlooked/unappreciated by parents and teachers would be spotted and cultivated by donors.

Youtube proves that people's tastes and appetites are endlessly diverse.  Unfortunately, since videos are ranked by views and thumbs up, rather than by donations, Youtube also proves that we're living in the dark ages.

Every prisoner has a multitude of natural/innate talents.  Prison should facilitate the discovery of talents.  Then it's a matter of markets informing prisoners of the social value of their different talents.  Donors would highlight and positively reinforce the most socially beneficial behavior.

Of course, once schools become school-markets, the number of criminals will plummet.  When the Invisible Hand guides students to their personally and socially optimal occupations, crime will almost entirely be a thing of these dark ages.  When every place/space is a market, it will be virtually impossible for any activity to avoid it.

Monday, May 8, 2017

The Pragmatarian Model For The LA Times

Today I submitted the following idea to the LA Times...

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My friend has helped her 4th grade class to become a country...

http://classtopia.blogspot.com/

Recently a page was created to highlight their best blog entries...

http://classtopia.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_22.html

The value of the entries is determined by civic crowdfunding.  Right now the crowd is pretty small.  It consists of the students, their teacher and myself.  But in theory the crowd could be as large as everyone in the world.  Everyone could use their donated dollars to help "grade" the students' work.   If the students are going to do a lot of work anyways, then they might as well do the most relevant work.  Can you imagine if all the students in the world used their time, energy, creativity and brainpower to solve the most relevant problems?

This idea is just as relevant to newspapers.  Actually knowing the relevance/value of your stories would allow you to far better serve your readers.

Does this idea seem far-fetched?  It shouldn’t.  Grocery stores allow consumers to substantially and specifically participate in the prioritization process.   You have the wonderful and incredibly important opportunity to use your dollars to "grade" the relevance/value of the products that are available at your local grocery store.  

This last Friday the Helpful Honda folks gave a really high "grade" to Classtopia by donating 24 chromebooks.  Fox 11 was there to cover the event...

https://youtu.be/q5cPSsIvHRE

It was a pretty great overview.  But the idea definitely merits wider coverage and deeper analysis.  Either grocery stores are doing it wrong... or newspapers and schools are doing it wrong.  Which is it?  It would behoove us to figure out the correct answer sooner rather than later.

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See also: 

Sunday, December 11, 2016

Building Better Classrooms And Countries

Forum reply: 4th Grade Nation State

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You know I actually did something like this (in the loosest sense of the term) in sixth grade when I was 11. My teacher would give us fake money when we did things like help out other students, assist the classroom chores, and of course do well on money assignments (extra credit that we got paid for instead of points for). Afterwards we could spend the money in the store of knickknacks etc. There were other lessons associated with it such as checkbook balancing and loan management, but that wasn't the main goal. The goal was to demonstrate to the students how a simple market works, a person's place in it, and how to manage your money.

Did we create an independent economy between students? No, but that was never was the goal. Did we waste our parents money or try to cheat the system? No, there was no point in doing that. But what we did do was create a simple market where the classroom employed and paid students for doing jobs for the classroom and the students purchased things from the classroom. Would you consider that "building" something? - Lost heros 

What your teacher did was better than nothing. But would I consider it "building" something? Not so much.

Why do you perceive that the citizens of Classtopia are wasting their parents' money? You said that the students in your class purchased things "from" their classroom. But in Classtopia... the students are purchasing things "for" their classroom. Well... so far only labor has been purchased... but when the Garden Dept, for example, buys a plant... then it's going to be "for" their classroom... and/or the school. It's the difference between private goods and public goods.

Yesterday Michelle came over and picked up my collection of unused postcards and foreign currency. This week each of her 30 students will receive 22 foreign coins, around 4 foreign bills and around a dozen postcards. I put the items in 60 zip lock bags.

Of course the students are going to be given the opportunity to trade with each other. Not just trade though... but also buy, sell and share.

From my perspective, a market is obviously beneficial because the students aren't going to equally value their Christmas gifts. Some students might prefer the postcards while others might prefer the currency. Maybe most students will prefer the currency?

Michelle is going to ask the students what they can trade their gifts for. I'm hoping that one of the students will respond with "quotes". Then hopefully... while they are trading quotes for currency/postcards... they'll realize that they can trade copies of their quotes with each other.

When Michelle and I talked yesterday she guessed that perhaps the issue is that the kids have been indoctrinated against trading. Kids are known for making really bad trades... so their parents and teachers admonish them against making any trades. Sure, lots of kids don't know the real-world value of most things. When the kids are trading/buying/selling the postcards and coins... they aren't going to know their real-world value. Well... to be clear... I don't really know their real-world value. Except for the French Francs and the 100 yuan bills. Michelle told me that the Francs are obsolete but I wanted to know whether the metal itself had any value. I kinda gave up after a few searches. As far as the 100 yuan bill... I believe it's worth around $14 dollars. There were at least a couple of them in the collection.

Anybody who exchanges a 100 yuan bill for a Franc will probably be making a mistake. And I say "probably" because I can't know how much the student might value the coin itself.

Over Christmas break the students with the currency will have the project of using Google Sheets to inventory their collection. One of the columns will be for the currency's dollar value. So the students will need to do some research.

Generally it's a good idea to figure out something's market value before you decide to trade it. But I'm pretty sure that it's a good idea to allow the kids to make some bad trades in order to learn from their relatively small mistakes.

Building a better classroom means that you're making improvements that can benefit the next batch of students. If this year's Garden Dept buys a Tillandsia ionantha and attaches it to a tree in the school... then it can benefit the next batch of kids. Same thing if the Book Dept buys A Wrinkle in Time and adds it to the classroom library.

Sure... improvements can be made just by the students contributing their time... but that's certainly not how most countries work. Most countries have taxes. Of course, there aren't any countries that allow their citizens to choose where their taxes go. Nearly everybody takes our current system for granted. But I certainly do not. I've thoroughly researched our system and have found absolutely no logical/rational (ie economic) explanation for allowing a small group of people to spend everybody's taxes.

So... Classtopia. You have 30 citizens each using their pennies to say, "I've found some room for improvement and my penny is proof that the improvement should be made".

Can America learn anything from Classtopia? Imagine citizens using their dollars to say, "I've found some room for improvement and my tax dollar is proof that the improvement should be made".

Well...

A. Americans don't truly know where there's room for improvement

Or...

B. Voting is an adequate method for Americans to communicate where improvement is most needed

I'm pretty sure that neither of those is the right answer. Ideally, sooner rather than later, some of you will apply America's current system to some classrooms. The 30 students will elect one student who gets to decide how all their tax pennies are spent. And then we'll see! We'll see which system is better at improving classrooms. We'll see which system is better at building more beneficial classrooms.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Classtopia Tax Choice

Reply to thread: 4th Grade Nation State

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This last Monday the students in Michelle's class (Classtopians) paid their taxes for the first time...




The amounts are in pennies!

Of course the taxpayers were able to choose where their taxes went.  The taxpayers gave their taxes directly to the students in charge of the departments.  When the taxpayers paid their taxes, they were given a receipt.

The point of the IRS isn't to collect taxes... it's to try and minimize cheating.

All the taxes were generated from the auction of the quotes.  So perhaps they aren't technically taxes?  *shrug*


[Updates]

17 Nov 2016




29 Nov 2016






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Thursday, September 22, 2016

Bryan Caplan VS Friedrich Hayek











Smart assumption: I unequally value creators
Stupid assumption: I equally value a creator's creations

Smart assumption: I unequally value economists
Stupid assumption: I equally value Bryan Caplan's blog entries

Here's one of Caplan's recent entries...   Value-Added and Social Desirability Bias...

What's up?  I once again point my accusatory finger at Social Desirability Bias.  Rewarding good teachers sounds a lot nicer than firing bad teachers.  So when research comes along that potentially recommends both, pundits and politicians don't coolly crunch the numbers.  They leap to the recommendation that's pleasing to the ear.  So what if the original researchers find that firing bad teachers wins with flying colors?  Move along folks, nothing to see here...

Assumption 1: parents equally value schools
Assumption 2: parents equally value teachers

Are these assumptions smart or stupid?  Of course they are stupid.  They are fundamentally stupid.  Yet, does Caplan challenge these fundamentally stupid assumptions?  Clearly he doesn't challenge the second assumption.  Instead, he encourages/enables/empowers it.  He argues that administrators can fire the bad teachers despite the fact that the admins don't actually know how much value the teachers create.  Possible assumptions...

Assumption 1: admins are omniscient, they do know how much value teachers create
Assumption 2: how much value teachers create is a "minor" detail

In my opinion... both these assumptions are stupid.  Are they equally stupid though?

It's actually pretty easy to visualize the basic economics of education.  Here's how the current system looks...





Any given school consists of consumers (ie parents), producers (ie teachers) and an intermediary (ie a principal).  The consumers give their money to the intermediary who gives more or less the same amount of money to each of the producers.

The problem with this system is that teachers are not equally valuable.  Anybody who has ever been taught should thoroughly and completely understand that teachers are not equally valuable.  Just like artists are not equally valuable.  Just like economists are not equally valuable.  As you can see in the diagram, teachers don't all produce the same amount of value.  They aren't all Jaime Escalante.  Except, we obviously don't know how much value he truly created.

The solution is to unbundle teachers...




Parents would be entirely free to decide which teachers they give their money to.  The most valuable teachers would get the most money and the least valuable teachers would get the least money.

We can imagine that this is pretty much how Patreon works.  There's no intermediary to decide how supporters' money is distributed among the creators.  Supporters are entirely free to decide for themselves how much support they give to the creators.  The more money a creator receives... the more value they create.  Supporters are free to use their cash to communicate their perception of a creator's relative scarcity.  

Is this how schools should work?  Or is it more beneficial to bundle teachers together?   Is it beneficial to protect teachers from the valuations of parents?  Is it beneficial to protect teachers from the Invisible Hand?  Would it also be beneficial to bundle schools together in order to protect them from the Invisible Hand?

Would Caplan argue that we should bundle Khan Academy and Marginal University together?







Does Caplan want to argue that he values both these lessons equally?  Does he want to argue that he's just as valuable as Hayek?

The main lesson which the true liberal must learn from the success of the socialists is that it was their courage to be Utopian which gained them the support of the intellectuals and therefore an influence on public opinion which is daily making possible what only recently seemed utterly remote. Those who have concerned themselves exclusively with what seemed practicable in the existing state of opinion have constantly found that even this had rapidly become politically impossible as the result of changes in a public opinion which they have done nothing to guide. Unless we can make the philosophic foundations of a free society once more a living intellectual issue, and its implementation a task which challenges the ingenuity and imagination of our liveliest minds. But if we can regain that belief in the power of ideas which was the mark of liberalism at its best, the battle is not lost. The intellectual revival of liberalism is already underway in many parts of the world. Will it be in time? - Friedrich Hayek, The Intellectuals and Socialism

For example...

Even at the cost of lining up with Friedman, I’d be pleased if the idea that war is a mostly futile waste of lives and money became conventional wisdom. Switching to utopian mode, wouldn’t it be amazing if the urge to “do something” could be channeled into, say, ending hunger in the world or universal literacy (both cheaper than even one Iraq-sized war)? - John Quiggin, War and waste

Yet...

Then I realized that they want a kind of unicorn, a State that has the properties, motivations, knowledge, and abilities that they can imagine for it. When I finally realized that we were talking past each other, I felt kind of dumb. Because essentially this very realization—that people who favor expansion of government imagine a State different from the one possible in the physical world—has been a core part of the argument made by classical liberals for at least 300 years. - Michael Munger, Unicorn Governance

Switching to utopian mode, wouldn't it be amazing if parents could give their money to any teachers in the world?

Switching to dystopian mode, wouldn't it be terrible if readers around the world couldn't give their money to J. K. Rowling?

We know that Rowling is a superstar.  But we only know that she's a superstar because lots of people around the world were completely free and more than happy to spend their money on her books.

What do we know about teachers?  We know that they are not equally valuable.  And we also know that there's at least a gazillion of them.  Therefore, according to the law of truly large numbers, it's a given that at least one of those teachers should be an algebra superstar.  It's a given that at least one of those teachers should be a geography superstar.  It's a given that each and every significant subject should have at least one superstar teacher.  There should be just as many superstar teachers as there are superstar authors.  Just in case it's not abundantly clear... by "superstar" teachers I mean that they would be as filthy rich as superstar authors.

The manufacturers first supply the neighbourhood, and afterwards, as their work improves and refines, more distant markets. - Adam Smith
When the buyer goes to the market, he wants to find it abundantly supplied. He wants the seasons to be propitious for all the crops; more and more wonderful inventions to bring a greater number of products and satisfactions within his reach; time and labor to be saved; distances to be wiped out; - Frédéric Bastiat 

We've made pretty decent progress at wiping out distances but it's not like any of the teachers who've put their classes online are getting filthy rich.

A while back I e-mailed Alex Tabarrok and suggested that Marginal University create a video about the free-rider problem.  I also suggested that they try and determine the multitude's WTP for potential topics.  I'd certainly be happy to pay $5 in order to try and move the free-rider problem higher up on their list of potential topics.  Wouldn't it be so cool to see a list of their potential topics sorted by the multitude's WTP for them?

In my tweet to Art Carden and Michael Munger I said that the Invisible Hand weeds but rarely plants.  If the Invisible Hand does not do most of the planting then it logically means that the Visible Hand does most of the planting.  Voila!  Here I am!  Planting this blog entry.  My decision to do so wasn't based on the multitude's WTP for this topic...  it was based entirely on my own WTP for this topic.  But it's not like I ignored or disregarded the multitude's WTP for this topic... I don't even vaguely or remotely know what the multitude's WTP for this topic actually is.

After I publish this entry... will it be easy to discern the Invisible Hand's verdict of my product?    Nope.  Thanks to the free-rider problem... ignorance is bliss.  Really?  Ignorance of the Invisible Hand's verdict is bliss?

I'm guessing that Caplan is correct that there's a social desirability bias.  But as far as a bias against markets is concerned... it seems like a really good idea to consider the notable exceptions.  We really don't hear people complain about...

1. artists being supported on Patreon
2. J.K. Rowling being a superstar

Same thing with this guy...

I'm a millionaire, I'm a multi-millionaire. I'm filthy rich. You know why I'm a multi-millionaire? 'Cause multi-millions like what I do. That's pretty good, isn't it? - Michael Moore

How many liberals complain that he's a superstar?

Ok... so... despite the fact that I've done a terrible job of presenting/sharing/organizing the evidence... it should be more than adequate to point us in the right direction.

We'll use all this evidence to think big but start small.  We'll create a website!  At first the website will consist entirely of videos created by Marginal University and videos created by Khan Academy.  Members of this website will each have to pay $1/month... but they'll be free to choose which videos they allocate their pennies to.   Knowing the relative value of the videos would allow...

1. the most valuable videos to be featured on the homepage
2. members to sort the videos by their value

It would actually be the Invisible Hand that would decide which videos were valuable enough to put on the homepage.  And it would actually be the Invisible Hand that would sort the videos by their value.  How cool would that be?

Of course we could also allocate our pennies to potential topics.  This would allow the Invisible Hand to guide the planting.  Which would mean less weeds.

The website would cover its costs and pass the rest of the money onto Marginal University and Khan Academy.

If this utopian model turned out to be possible and practicable in the physical world... then we would gradually add more and more educators and their products.  Bryan Caplan, John Quiggin, Art Carden, Michael Munger and others could add their educational products (blog entries, articles, papers, etc) and we'd be free to allocate our pennies to them.

As the supply of valuable products increased... more people would join the website.  And as more people became members... the most valuable products would get more money.  This would encourage more educators to join the website.  As the supply of valuable products increased... so too would people's WTP and the monthly fee.  It would be a virtuous circle of incentives and education.  It would be an accurate and amazing feedback loop.  

Hmmm... anybody want to argue that the website wouldn't need a monthly fee?  It would just need to give members the ability to...

1. put money into their digital wallets
2. spend their money on their favorite educational products

That wouldn't be a bad argument.  Right now it's not the easiest thing in the world to allocate a quarter to Marginal University's video about prices.  In other words, there's a barrier to payment.  There's an obstacle to spending.  Would eliminating this obstacle facilitate the Invisible Hand?  Of course it would!  If giving the video a quarter was as easy as giving it a "thumbs up"... then I'd sure be happy to do so.  I'd be surprised if I was the only person in this boat.  How cool would it be to see a list of all the people who were willing to allocate some money to the video?

Eliminating the obstacle to spending would eliminate the forced-free-rider problem.  And it's entirely possible that the forced-free-rider problem is a lot larger than anybody realized.  Which means that it's entirely possible that eliminating the barrier to payment would allow the Invisible Hand to turn the most valuable educators into superstars.

In any case, there's more than one way to skin a cat.  We can apply the Invisible Hand to formal education... or we can apply the Invisible Hand to informal education.  I think that applying the Invisible Hand to formal education would be a Herculean task.  It would be far less Herculean to apply the Invisible Hand to informal education.  Even though it would be a lot easier to apply the Invisible Hand to informal education... the potential benefits would be massive.  People would be able to easily see, understand and really appreciate the Invisible Hand.  What happens when everybody really appreciates the Invisible Hand?  Utopia.  Heaven on Earth.

Saturday, August 8, 2015

Do markets put resources into the best hands?

Reply to replies: "senseless human greed"

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You're system is far worse than the current because at least a poor person's vote is equal to a rich person's and thus there's at least constant pressure to meet the demands of the majority of people who need the most protection and help for the common good. - Lynx_Fox
You seem to think that people only spend their money in ways that will give them the maximum benefit for it, when if anything the vast majority of the population has shown time and time again that they will gladly blow money on stupid shit that has no potential benefit for their lives. - Falconer360
In a representative democracy, we elect governmental representatives to make good decisions for the welfare of all citizens - not popular decisions, or decisions that best profit GM or Monsanto. - billvon
That's right. And those other things will often be mythology, superstitions, not-in-my-backyard syndrome, short-sightedness, incredulity, unsupported gullible "factoids" or other things rather than empirically-based scientific views with a whole view to the common good that should decide allocation by representatives. - Lynx_Fox

Let's try and use all of this to construct an individual for us to consider and study...

Chris gladly blows his money on stupid shit. He inherited $50,000 dollars from his rich uncle. Rather than spend it on college... he spent it on a corvette. When his grandfather died... he inherited $20,000. Rather than using this money to start a business... he donated all of it to Joel Osteen. Chris loves Christ almost as much as he loves cars. Except he never reads the Bible... or perhaps he missed the story about the prodigal (wasteful) son. Just like he missed the story about the talents. Just like he missed the story about the protestant work ethic.

It stands to reason that Chris's value judgements are extremely impaired. There's one very important exception to this rule... democracy! Even though Chris consistently spends his money on the wrong things... he consistently spends his votes on the right representatives. He doesn't choose representatives that are just as wasteful as he is. Neither does he choose representatives who promise to take money from the rich and give it to him. Instead, he chooses representatives who will steer the country in the most valuable directions.

Chris is the modern day equivalent of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. In the private sector... he's Mr. Hyde. He makes horrible decisions. But in the public sector... he's Dr. Jekyll... his value judgements are impeccable!

This story is so far from credible that it's kinda funny. It would make for an entertainingly absurd movie.

Markets work because stupid decisions (aka mistakes) decrease your influence (over how society's limited resources are used). Because a decision can't be that stupid if it increases your influence/power/control (in the long run).

Is the decision to rob a bank a stupid decision? Most reasonable people would argue that it is. Chances are good that you'll be caught or killed. Ending up in jail or dead really decreases your influence. But what if somebody robs a bank and gets away with it? Then clearly their decision wasn't that stupid.

Is the decision to drop out of school a stupid decision? Most reasonable people would argue that it is. Dropping out of school will decrease your chances of getting a good job. There's plenty of evidence that education level and income are positively correlated. But what if somebody drops out of school and starts an extremely successful business? Then clearly their decision to drop out of school wasn't that stupid.

If the intelligence of decisions is not strongly correlated with income/influence... then why bother endeavoring to make intelligent decisions? Why not randomly decide whether you go to, or stay in, school? Why not randomly decide whether you use condoms? Why not randomly decide whether you use drugs? Why bother seriously considering and contemplating the consequences of your actions?

You guys really need to get your stories straight. If markets don't truly reward alertness, effort, productivity, responsibility, competence, diligence, research, resourcefulness, ingenuity, hindsight, insight and foresight.... then yeah, there's no point in giving taxpayers the freedom to choose where their taxes go. But if markets truly fail to put society's limited resources into the best hands... then there's really no point in giving anybody the freedom to choose anything. If this is how you truly perceive reality... then prove it by starting a thread where you share your version of reality with others.

Friday, April 3, 2015

Visualizing The Economics of Education

Our education system sucks.  In order to understand why... it helps to look at education from the perspective of economics.  Unfortunately, because our education system sucks... we should probably first take a quick look at some basic economics...




In this drawing I'm buying the book Toleration from the author... Andrew Cohen.  In reality I didn't buy it from Cohen in person... I bought his book on Amazon.  Amazon made it stupid easy for Cohen and I to trade with each other.

Most people tend to think of payment as compensation.  But in reality, it's actually a form of communication.  Money is one way that we communicate with each other.  It's an extremely effective means of communication because actions speak louder than words.  When we give somebody a dollar, we're giving them a unit of volume.  This is why in the drawing there's a megaphone near the dollars that I'm giving to Cohen.

So Amazon isn't just facilitating trades... it's facilitating communication.  The more people who buy Cohen's book... the larger his megaphone...




This drawing should give you an idea why J.K. Rowling's megaphone is larger than Cohen's megaphone.  Because Rowling's megaphone is larger, she has more power/control/influence over society's limited resources.

Now let's take a look at the economics of education...




Any given elementary/middle/high school consists of parents (consumers), producers (teachers) and an intermediary (principal).  Because parents don't all pay the same amount of taxes... they don't all give the same amount of money to the school.  The school, however, gives more or less the same amount of money to each of its teachers.  This means that every teacher has the same size megaphone.

The problem with this system is that not all teachers are equally effective.  As you can see in the diagram, they don't all produce the same amount of value for parents.  They aren't all Jaime Escalante.

The solution is to unbundle teachers...




This diagram isn't as pretty but you should get the idea that more dollars/volume would be given to the teachers who produce more value.  The best teachers would have significantly larger megaphones than the worst teachers.

Can you guess which system a terrible teacher would prefer?  The many-one-many system?  Or the many-many system?  Would terrible teachers prefer it if teachers were "sold" in a bundle or "sold" individually?

These diagrams also clearly show us why school vouchers really aren't that effective.  

With the many-one-many system a school is one product within a market.  But with the many-many system a school becomes a market with many products.  Each school would become a market within a market.  Schools would facilitate trades between consumers (parents) and teachers (producers).  This means that schools would facilitate communication between parents and teachers.

We can also think of a many-one-many system as monolithic and a many-many system as modular.  The benefit of a modular system is that you don't have to throw the baby out with the bath water.  For example, if your computer monitor breaks then you simply replace your monitor.  You're not forced to replace all the other fully functional components.  You just replace an inferior (broken) component with a superior component.  So not only do modular systems minimize waste, but they also facilitate marginal improvements.  Modular systems are a precise instrument while monolithic systems are a blunt instrument.

Let's get back to J.K. Rowling.  It should be pretty straightforward that her megaphone wouldn't be as large as it is if she could only trade with people in the UK.  Would it make sense to limit literary exchanges by geography?  Nope.  So we really wouldn't want to limit educational exchanges by geography either.  Parents in America should be able to trade with teachers in the UK.  This probably doesn't mean that they'd send their kids to the UK.  It just means that exceptional UK teachers would have megaphones that were large enough for their voices/lessons to reach students around the world.  Which is easy enough to accomplish with live or recorded videos.

With a monolithic education system... if a parent isn't happy with one or more of the teachers... then they have two options...

1. they can voice their concerns
2. they can foot vote for a different school

These two options would still be available in a modular education system.  However, a third option would also be available...

1. they can voice their concerns
2. they can foot vote for a different school
3. they can dollar vote for different teachers

Moving your child to a different school should always be an option.  But foot voting is a very blunt instrument.  It requires that you throw the baby out with the bath water.  When you "exit" the old school you discard both the good and bad teachers.  When you "enter" a new school you gain both good and bad teachers.  Dollar voting, on the other hand, is a very precise instrument.  The amount of dollars that you give to teachers accurately communicates your assessment of their effectiveness.  So not only is it much easier to move your dollars than it is to move your feet... but dollar voting allows you to communicate more clearly.  Society works better with clearer communication.

Does it matter if some parents would have far more dollar votes to spend than other parents?  Well, if it doesn't make sense for teachers to all have the same sized megaphones... then why would it make sense for parents to all have the same sized megaphones?

It's important to understand that a wealthy parent being able to give more dollar votes to a teacher really wouldn't mean that only their child would have access to the teacher's product.  This is because these dollar votes aren't private dollars... they are public dollars.  A wealthy parent would be voting with their tax dollars.   Clearly it wouldn't be permitted for wealthy parents to spend their tax dollars on private tutors for their children.  Wealthy parents would only have the option to spend their tax dollars on teachers who freely share their lessons.

For example... here's a Youtube video on opportunity cost...





Everybody can watch and learn from this video.  Nobody is excluded.  This means that, in a modular education system, parents would have the option to use their taxes to dollar vote for Khan Academy.  Parents could help make Khan Academy's megaphone larger.

Of course Khan Academy now has numerous teachers.  Would they be unbundled with a modular system?  That would be up to Khan Academy.  Just like it would be up to private schools whether they unbundled their teachers.

If you're a truly exceptional teacher... where are you going to want to work?  At a private school where the size of your megaphone doesn't accurately reflect your talent?  Or at a public school where parents all over the world can dollar vote for you?  It's not going to be a difficult choice.  So it's pretty much guaranteed that private schools will unbundle their teachers.  This means that parents who send their kids to private schools will be able to dollar vote for education using both their private and public dollars.  Actually, it really means that all schools will be public schools.

With the current monolithic education system... pay doesn't accurately reflect society's valuation...




How can students make informed career decisions when the information that we provide them with is fundamentally wrong?

We can greatly improve education by facilitating trading/communication between teachers and parents.  Let's make it stupid easy for parents to give the best teachers, wherever they are, the largest megaphones.

See also...

iPads < Teachers
Thumbs Up vs Quarters Up

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Debugging Education Economics - Robert Reich, Robert Murphy and Donald Boudreaux

Robert Reich recently posted the following to Facebook...

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A wealthy businessman told me recently that American teachers were paid too much. I said the truth was the opposite. They’re paid far too little. I asked him: “Which is more important, the nation’s financial capital or our human capital?” He said it was our human capital. Then I asked him: “what’s the average pay for those who guide and develop our financial capital, investment bankers and portfolio managers?” He guessed $1,200,000 a year, which isn’t far off. I then asked: “What’s the average pay of those who guide and develop our human capital, America’s teachers?” He guessed $120,000 per year. I told him that, in fact, high school teachers earn an average of $56,260; elementary school teachers, $56,320; and middle school teachers, $56,630.

In other words, investment bankers and portfolio managers are earning about 20 times what teachers are earning. Yet if the nation’s human capital is more important than its financial capital, that ratio is absurd. The law of supply and demand isn’t repealed at the classroom door. If we want talented men and women to become teachers rather than bankers, we need to pay them far more. He nodded, caught in the net of his own logic.

What do you think?

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Robert Murphy's response... Robert Reich Literally Doesn’t Understand the First Thing About Price of Labor

Donald Boudreaux's response... An Open Letter to Robert Reich

Murphy and Boudreaux are both excellent economists... but evidently they never saw the movie Stand and Deliver.  While there might be a surplus of teachers... there's always going to be a shortage of exceptional teachers.  If we had a truly free-market in education... then we'd expect to see roughly the same income inequality that we see in other fields.

Right now there around 3.7 million full-time elementary and secondary school teachers in the US.  There's a bell curve with a small percentage of below average teachers, a large percentage of average teachers, and a small percentage of above average teachers.  With 3.7 million teachers... it's a given that there's going to be significant disparity in talent.
Individuals differ, one from another, in important and meaningful respects.  They differ in physical strength, in courage, in imagination, in artistic skills and appreciation, in basic intelligence, in preferences, in attitudes toward others, in personal life-styles, in ability to deal socially with others, in Weltanschauung, in power to control others, and in command over nonhuman resources.  No one can deny the elementary validity of this statement, which is of course amply supported by empirical evidence.  We live in a society of individuals, not a society of equals.  We can make little or no progress in analyzing the former as if it were the latter. - James M. Buchanan, The Limits of Liberty
The fact that all teachers are paid roughly the same really doesn't mean that there aren't any exceptional teachers.

As I explained here... Raymond Fisman - Education vs Markets... the problem with schools is that, even with a voucher system, parents are paying for a bundle of teachers.  If all the teachers in a bundle were equally talented then there wouldn't be a problem.  But we've all endured more than a few lousy teachers.

The solution to our educational problems is to unbundle teachers.  This can easily be accomplished by allowing parents to choose which teachers, rather than schools, they give their money to.  The below average teachers will receive below average pay.  The average teachers will receive average pay.  The above average teachers will receive above average pay.  And the small handful of one in a million teachers will receive one in a million pay.

Unfortunately for all of us, the law of supply and demand truly is repealed at the classroom door.  Just like it's repealed in the entire public sector.  But it really shouldn't be.

See also...

Superstar Theory: J.K. Rowling vs Elizabeth Warren
Deirdre McCloskey - Revealing The Unseen

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Teaching Economics To Kids

The other day I was sitting on the couch working on my computer.  On the couch next to mine was a random kid named "Laelia" playing minecraft on her tablet.  And by "random" I mean a friend's kid.  I don't have any kids because, when it comes to this topic, Bryan Caplan doesn't hold a candle to Friedrich Nietzsche...
Every animal, including the bête philosophe, instinctively strives for an optimum of favorable conditions under which it can expend all its strength and achieve its maximal feeling of power; every animal abhors, just as instinctively and with a subtlety of discernment that is "higher than all reason," every kind of intrusion or hindrance that obstructs or could obstruct his path to the optimum (– it is not his path to ‘happiness’ I am talking about, but the path to power, action, the mightiest deeds, and in most cases, actually, his path to misery). Thus the philosopher abhors marriage, together with all that might persuade him to it, – marriage as hindrance and catastrophe on his path to the optimum. Which great philosopher, so far, has been married? Heraclitus, Plato, Descartes, Spinoza, Leibniz, Kant, Schopenhauer – were not; indeed it is impossible to even think about them as married. A married philosopher belongs to comedy, that is my proposition: and that exception, Socrates, the mischievous Socrates, appears to have married ironice, simply in order to demonstrate this proposition. Every philosopher would say what Buddha said when he was told of the birth of a son: ‘Râhula is born to me, a fetter is forged for me’ (Râhula means here ‘a little demon’); every ‘free spirit' ought to have a thoughtful moment, assuming he has previously had a thoughtless one, like the moment experienced by that same Buddha – he thought to himself, ‘living in a house, that unclean place, is cramped; freedom is in leaving the house’: so saying, he left the house. The ascetic ideal points the way to so many bridges to independence that no philosopher can refrain from inwardly rejoicing and clapping hands on hearing the story of all those who, one fine day, decided to say ‘no’ to any curtailment of their liberty, and go off into the desert: even granted they were just strong asses and the complete opposite of a strong spirit. Consequently, what does the ascetic ideal mean for a philosopher? My answer is – you will have guessed ages ago: on seeing an ascetic ideal, the philosopher smiles because he sees an optimum condition of the highest and boldest intellectuality [Geistigkeit], – he does not deny ‘existence’ by doing so, but rather affirms his existence and only his existence, and possibly does this to the point where he is not far from making the outrageous wish: pereat mundus, fiat philosophia, fiat philosophus, fiam!…" - Friedrich Nietzsche, On the Genealogy of Morality

The opportunity cost of having a kid is way too high.  Not sure if that will ever change for me personally.

Most kids are annoying but Laelia, who's around 11, isn't too terrible.  So it's not the end of the world when she somehow manages to persuade my gf to bring her over.  But I don't want her to have too much fun when she's here though, or else she might want to come over more often.  Hence, Econ 101.  But it's not like I really need that much of an excuse to teach somebody about opportunity cost.

It took a few visits but Laelia eventually developed a pretty good grasp of the opportunity cost concept.  This puts her on par with Paul Krugman.  Which means that it doesn't feel like a real noteworthy accomplishment for either Laelia or myself.  Helping Laelia successfully grasp the "earner valuation" concept, on the other hand, now that would be something to write home about.

So there we were in the living room each doing our own thing.  Except for the part where she would frequently narrate out loud what she was doing in minecraft.  Whenever she did so I would think to myself... "unsubscribe...unfollow...".  My ears perked up though when I heard her mention something about using arrows to keep creatures away.  Ah ha!

If you read... Why I Love Your Freedom... then you would know why I thought "Ah ha!"

What follows is a very rough account of my bumbling first attempt to teach a random kid the next level of economics.  To be clear, at no point did I have her full attention.  Minecraft had most of it.  Perhaps I could have used some authority to get her full attention?  Naw....
No discipline is ever requisite to force attendance upon lectures which are really worth the attending, as is well known wherever any such lectures are given. Force and restraint may, no doubt, be in some degree requisite in order to oblige children, or very young boys, to attend to those parts of education which it is thought necessary for them to acquire during that early period of life; but after twelve or thirteen years of age, provided the master does his duty, force or restraint can scarce ever be necessary to carry on any part of education. - Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations
Adam Smith was so cool.

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Xero: Did you say arrows?
Kid: Yeah
Xero: Imagine there's a target on this wall.
Kid: Ok
Xero: Now pretend that the target represents your preferences.  Errr... do you know what "preferences" are?
Kid: No
Xero: Oh.  Uh... your preferences are uh... things that you like.
Kid: Ok
Xero: So pretend that minecraft is an arrow.
Kid: Ok
Xero: How close is minecraft to the target?

[Here's my depiction...



To be clear, I didn't actually have either a target or an arrow.  This is just how it was supposed to look like in imagination land.  And I just "drew" this.

When I asked her how close minecraft was to the target... I moved the hand holding the imaginary minecraft/arrow closer and then further from the imaginary target.]

Kid: Close
Xero: Now here's another arrow [I grabbed the closest "arrow" in reach... Andrew Cohen's book Toleration]  Is this arrow close to the target?




[Unlike with minecraft, this time the "arrow" (product) was actually something that I could hold in my hand.  I also moved it closer and then further from the imaginary target when I asked her the question.]

Kid: No
Xero: What about this other arrow?  [I reached over and grabbed the second closest "arrow"... a box of Samoas (girl scout cookies)].  Is this arrow closer to the target?





Kid: Yeah
Xero: Ok [At this point I wasn't exactly sure what was the best way to proceed.  So I sat there thinking for a bit while she continued playing minecraft.]
Kid: Ooooo! iron!
Kid: I really want to watch Caroline. [I thought that Caroline was some new movie.  Later, when I googled for it, I guessed she meant Coraline.]
Xero: Let's say that you spend your money on Caroline.
Kid: I don't want to watch it that badly!
Xero: Hah!  You want your mom to spend her money on Caroline for you?
Kid: Yeah
Xero: Do you think the producer of Caroline is happy when your mom gives him money?
Kid: Yeah
Xero: Are you happy when people give you money?
Kid: Yeah
Xero: Are the girl scouts happy to get money?
Kid: Yeah
Xero: Are the producers of minecraft happy to get money?
Kid: Yeah
Xero: Was Andrew Cohen, the person who wrote this book, happy when I bought his book?
Kid: Yeah
Xero: So here's the target... [again I made an imaginary target with one arm and held an imaginary arrow in my other hand].  If people want more money do they try and shoot the arrows closer or farther from the target?
Kid: Closer!
Xero:  Exactly!  Every time we buy something we let the producer know that that their arrow, a product, was close to the target, our preferences.  So whenever you give somebody money... you're saying "Hey man nice shot!"

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What ended the lesson was when I tried to teach her the terms "efficient allocation" and "inefficient allocation".  She gave me a blank stare and didn't even attempt to repeat the terms.  And I didn't blame her.  When I said the words out loud to her, it helped me especially appreciate that the terms sound like indistinguishable gibberish. Certainly it would have helped if I had written the words on a chalkboard.  Most people are visual learners.  But it's really preferable to have "tools" that are easier to use.   The revolution was postponed for lack of simpler jargon.

What was super neat though was how quickly my econ lesson, as terrible as it was, was put to good use.  That evening she wanted to watch something on Netflix that really didn't match my preferences.  So I quickly pointed out that what she wanted to watch was close to her target... but really far from my target.  This immediately registered with her and she agreed to keep searching.  After a bit of searching we settled on one of the Fred movies.  Trust me, it could have been worse!

Perhaps an AAR (After Action Review) is appropriate.

What was supposed to happen?

The mission was to teach a kid about earner valuation.  Whenever Laelia is as happy as a kid in a candy store... she should fully understand and appreciate that, because of consumer sovereignty and producer incentives, there are numerous products (arrows) that are close to her preferences (target).  In other words, she should know where better options come from.

What happened?

I used the idea of arrows and a target to try and help illustrate the relationship between preferences and products.  Plus, I tried to explain that, because producers want more money, they try and shoot the arrows closer to people's targets.

What could be improved?

Maybe it would have helped to actually have a lesson plan?  Perhaps it would have helped if she could have seen the disparity in our preferences...




Couldn't hurt to throw in a picture of two people trading and considering what is being gained/lost...




Ideally there should be a book or video that wonderfully/accessibly illustrates the story that I'm struggling to tell...

  1. Choice... we have to choose
  2. We all want to choose the most valuable option (MVO)
  3. Spending has a cost, and an opportunity cost
  4. Choosing the MVO depends on accurate information
  5. Choosing/spending has consequences
  6. Producers aren't omniscient
  7. How we spend our money communicates what our preferences are
  8. Producers want more, rather than less, money
  9. The supply moves closer to our preferences
  10. Everybody benefits because everybody is free to choose

It really seems like this entire story should already exist in some book or video for kids.  Shouldn't it be surprising if it doesn't?  Found this great website... EconKids.  It lists numerous children's books that can help kids understand important economic lessons.  I didn't have a chance to go through them all.  But if anybody does find the "complete" story either there or someplace else... then please let me know!  Because it's got to be a big problem if such a book/video doesn't already exist.

What's the earliest age that an average kid would be able to understand/appreciate this story?  If anybody does attempt to teach/tell this story to some kid... then please let me know the following...

  1. how old the kid was
  2. how you told the story
  3. how well the kid grasped it