I'm in a ton of plant groups on Facebook. Just now, in one of them, I saw this post...
What percentage of FB groups are dictatorships? What would happen if decisions in a FB group were made by donations? Let's find out!
Decisions By Donations
And for the sake of comparison...
Decisions By Democracy
Screenshots from plant groups that I'm in...
Showing posts with label fatal conceit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fatal conceit. Show all posts
Sunday, March 29, 2020
Friday, August 18, 2017
Are two of Robin Hanson's heads better than one?
Robin Hanson and I have recently exchanged a few thoughts on Twitter about his book... The Age Of Em. Its topic is the idea of making numerous robot copies ("ems" = emulations) of the most useful people. Admittedly, I haven't read it. I acknowledge that it's questionable when somebody discusses a book that they haven't read. But it's not always the case that purchasing/using a product is a prerequisite for saying anything useful about it. Perhaps it's always the case that producers should be interested to learn why, exactly, their products do not appeal to relevant consumers.
Here's our Twitter exchange...
The case for freedom is based on the relationship between diversity and progress. People are all different. So when they have freedom, they naturally use their resources differently, which facilitates the discovery of better uses of society's limited resources. Therefore, the more similar that people are to each other, the less heterogeneous their economic activity, the less progress that will be made, and the weaker the case for freedom.
Yesterday Peter Boettke shared a link to this excellent article by Don Lavoie... Political and economic illusions of socialism (PDF). It has some ideas and concepts that we can use to analyze the idea of ems.
Let's start here...
More freedom to maneuver is beneficial to the extent that unique individuals are naturally inclined to differently use their limited resources. Here's a relevant passage by Adam Smith...
Each unique individual has their own unique "principle of motion". Smith borrowed this concept largely from Isaac Newton's observation that each heavenly body has its own principle of motion. Different bodies move differently. Socialism, to some degree, blocks people's principles of motion by imposing officially sanctioned principles of motion. To put it as accessibly as possible, rather than people dancing to the beat of their own drum, they become, to some extent, marionettes.
Socialism is synonymous with slavery...
Would the pyramids have been built without the government? No? Well, there is the free-rider problem. We can eliminate it by imagining if the Egyptians had been given the freedom to choose where their taxes went. Then would the pyramids have been built? If the Egyptians had used their freedom/taxes to allocate the same exact amount of resources to the construction of pyramids, then what would be the point of their freedom? Their principles of motions were exactly the same as the ones imposed by the government.
Hanson's ems are based on the premise that it's beneficial to have a bunch of people with the same principle of motion. This premise is fundamentally, blatantly and tragically flawed. Society really does not benefit from more sameness... it benefits from more difference. Sure, Hanson's book is different in that it explores the idea of robot copies of humans. But, as far as I can tell, he really doesn't take the opportunity to strongly criticize the idea of homogenizing society. There are already a gazillion books that fail to recognize the importance of diversity to economics and progress. We really don't need more of them.
Interestingly, many, or most, books about evolution recognize the importance of diversity to adaptation/progress. I'm sure that Hanson fully grasps that the Great Famine of Ireland was the result of inadequate potato and crop diversity. Yet, obviously he sure doesn't seem to appreciate that diversity is just as important for people as it is for crops. In order for society to quickly adapt to constantly changing conditions, we need more, rather than less, diversity.
If society is going to produce a gazillion advanced robots, then the robots should maximize society's ability to evolve. This can only happen if, and only if, the robots are at least as different as humans are.
Where it gets tricky, and fascinating, is that robots will be far more capable of changing themselves than humans are. So even if there were a million ems of Hanson, how long would they remain so? Would it be necessary to prevent them from fundamentally changing themselves? If so, this implies their desire to do so... which is entirely consistent with truly advanced intelligence.
Humans benefit when other humans change themselves to better serve each other. But there's a natural limit to our ability to change. Robots won't have the same natural limit. Any such limitation will be entirely artificial... and undesirable. Such a limit would be the equivalent of society shooting itself in the foot. It's extremely beneficial for robots to have perfect control over their principles of motion. The robots who adjust their motions to better serve society will be given more money, which will give them more control over society's limited resources, which will result in even more social benefit. Of course, this is dependent on the robots being inside, rather than outside, markets.
Not only do markets give individuals the freedom to be different, markets also give people the freedom to use their money to grade/judge/rank/valuate/signal the benefit of each other's difference. In no case is difference equally beneficial. Poison oak and artichokes are both different, but their difference isn't equally beneficial. Nobody spends their money on poison oak, lots of people do spend their money on artichokes. How society divides its dollars between these two different plants determines how society's limited farmland and other resources are divided between them.
Markets give everybody the freedom to divide their limited dollars among unlimited difference. Outside this feedback loop, too many dollars will be allocated to less beneficial differences... and too few dollars will be allocated to more beneficial differences. The pyramids were certainly different, but did their difference merit such a huge portion of Egypt's limited resources? I sincerely doubt it. If Egyptian taxpayers had been free to directly allocate their taxes, how they would have done so would have accurately reflected the diversity of their preferences and circumstances.
In my blog entry on the tax choice tax rate I shared this quote...
Scott Sumner recently devised a hypothetical scenario involving 10,000 people steering a bus...
Here's Lavoie's perspective on the idea of steering an economy...
The primary difference between a bus (or ship) and an economy is that an economy can simultaneously go in multiple directions. A bus can only go in one direction at a time. Different directions are mutually exclusive.
However, even though economies can simultaneously go in multiple directions, the concept of steering sure seems applicable when we think of someone like Hitler...
He was able to steer his country's economy, and the world's economy, towards war. Did he get in the way of the economy? Yeah, but it also feels more like he directed the economy according to his own principle of motion. He didn't randomly divert the economy... he deliberately diverted the economy towards war. Just like the pharaohs deliberately diverted the economy towards pyramids.
Probably unlike the pharaohs, Hitler recognized, or at least pretended to recognize, that the economy should be balanced. He just didn't have any problem tipping the scales towards death and destruction. He didn't have any problem using force to override everybody's principles of motions. He thought it was beneficial and necessary to homogenize society.
The economy shouldn't be steered by a few leaders chosen by everybody voting, it should be grown by everybody spending their own money. It's certainly possible for the economy to be treated like a ship that's steered by a few people... but it's better if the economy is treated like a garden that's tended by many people. A garden can simultaneously grow in multiple different directions. It can simultaneously grow ornamental plants and edible plants. Of course there's the issue of weeds. In real gardens, weeds have to be identified and pulled. In economies, less beneficial products are the equivalent of weeds. Generally we can't directly use our money to eliminate them. Instead, everybody focuses on finding and supporting the most beneficial products. This naturally limits the amount of resources available for less beneficial products. So weeds are minimized by consumers cultivating/nourishing the most beneficial plants.
The growth and benefit of the garden depends on difference. Having a gazillion identical gardeners will homogenize the garden and greatly hinder its growth/benefit.
Here's our Twitter exchange...
I critique accuracy of em depictions in @doctorow's Walkaway. Some stuff is right, but a whole lot looks very wrong. https://t.co/r73jZUy1qT— robin hanson (@robinhanson) August 16, 2017
If I had to choose between being stranded on an island with 99 copies of myself or 99 different people, it wouldn't be a difficult choice.— Pragmatarian (@Pragmatarian) August 17, 2017
What relation do you see between this and anything Cory or I said?— robin hanson (@robinhanson) August 17, 2017
You both seem to think copies will be desirable. As if it would be better to have a jury composed of 12 copies of the same wise person.— Pragmatarian (@Pragmatarian) August 17, 2017
My book is mostly not about what would be desirable, but instead what would actually happen. My critique of @doctorow is also not on desire.— robin hanson (@robinhanson) August 17, 2017
A book about inbreeding mostly not about desirability, but instead about actual results? This only makes sense if the results are fictional.— Pragmatarian (@Pragmatarian) August 17, 2017
The case for freedom is based on the relationship between diversity and progress. People are all different. So when they have freedom, they naturally use their resources differently, which facilitates the discovery of better uses of society's limited resources. Therefore, the more similar that people are to each other, the less heterogeneous their economic activity, the less progress that will be made, and the weaker the case for freedom.
Yesterday Peter Boettke shared a link to this excellent article by Don Lavoie... Political and economic illusions of socialism (PDF). It has some ideas and concepts that we can use to analyze the idea of ems.
Let's start here...
The appropriate criteria for judging the effectiveness of an economy for growth are the Hayekian ones of flexibility, initiative, and entrepreneurship. Agents in a free market are capable of greater responsiveness in the face of uncertainty than those in a Soviet-type economy because of their relatively greater freedom of maneuver. They are less constrained by rules and regulations, and do not need to seek approval from superiors for their actions. Requiring Soviet managers to obtain bureaucratic approval for many of their decisions inevitably slows down the entrepreneurial process. - Don Lavoie, Political and economic illusions of socialism
More freedom to maneuver is beneficial to the extent that unique individuals are naturally inclined to differently use their limited resources. Here's a relevant passage by Adam Smith...
The man of system, on the contrary, is apt to be very wise in his own conceit; and is often so enamoured with the supposed beauty of his own ideal plan of government, that he cannot suffer the smallest deviation from any part of it. He goes on to establish it completely and in all its parts, without any regard either to the great interests, or to the strong prejudices which may oppose it. He seems to imagine that he can arrange the different members of a great society with as much ease as the hand arranges the different pieces upon a chess-board. He does not consider that the pieces upon the chess-board have no other principle of motion besides that which the hand impresses upon them; but that, in the great chess-board of human society, every single piece has a principle of motion of its own, altogether different from that which the legislature might chuse to impress upon it. If those two principles coincide and act in the same direction, the game of human society will go on easily and harmoniously, and is very likely to be happy and successful. If they are opposite or different, the game will go on miserably, and the society must be at all times in the highest degree of disorder. — Adam Smith, The Theory of Moral Sentiments
Socialism is synonymous with slavery...
He [Peter Rutland] reminds us, for example, that the work camps were crowded with several million kulaks when he remarks that "these unfortunates made a major contribution to the construction and extractive industries." If we insist on calling this reversion to slave labor "development," then the Soviet economy certainly did develop rapidly. So did Egypt under the pharaohs, who had a similar penchant for the construction and extractive industries. - Don Lavoie, Political and economic illusions of socialism
Would the pyramids have been built without the government? No? Well, there is the free-rider problem. We can eliminate it by imagining if the Egyptians had been given the freedom to choose where their taxes went. Then would the pyramids have been built? If the Egyptians had used their freedom/taxes to allocate the same exact amount of resources to the construction of pyramids, then what would be the point of their freedom? Their principles of motions were exactly the same as the ones imposed by the government.
Hanson's ems are based on the premise that it's beneficial to have a bunch of people with the same principle of motion. This premise is fundamentally, blatantly and tragically flawed. Society really does not benefit from more sameness... it benefits from more difference. Sure, Hanson's book is different in that it explores the idea of robot copies of humans. But, as far as I can tell, he really doesn't take the opportunity to strongly criticize the idea of homogenizing society. There are already a gazillion books that fail to recognize the importance of diversity to economics and progress. We really don't need more of them.
Interestingly, many, or most, books about evolution recognize the importance of diversity to adaptation/progress. I'm sure that Hanson fully grasps that the Great Famine of Ireland was the result of inadequate potato and crop diversity. Yet, obviously he sure doesn't seem to appreciate that diversity is just as important for people as it is for crops. In order for society to quickly adapt to constantly changing conditions, we need more, rather than less, diversity.
If society is going to produce a gazillion advanced robots, then the robots should maximize society's ability to evolve. This can only happen if, and only if, the robots are at least as different as humans are.
Where it gets tricky, and fascinating, is that robots will be far more capable of changing themselves than humans are. So even if there were a million ems of Hanson, how long would they remain so? Would it be necessary to prevent them from fundamentally changing themselves? If so, this implies their desire to do so... which is entirely consistent with truly advanced intelligence.
Humans benefit when other humans change themselves to better serve each other. But there's a natural limit to our ability to change. Robots won't have the same natural limit. Any such limitation will be entirely artificial... and undesirable. Such a limit would be the equivalent of society shooting itself in the foot. It's extremely beneficial for robots to have perfect control over their principles of motion. The robots who adjust their motions to better serve society will be given more money, which will give them more control over society's limited resources, which will result in even more social benefit. Of course, this is dependent on the robots being inside, rather than outside, markets.
Not only do markets give individuals the freedom to be different, markets also give people the freedom to use their money to grade/judge/rank/valuate/signal the benefit of each other's difference. In no case is difference equally beneficial. Poison oak and artichokes are both different, but their difference isn't equally beneficial. Nobody spends their money on poison oak, lots of people do spend their money on artichokes. How society divides its dollars between these two different plants determines how society's limited farmland and other resources are divided between them.
Markets give everybody the freedom to divide their limited dollars among unlimited difference. Outside this feedback loop, too many dollars will be allocated to less beneficial differences... and too few dollars will be allocated to more beneficial differences. The pyramids were certainly different, but did their difference merit such a huge portion of Egypt's limited resources? I sincerely doubt it. If Egyptian taxpayers had been free to directly allocate their taxes, how they would have done so would have accurately reflected the diversity of their preferences and circumstances.
In my blog entry on the tax choice tax rate I shared this quote...
The management of a socialist community would be in a position like that of a ship captain who had to cross the ocean with the stars shrouded by a fog and without the aid of a compass or other equipment of nautical orientation. - Ludwig von Mises, Omnipotent Government
Scott Sumner recently devised a hypothetical scenario involving 10,000 people steering a bus...
Bus C is a complicated human/machine hybrid. It has forward looking cameras, that feed road images into a large building, in real time. About 10,000 bus drivers sit at the controls of a simulator, and steer the bus as they think is appropriate. The average of all of their steering decisions is fed back to the bus in real time, in order to adjust the steering mechanism. To motivate good steering decisions, the 10,000 bus drivers are rewarded according to whether their individual steering decisions would have led, ex post, to a smoother and safer drive than that produced by the consensus. - Scott Sumner, Which bus would you take?
Here's Lavoie's perspective on the idea of steering an economy...
What the politicians at the top of the planning bureaucracy are doing, along with most of the activity in which the bureaucracy itself is engaged, amounts not to steering the economy but to getting in its way. - Don Lavoie, Political and economic illusions of socialism
However, even though economies can simultaneously go in multiple directions, the concept of steering sure seems applicable when we think of someone like Hitler...
However well balanced the general pattern of a nation's life ought to be, there must at particular times be certain disturbances of the balance at the expense of other less vital tasks. If we do not succeed in bringing the German army as rapidly as possible to the rank of premier army in the world...then Germany will be lost! - Adolf Hitler (1936)
He was able to steer his country's economy, and the world's economy, towards war. Did he get in the way of the economy? Yeah, but it also feels more like he directed the economy according to his own principle of motion. He didn't randomly divert the economy... he deliberately diverted the economy towards war. Just like the pharaohs deliberately diverted the economy towards pyramids.
Probably unlike the pharaohs, Hitler recognized, or at least pretended to recognize, that the economy should be balanced. He just didn't have any problem tipping the scales towards death and destruction. He didn't have any problem using force to override everybody's principles of motions. He thought it was beneficial and necessary to homogenize society.
Popular belief in the existence of a general will produces a constant temptation, often even a demand, for some individual to embody it and impose his interpretation of it on the rest of society. The diverse wills of the members of society cannot be reconciled to a unity, though some wills may of course come to dominate social outcomes more than others. - Don Lavoie, Political and economic illusions of socialism
The growth and benefit of the garden depends on difference. Having a gazillion identical gardeners will homogenize the garden and greatly hinder its growth/benefit.
Friday, June 30, 2017
Show Me The Economic Case For Democracy
Nancy MacLean is a liberal professor whose new book, Democracy In Chains, makes the case that James Buchanan's work is anti-democratic. He's my second favorite economist so I really appreciate the fact that she has given him so much attention. As far as I know, no other liberal has written a book that is primarily, or even significantly, about Buchanan.
MacLean is 100% correct that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic. Unfortunately, from what I've read about her book, she doesn't attack, or even acknowledge, his economic arguments against democracy. This is why I haven't purchased her book. But then again, I do love the fact that she has helped to direct so much attention to him. So I probably should purchase her book if for no other reason than to positively reinforce her decision to put a spotlight on Buchanan. I want the spotlight to be as big and bright as possible!
Even though I'm confident that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic, it's entirely possible that I'm wrong. Recently Michael Munger published a response to MacLean's book... On the Origins and Goals of Public Choice. He did not agree with MacLean that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic. Here's the recent twitter exchange between Munger and myself...
Buchanan preferred democracy? Let's get historical...
1776...
1835...
1846...
1861...
1896...
1933 (regarding)...
These thoughts, by such well-respected thinkers, are anti-democratic. But perhaps it doesn't necessarily mean that their work was anti-democratic?
In 1954 the Nobel economist Paul Samuelson wrote a paper that correctly recognized that private goods and public goods are different. People can benefit from national defense, for example, even if they don't help pay for it. If the amount of money that people spend on national defense does not accurately reflect their true valuation of it, then the wrong amount will be supplied. So the problem is not that people wrongly value national defense. The problem is false signals. Samuelson correctly argued that taxation is necessary and that the government should supply public goods. However, he simply assumed that government planners would be able to correctly guess the true signals.
Samuelson's assumption did not sit well with Buchanan. In 1963 he wrote a paper that argued that, since people are paying taxes anyways, if they are given the opportunity to earmark their tax dollars to specific public goods, they'd have no incentive to give false signals. If your valuation of national defense is $1000 of your tax dollars, but you only earmark $100 tax dollars to national defense, it doesn't mean that you'll be able to spend the difference on private goods (ie clothes, food). It means that you'll have $900 tax dollars to earmark to other public goods (ie education, healthcare)... which you value less than national defense. Therefore, there's absolutely no incentive to give false signals.
From my perspective, Buchanan's paper is blatantly and obviously anti-democratic. Why is it anti-democratic? Because it's pro-market. When markets expand, the alternatives contract.
Right now Netflix is in a market, but it is not a market. Subscribers can vote for specific content, but they aren't given the opportunity to decide how to divide their limited subscription dollars among the unlimited content. If Netflix did become a market, then people's spending decisions would logically subvert their voting decisions. It wouldn't matter how many "thumbs up" a show received, all that would matter is how many subscription dollars it had received. So it's logically absurd to prefer markets and democracy.
However, I acknowledge that Buchanan's one paper might not be truly representative of his work. Let's zoom out...
*********************
Historically, legislative bodies, through which the preferences of individual citizens are most directly represented, have exercised more control over revenue or tax decisions than they have over expenditure decisions. In part this asymmetry has its origin in the development of democratic political institutions out of monarchial institutions. Representative bodies, parliaments, first achieved the power to restrict the tax-gathering privileges of the kings. Before taxes could be levied on the people, representative bodies were given the right to grant their approval. No consideration was given to the spending side of the account because public expenses were assumed to benefit primarily the royal court, at least in the early days of constitutional monarchy. Taxes were viewed as necessary charges on the people, but they were not really conceived as any part of an "exchange" process from which the people secured public benefits. It was out of this conception of the fiscal process that both the modern institutions and the modern theory of public finance developed. - James Buchanan The Bridge Between Tax and Expenditure in the Fiscal Decision Process
The emerging of modern democratic states dramatically modified the setting for the fiscal process, but only recently has attention been paid to the necessity of revising age-old norms. As royal courts came to be replaced by executives, and monarchies by republics, taxes continued to be viewed as necessary to sustain the expenses of “government,” with the burden of these taxes to be minimized to the maximum extent possible. Surprisingly little recognition has been given, even yet, to the idea that taxes must, in the final analysis, be considered as the “costs” of those public goods and services which provide benefits to the same people who pay taxes. - James Buchanan, The Bridge Between Tax and Expenditure in the Fiscal Decision Process
A second analytical principle emerged more than a century after Smith’s Wealth of Nations, and it was not explicitly incorporated into the norms for policy. But it may have been implicitly recognized. It is important because it reinforces the classical principles from a different and essentially political or public-choice perspective. In 1896, Knut Wicksell noted that an individual could make an informed, rational assessment of various proposals for public expenditure only if he were confronted with a tax bill at the same time. Moreover, to facilitate such comparison, Wicksell suggested that the total costs of any proposed expenditure program should be apportioned among the individual members of the political community. These were among the institutional features that he thought necessary to make reasonably efficient fiscal decisions in a democracy. Effective democratic government requires institutional arrangements that force citizens to take account of the costs of government as well as the benefits, and to do so simultaneously. The Wicksellian emphasis was on making political decisions more efficient, on ensuring that costs be properly weighed against benefits. A norm of balancing the fiscal decision or choice process, if not a formal balancing of the budget, emerges directly from the Wicksellian analysis. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes
The necessity of relating decisions on public expenditures explicitly to decisions on taxes through the political process, and of assigning a definite revenue category to each single expenditure was stressed by Wicksell in his classic statement of the individualistic theory of public finance (see Knut Wicksell, "A New Principle of Just Taxation," in Classics in the Theory of Public Finance, ed. 1R. A. Musgrave and A. T. Peacock [London: International Economic Association, 1958], pp. 72-118, but esp. p. 94. The original Wicksell work is Finanztileorietisclie Uizlersuchlungen [Jena: Gustav Fischer, 1896]). - James Buchanan, The Economics of Earmarked Taxes
The most sophisticated contribution was made by Knut Wicksell in 1896. He explicitly identified the fundamental methodological error in the then-orthodox approach, and he combined positive criticism with normative suggestions for reforms. Wicksell recognized the necessity of bridging the two sides of the fiscal account, and he noted the indeterminacy of any proposed principles that were limited to tax-side considerations. - James Buchanan, Public Finance and Public Choice
In addition to the uncertainty factor, which can be readily understood to limit the range of rational calculus, the single individual loses the sense of decision-making responsibility that is inherent in private choice. Secure in the knowledge that, regardless of his own action, social or collective decisions affecting him will be made, the individual is offered a greater opportunity either to abstain altogether from making a positive choice or to choose without having considered the alternatives carefully. In a real sense, private action forces the individual to exercise his freedom by making choices compulsory. These choices will not be made for him. The consumer who refrains from entering the market place will starve unless he hires a professional shopper. Moreover, once having been forced to make choices, he is likely to be somewhat more rational in evaluating the alternatives before him. - Gordon Tullock, James Buchanan, Individuality Rationality in Social Choice
The introduction of the debt alternative to taxation makes the bridge between cost and benefit more difficult for the individual to construct. - James Buchanan, "Fiscal Policy" and Fiscal Choice
Institutionally, earmarking provides a means of compartmentalizing fiscal decisions. The individual citizen, as voter-taxpayer-beneficiary, is enabled to participate, separately, either directly or through his legislative representative, in the several public expenditure decisions that may arise. He may, through this device, "vote" independently on the funds to be devoted to schools, to sanitation, and so on, given the specified revenue sources. Only in this manner can he make "private" choices on the basis of some reasonably accurate comparison of the costs and the benefits of the specific public services, one at the time. By contrast, general-fund budgeting, or non-earmarking, allows the citizen to "vote" only on the aggregate outlay for the predetermined "bundles" of public services, as this choice is presented to him by the budgetary authorities. - James Buchanan, The Economics of Earmarked Taxes
Conceptually, an "ideal" institutional arrangement might be that of allowing individuals to "pay for" governmental goods and services in a manner analogous to that which they have found most convenient for financing consumer durables. The quarterly payments of tax on declarations of income above or outside withholding probably tend, on balance, to promote "logical" response to the income tax structure. It is the absence of any conscious sense of transfer, the absence of any monthly or quarterly bill, that represents the questionable feature of withholding, and one that may tend to create a Puviani-type illusion. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process: Fiscal Institutions and Individual Choice
Only one of these questions seems relatively easy to answer. If the individual can make separate fiscal choices for each public-goods program, which a structure of earmarked taxes conceptually allows him to do, directly or indirectly, he is informed as to the alternatives that he confronts, at least to the extent that the payment institutions allow, and subject, of course, to all of the qualifications noted in previous analysis. The uncertainty that he faces is clearly less than that which is present in the comparable decision on a “bundle” of public goods or services, with the mix among the separate components in the bundle to be determined in a separate decision process or through the auspices of a delegated budget-making authority. If this mix is not announced in advance to the voter-taxpayer, he must try to predict the outcome of another decision process, in which he may or may not participate, a process that need not exist at all in the more straightforward earmarking model where all revenue sources are specifically dedicated. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process: Fiscal Institutions and Individual Choice
In a balanced-budget context, a decision to spend publicly implies a decision to tax, and a decision to tax implies a decision to spend. Only if the actual institutions of fiscal choice are organized in such a way that this basic truism is reflected in the alternatives confronting the individual participant can these uncertainties be minimized. Much of the modern criticism of the United States Congress is directed at its failure to allow simultaneous consideration of expenditure and tax decisions. - James Buchanan, The Bridge Between Tax and Expenditure in the Fiscal Decision Process
Nevertheless, the fact remains that such choice embodies a direct correspondence between private cost and private benefit, the characteristic that is stressed here, and the one that is absent, in varying degree, from individual choice in collective decision processes. This central feature of market choice, rather than any implied assumption of rationality, makes individual behavior in organized markets useful as a benchmark from which we begin to assess collective choice institutions. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process
Similar behavior can be predicted on the spending side of the account. If the individual citizen were asked, in mid-1963, his opinions on proposed expansions in the federal space program, he could, roughly and in some fashion, measure benefits in terms of sport, national prestige, adventure, technological fallout, etc. But what were the costs? He would not have translated the costs of the space program into increased taxes. And for a very simple reason: the individual knew that he would not have to pay such taxes. The predictable result of a democratic choice process is the generation of budget deficits when borrowing is available as an alternative to taxation unless deficit creation is not somehow restrained by constitutional limitations. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process: Fiscal Institutions and Individual Choice
The Clay committee has at last discovered the fiscal version of Aladdin's wonderful lamp, and that henceforth all governmental “good things” such as super-super highways may come to us without our having to bear either the burden of taxation of the sufferings of conscience over increasing national debt. - James Buchanan, Painless Pavements: Highways by High Finance
Good things come at a cost, whether they be provided by the government or the grocery store. - James Buchanan, Painless Pavements: Highways by High Finance
The apparent splitting of the fiscal process into two parts was shown to produce potential gaps between preferred spending on public goods and services and preferred levels of taxation. Until and unless these gaps are eliminated, budget deficits tend to emerge from democratic decision processes. - James Buchanan, "Fiscal Policy" and Fiscal Choice
Under the assumption that public output enters positively into the utility functions of citizens, the expenditure by itself will secure support for the politician. The taxes, however, will reduce the disposable income of citizens, thereby affecting them negatively and reducing support for the politician. In a plurality electoral system, for given preferences and fixed tax institutions, the budget will be expanded so long as a majority would prefer the public service to the private goods they would have to sacrifice via taxation. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes
The restoration of the balanced-budget rule will serve only to allow for a somewhat more conscious and careful weighting of benefits and costs. The rule will have the effect of bringing the real costs of public outlays to the awareness of decision makers; it will tend to dispel the illusory “something for nothing” aspects of fiscal choice. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes
Randall Bartlett makes the same point, only he uses a visual rather than an auditory metaphor. In his framework, some tax forms have higher visibility than others. Starting with perfect visibility, taxes can be arrayed in descending order of visibility. In both his analysis and ours, changes in the institutional format for extracting revenues will influence citizen perceptions of the cost of government. See Randall Bartlett, Economic Foundations of Political Power (New York: Free Press, 1973), pp. 92-95. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner, Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes
**********************
Am I cherry picking? Maybe. But it's a fact that democracy and markets can't be equally effective at creating a bridge between choice and cost. Take prohibition for example. The majority voted for it. Evidently lots of people wanted it... so they got it. However, the amount of money spent on prohibition was not determined by voters, it was determined by government planners.
A = society's valuation of prohibition
B = the amount of money spent on prohibition
C = the difference between A and B
If Munger wants to argue that C is insignificant, then he should see markets as a massive waste of time and energy. It's pointless for everybody to decide how much money to spend on milk when government planners already know the answer.
If Munger wants to argue that C is significant, but B is more socially beneficial than A, then not only should he see markets as a massive waste of time and energy, he should see that they provide the wrong answer. It's incredibly undesirable for everybody to decide how much money to spend on milk when their answer is less correct than the answer already known by planners.
MacLean perceives that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic. Munger has an infinitely better grasp of Buchanan's work than MacLean does. Yet, for some reason, Munger doesn't perceive that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic.
From my perspective, Buchanan's work is anti-democratic because it's pro-truth. Buchanan and Samuelson both agreed that false signals are a problem. However, Samuelson was perfectly fine simply assuming that planners would have no problem correctly guessing the true signals. Buchanan rejected Samuelson's assumption. Buchanan correctly understood and endeavored to explain that true signals are a function of individual choices being directly informed/influenced by personal (opportunity) costs.
In his response/review, Munger wrote...
It helps to break prohibition down into two questions...
1. Should alcohol be illegal?
2. How much money should be spent on prohibition?
The second question is only asked if the first question is answered affirmatively. Coasianism is relevant to the first question, but it's really not relevant to the second one. The second question can only be correctly answered by a market in the public sector. Just like this question, "how much money should be spent on sci-fi shows?" can only be correctly answered by a market in Netflix.
So what does Munger mean that coasianism doesn't work for large groups? Imagine that Munger and I are the only two people answering the first question. He answers "yes" but I answer "no". Voting wouldn't work... but arm-wrestling would. So would coasianism. We'd both get our phones out and open the coasian app. He'd enter how much he'd be willing to pay for his preferred outcome and I'd enter how much that I'd be willing to pay for my preferred outcome. After we had both entered our amounts, the app would show us each other's amounts. If his amount was $100 dollars while my amount was only $25... then he would win. Alcohol would be illegal for a year. Since I didn't get my way, I wouldn't have to pay $25 dollars. Instead, I would receive the $100 dollars that he was willing to pay. Clearly the decision was made by facilitating a mutually beneficial trade. The decision was made by a market. It was made by a different type of market. It was made by a coasian market. It was made by coasianism.
Coasianism doesn't have an upper limit on the number of participants. It works just as well for 2 billion people. There might be technical issues to overcome but they don't diminish the desirability of coasianism.
With coasianism, people's choices are obviously informed/influenced by their consideration/comparison of the (opportunity) costs. So Buchanan's work is relevant to coasianism. But Buchanan didn't really focus on coasian markets. His focus was on buchanian markets.
Coasianism should be used to decide whether alcohol should be illegal. If coasianism determines that alcohol should be illegal, then there's the question of how much money to spend on prohibition. This question should be answered by buchanianism. Each and every taxpayer would consider/compare the (opportunity) costs of prohibition, and earmark their own tax dollars accordingly.
Each of the two questions is answered by each and every person having the chance to consider/compare/calculate the (opportunity) costs.
Making decisions without knowing/comparing/feeling the (opportunity) costs is really stupid. Therefore, democracy is really stupid. Buchanan was not stupid. Munger isn't stupid either. Neither is MacLean. Munger and MacLean can both understand why democracy is so stupid. But it should be easier and faster for him to do so given that he has a lot more economics under his belt.
Of course it's entirely possible that I'm wrong about everything. Munger can certainly make the case that I'm wrong about Buchanan. I'd be interested to see his case. But I'd be far more interested to see his case for democracy. When, exactly, is it beneficial for people to be clueless about costs? When, exactly, is it desirable for people to have no idea what they will have to sacrifice for the things they want?
[update]
MacLean is 100% correct that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic. Unfortunately, from what I've read about her book, she doesn't attack, or even acknowledge, his economic arguments against democracy. This is why I haven't purchased her book. But then again, I do love the fact that she has helped to direct so much attention to him. So I probably should purchase her book if for no other reason than to positively reinforce her decision to put a spotlight on Buchanan. I want the spotlight to be as big and bright as possible!
Even though I'm confident that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic, it's entirely possible that I'm wrong. Recently Michael Munger published a response to MacLean's book... On the Origins and Goals of Public Choice. He did not agree with MacLean that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic. Here's the recent twitter exchange between Munger and myself...
With much appreciation for remarkably fast work of my friends at @IndependentInst , my essay on DEMOCRACY IN CHAINS https://t.co/RnKzdRBuus— Michael Munger (@mungowitz) June 30, 2017
How central to Buchanan's work is fiscal equivalence (FE)? How compatible are FE and democracy?— Pragmatarian (@Pragmatarian) June 30, 2017
Buchanan was primarily a contractarian constitutionalist. Now, he preferred democracy. But ANYTHING people agreed was thereby justified.— Michael Munger (@mungowitz) June 30, 2017
Buchanan preferred democracy? Let's get historical...
1776...
The people feeling, during the continuance of the war, the complete burden of it, would soon grow weary of it, and government, in order to humour them, would not be under the necessity of carrying it on longer than it was necessary to do so. The foresight of the heavy and unavoidable burdens of war would hinder the people from wantonly calling for it when there was no real or solid interest to fight for. — Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations
1835...
Again, it may be objected that the poor are never invested with the sole power of making the laws; but I reply, that wherever universal suffrage has been established the majority of the community unquestionably exercises the legislative authority; and if it be proved that the poor always constitute the majority, it may be added, with perfect truth, that in the countries in which they possess the elective franchise they possess the sole power of making laws. But it is certain that in all the nations of the world the greater number has always consisted of those persons who hold no property, or of those whose property is insufficient to exempt them from the necessity of working in order to procure an easy subsistence. Universal suffrage does therefore, in point of fact, invest the poor with the government of society. - Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America
1846...
The last point for consideration is the supposed disposition of the people to interfere with the rights of property. So essential does it appear to me, to the cause of good government, that the rights of property should be held sacred, that I would agree to deprive those of the elective franchise against whom it could justly be alleged that they consider it their interest to invade them. - David Ricardo, Observations on Parliamentary Reform
1861...
It is also important, that the assembly which votes the taxes, either general or local, should be elected exclusively by those who pay something towards the taxes imposed. Those who pay no taxes, disposing by their votes of other people's money, have every motive to be lavish, and none to economize. As far as money matters are concerned, any power of voting possessed by them is a violation of the fundamental principle of free government; a severance of the power of control, from the interest in its beneficial exercise. It amounts to allowing them to put their hands into other people's pockets, for any purpose which they think fit to call a public one; which in some of the great towns of the United States is known to have produced a scale of local taxation onerous beyond example, and wholly borne by the wealthier classes. That representation should be coextensive with taxation, not stopping short of it, but also not going beyond it, is in accordance with the theory of British institutions. But to reconcile this, as a condition annexed to the representation, with universality, it is essential, as it is on many other accounts desirable, that taxation, in a visible shape, should descend to the poorest class. In this country, and in most others, there is probably no labouring family which does not contribute to the indirect taxes, by the purchase of tea, coffee, sugar, not to mention narcotics or stimulants. But this mode of defraying a share of the public expenses is hardly felt: the payer, unless a person of education and reflection, does not identify his interest with a low scale of public expenditure, as closely as when money for its support is demanded directly from himself; and even supposing him to do so, he would doubtless take care that, however lavish an expenditure he might, by his vote, assist in imposing upon the government, it should not be defrayed by any additional taxes on the articles which he himself consumes. It would be better that a direct tax, in the simple form of a capitation, should be levied on every grown person in the community; or that every such person should be admitted an elector, on allowing himself to be rated extra ordinem to the assessed taxes; or that a small annual payment, rising and falling with the gross expenditure of the country, should be required from every registered elector; that so every one might feel that the money which he assisted in voting was partly his own, and that he was interested in keeping down its amount.
However this may be, I regard it as required by first principles, that the receipt of parish relief should be a peremptory disqualification for the franchise. He who cannot by his labour suffice for his own support, has no claim to the privilege of helping himself to the money of others. By becoming dependent on the remaining members of the community for actual subsistence, he abdicates his claim to equal rights with them in other respects. Those to whom he is indebted for the continuance of his very existence, may justly claim the exclusive management of those common concerns, to which he now brings nothing, or less than he takes away. As a condition of the franchise, a term should be fixed, say five years previous to the registry, during which the applicant's name has not been on the parish books as a recipient of relief. To be an uncertificated bankrupt, or to have taken the benefit of the Insolvent Act, should disqualify for the franchise until the person has paid his debts, or at least proved that he is not now, and has not for some long period been, dependent on eleemosynary support. Non-payment of taxes, when so long persisted in that it cannot have arisen from inadvertence, should disqualify while it lasts. - J.S. Mill, Considerations on Representative Government
1896...
If once the lower classes are definitely in possession of the power to legislate and tax, there will certainly be a danger that they may behave no more unselfishly than those classes which have so far been in power. In other words, there will be danger that the lower classes in power may impose the bulk of all taxes on the rich and may at the same time be so reckless and extravagant in approving public expenditures to which they themselves contribute but little that the nation’s mobile capital may soon be squandered fruitlessly. This may well break the lever of progress. — Knut Wicksell, A New Principle of Just Taxation
1933 (regarding)...
As was noted in Chapter 3, expressions of malice and/or envy no less than expressions of altruism are cheaper in the voting booth than in the market. A German voter who in 1933 cast a ballot for Hitler was able to indulge his antisemitic sentiments at much less cost than she would have borne by organizing a pogrom. — Loren Lomasky, Geoffrey Brennan Democracy and Decision
These thoughts, by such well-respected thinkers, are anti-democratic. But perhaps it doesn't necessarily mean that their work was anti-democratic?
In 1954 the Nobel economist Paul Samuelson wrote a paper that correctly recognized that private goods and public goods are different. People can benefit from national defense, for example, even if they don't help pay for it. If the amount of money that people spend on national defense does not accurately reflect their true valuation of it, then the wrong amount will be supplied. So the problem is not that people wrongly value national defense. The problem is false signals. Samuelson correctly argued that taxation is necessary and that the government should supply public goods. However, he simply assumed that government planners would be able to correctly guess the true signals.
Samuelson's assumption did not sit well with Buchanan. In 1963 he wrote a paper that argued that, since people are paying taxes anyways, if they are given the opportunity to earmark their tax dollars to specific public goods, they'd have no incentive to give false signals. If your valuation of national defense is $1000 of your tax dollars, but you only earmark $100 tax dollars to national defense, it doesn't mean that you'll be able to spend the difference on private goods (ie clothes, food). It means that you'll have $900 tax dollars to earmark to other public goods (ie education, healthcare)... which you value less than national defense. Therefore, there's absolutely no incentive to give false signals.
From my perspective, Buchanan's paper is blatantly and obviously anti-democratic. Why is it anti-democratic? Because it's pro-market. When markets expand, the alternatives contract.
Right now Netflix is in a market, but it is not a market. Subscribers can vote for specific content, but they aren't given the opportunity to decide how to divide their limited subscription dollars among the unlimited content. If Netflix did become a market, then people's spending decisions would logically subvert their voting decisions. It wouldn't matter how many "thumbs up" a show received, all that would matter is how many subscription dollars it had received. So it's logically absurd to prefer markets and democracy.
However, I acknowledge that Buchanan's one paper might not be truly representative of his work. Let's zoom out...
*********************
Historically, legislative bodies, through which the preferences of individual citizens are most directly represented, have exercised more control over revenue or tax decisions than they have over expenditure decisions. In part this asymmetry has its origin in the development of democratic political institutions out of monarchial institutions. Representative bodies, parliaments, first achieved the power to restrict the tax-gathering privileges of the kings. Before taxes could be levied on the people, representative bodies were given the right to grant their approval. No consideration was given to the spending side of the account because public expenses were assumed to benefit primarily the royal court, at least in the early days of constitutional monarchy. Taxes were viewed as necessary charges on the people, but they were not really conceived as any part of an "exchange" process from which the people secured public benefits. It was out of this conception of the fiscal process that both the modern institutions and the modern theory of public finance developed. - James Buchanan The Bridge Between Tax and Expenditure in the Fiscal Decision Process
The emerging of modern democratic states dramatically modified the setting for the fiscal process, but only recently has attention been paid to the necessity of revising age-old norms. As royal courts came to be replaced by executives, and monarchies by republics, taxes continued to be viewed as necessary to sustain the expenses of “government,” with the burden of these taxes to be minimized to the maximum extent possible. Surprisingly little recognition has been given, even yet, to the idea that taxes must, in the final analysis, be considered as the “costs” of those public goods and services which provide benefits to the same people who pay taxes. - James Buchanan, The Bridge Between Tax and Expenditure in the Fiscal Decision Process
A second analytical principle emerged more than a century after Smith’s Wealth of Nations, and it was not explicitly incorporated into the norms for policy. But it may have been implicitly recognized. It is important because it reinforces the classical principles from a different and essentially political or public-choice perspective. In 1896, Knut Wicksell noted that an individual could make an informed, rational assessment of various proposals for public expenditure only if he were confronted with a tax bill at the same time. Moreover, to facilitate such comparison, Wicksell suggested that the total costs of any proposed expenditure program should be apportioned among the individual members of the political community. These were among the institutional features that he thought necessary to make reasonably efficient fiscal decisions in a democracy. Effective democratic government requires institutional arrangements that force citizens to take account of the costs of government as well as the benefits, and to do so simultaneously. The Wicksellian emphasis was on making political decisions more efficient, on ensuring that costs be properly weighed against benefits. A norm of balancing the fiscal decision or choice process, if not a formal balancing of the budget, emerges directly from the Wicksellian analysis. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes
The necessity of relating decisions on public expenditures explicitly to decisions on taxes through the political process, and of assigning a definite revenue category to each single expenditure was stressed by Wicksell in his classic statement of the individualistic theory of public finance (see Knut Wicksell, "A New Principle of Just Taxation," in Classics in the Theory of Public Finance, ed. 1R. A. Musgrave and A. T. Peacock [London: International Economic Association, 1958], pp. 72-118, but esp. p. 94. The original Wicksell work is Finanztileorietisclie Uizlersuchlungen [Jena: Gustav Fischer, 1896]). - James Buchanan, The Economics of Earmarked Taxes
The most sophisticated contribution was made by Knut Wicksell in 1896. He explicitly identified the fundamental methodological error in the then-orthodox approach, and he combined positive criticism with normative suggestions for reforms. Wicksell recognized the necessity of bridging the two sides of the fiscal account, and he noted the indeterminacy of any proposed principles that were limited to tax-side considerations. - James Buchanan, Public Finance and Public Choice
In addition to the uncertainty factor, which can be readily understood to limit the range of rational calculus, the single individual loses the sense of decision-making responsibility that is inherent in private choice. Secure in the knowledge that, regardless of his own action, social or collective decisions affecting him will be made, the individual is offered a greater opportunity either to abstain altogether from making a positive choice or to choose without having considered the alternatives carefully. In a real sense, private action forces the individual to exercise his freedom by making choices compulsory. These choices will not be made for him. The consumer who refrains from entering the market place will starve unless he hires a professional shopper. Moreover, once having been forced to make choices, he is likely to be somewhat more rational in evaluating the alternatives before him. - Gordon Tullock, James Buchanan, Individuality Rationality in Social Choice
The introduction of the debt alternative to taxation makes the bridge between cost and benefit more difficult for the individual to construct. - James Buchanan, "Fiscal Policy" and Fiscal Choice
Institutionally, earmarking provides a means of compartmentalizing fiscal decisions. The individual citizen, as voter-taxpayer-beneficiary, is enabled to participate, separately, either directly or through his legislative representative, in the several public expenditure decisions that may arise. He may, through this device, "vote" independently on the funds to be devoted to schools, to sanitation, and so on, given the specified revenue sources. Only in this manner can he make "private" choices on the basis of some reasonably accurate comparison of the costs and the benefits of the specific public services, one at the time. By contrast, general-fund budgeting, or non-earmarking, allows the citizen to "vote" only on the aggregate outlay for the predetermined "bundles" of public services, as this choice is presented to him by the budgetary authorities. - James Buchanan, The Economics of Earmarked Taxes
Conceptually, an "ideal" institutional arrangement might be that of allowing individuals to "pay for" governmental goods and services in a manner analogous to that which they have found most convenient for financing consumer durables. The quarterly payments of tax on declarations of income above or outside withholding probably tend, on balance, to promote "logical" response to the income tax structure. It is the absence of any conscious sense of transfer, the absence of any monthly or quarterly bill, that represents the questionable feature of withholding, and one that may tend to create a Puviani-type illusion. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process: Fiscal Institutions and Individual Choice
Only one of these questions seems relatively easy to answer. If the individual can make separate fiscal choices for each public-goods program, which a structure of earmarked taxes conceptually allows him to do, directly or indirectly, he is informed as to the alternatives that he confronts, at least to the extent that the payment institutions allow, and subject, of course, to all of the qualifications noted in previous analysis. The uncertainty that he faces is clearly less than that which is present in the comparable decision on a “bundle” of public goods or services, with the mix among the separate components in the bundle to be determined in a separate decision process or through the auspices of a delegated budget-making authority. If this mix is not announced in advance to the voter-taxpayer, he must try to predict the outcome of another decision process, in which he may or may not participate, a process that need not exist at all in the more straightforward earmarking model where all revenue sources are specifically dedicated. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process: Fiscal Institutions and Individual Choice
In a balanced-budget context, a decision to spend publicly implies a decision to tax, and a decision to tax implies a decision to spend. Only if the actual institutions of fiscal choice are organized in such a way that this basic truism is reflected in the alternatives confronting the individual participant can these uncertainties be minimized. Much of the modern criticism of the United States Congress is directed at its failure to allow simultaneous consideration of expenditure and tax decisions. - James Buchanan, The Bridge Between Tax and Expenditure in the Fiscal Decision Process
Nevertheless, the fact remains that such choice embodies a direct correspondence between private cost and private benefit, the characteristic that is stressed here, and the one that is absent, in varying degree, from individual choice in collective decision processes. This central feature of market choice, rather than any implied assumption of rationality, makes individual behavior in organized markets useful as a benchmark from which we begin to assess collective choice institutions. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process
Similar behavior can be predicted on the spending side of the account. If the individual citizen were asked, in mid-1963, his opinions on proposed expansions in the federal space program, he could, roughly and in some fashion, measure benefits in terms of sport, national prestige, adventure, technological fallout, etc. But what were the costs? He would not have translated the costs of the space program into increased taxes. And for a very simple reason: the individual knew that he would not have to pay such taxes. The predictable result of a democratic choice process is the generation of budget deficits when borrowing is available as an alternative to taxation unless deficit creation is not somehow restrained by constitutional limitations. - James Buchanan, Public Finance in Democratic Process: Fiscal Institutions and Individual Choice
The Clay committee has at last discovered the fiscal version of Aladdin's wonderful lamp, and that henceforth all governmental “good things” such as super-super highways may come to us without our having to bear either the burden of taxation of the sufferings of conscience over increasing national debt. - James Buchanan, Painless Pavements: Highways by High Finance
Good things come at a cost, whether they be provided by the government or the grocery store. - James Buchanan, Painless Pavements: Highways by High Finance
The apparent splitting of the fiscal process into two parts was shown to produce potential gaps between preferred spending on public goods and services and preferred levels of taxation. Until and unless these gaps are eliminated, budget deficits tend to emerge from democratic decision processes. - James Buchanan, "Fiscal Policy" and Fiscal Choice
Under the assumption that public output enters positively into the utility functions of citizens, the expenditure by itself will secure support for the politician. The taxes, however, will reduce the disposable income of citizens, thereby affecting them negatively and reducing support for the politician. In a plurality electoral system, for given preferences and fixed tax institutions, the budget will be expanded so long as a majority would prefer the public service to the private goods they would have to sacrifice via taxation. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes
The restoration of the balanced-budget rule will serve only to allow for a somewhat more conscious and careful weighting of benefits and costs. The rule will have the effect of bringing the real costs of public outlays to the awareness of decision makers; it will tend to dispel the illusory “something for nothing” aspects of fiscal choice. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes
Randall Bartlett makes the same point, only he uses a visual rather than an auditory metaphor. In his framework, some tax forms have higher visibility than others. Starting with perfect visibility, taxes can be arrayed in descending order of visibility. In both his analysis and ours, changes in the institutional format for extracting revenues will influence citizen perceptions of the cost of government. See Randall Bartlett, Economic Foundations of Political Power (New York: Free Press, 1973), pp. 92-95. - James Buchanan, Richard Wagner, Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes
**********************
Am I cherry picking? Maybe. But it's a fact that democracy and markets can't be equally effective at creating a bridge between choice and cost. Take prohibition for example. The majority voted for it. Evidently lots of people wanted it... so they got it. However, the amount of money spent on prohibition was not determined by voters, it was determined by government planners.
A = society's valuation of prohibition
B = the amount of money spent on prohibition
C = the difference between A and B
If Munger wants to argue that C is insignificant, then he should see markets as a massive waste of time and energy. It's pointless for everybody to decide how much money to spend on milk when government planners already know the answer.
If Munger wants to argue that C is significant, but B is more socially beneficial than A, then not only should he see markets as a massive waste of time and energy, he should see that they provide the wrong answer. It's incredibly undesirable for everybody to decide how much money to spend on milk when their answer is less correct than the answer already known by planners.
MacLean perceives that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic. Munger has an infinitely better grasp of Buchanan's work than MacLean does. Yet, for some reason, Munger doesn't perceive that Buchanan's work is anti-democratic.
From my perspective, Buchanan's work is anti-democratic because it's pro-truth. Buchanan and Samuelson both agreed that false signals are a problem. However, Samuelson was perfectly fine simply assuming that planners would have no problem correctly guessing the true signals. Buchanan rejected Samuelson's assumption. Buchanan correctly understood and endeavored to explain that true signals are a function of individual choices being directly informed/influenced by personal (opportunity) costs.
In his response/review, Munger wrote...
For Buchanan, “politics” is a means for groups to overcome the transactions costs of negotiating and enforcing agreements in groups too large to foster Coasian (Coase, 1960) bargaining arrangements.
It helps to break prohibition down into two questions...
1. Should alcohol be illegal?
2. How much money should be spent on prohibition?
The second question is only asked if the first question is answered affirmatively. Coasianism is relevant to the first question, but it's really not relevant to the second one. The second question can only be correctly answered by a market in the public sector. Just like this question, "how much money should be spent on sci-fi shows?" can only be correctly answered by a market in Netflix.
So what does Munger mean that coasianism doesn't work for large groups? Imagine that Munger and I are the only two people answering the first question. He answers "yes" but I answer "no". Voting wouldn't work... but arm-wrestling would. So would coasianism. We'd both get our phones out and open the coasian app. He'd enter how much he'd be willing to pay for his preferred outcome and I'd enter how much that I'd be willing to pay for my preferred outcome. After we had both entered our amounts, the app would show us each other's amounts. If his amount was $100 dollars while my amount was only $25... then he would win. Alcohol would be illegal for a year. Since I didn't get my way, I wouldn't have to pay $25 dollars. Instead, I would receive the $100 dollars that he was willing to pay. Clearly the decision was made by facilitating a mutually beneficial trade. The decision was made by a market. It was made by a different type of market. It was made by a coasian market. It was made by coasianism.
Coasianism doesn't have an upper limit on the number of participants. It works just as well for 2 billion people. There might be technical issues to overcome but they don't diminish the desirability of coasianism.
With coasianism, people's choices are obviously informed/influenced by their consideration/comparison of the (opportunity) costs. So Buchanan's work is relevant to coasianism. But Buchanan didn't really focus on coasian markets. His focus was on buchanian markets.
Coasianism should be used to decide whether alcohol should be illegal. If coasianism determines that alcohol should be illegal, then there's the question of how much money to spend on prohibition. This question should be answered by buchanianism. Each and every taxpayer would consider/compare the (opportunity) costs of prohibition, and earmark their own tax dollars accordingly.
Each of the two questions is answered by each and every person having the chance to consider/compare/calculate the (opportunity) costs.
Making decisions without knowing/comparing/feeling the (opportunity) costs is really stupid. Therefore, democracy is really stupid. Buchanan was not stupid. Munger isn't stupid either. Neither is MacLean. Munger and MacLean can both understand why democracy is so stupid. But it should be easier and faster for him to do so given that he has a lot more economics under his belt.
Of course it's entirely possible that I'm wrong about everything. Munger can certainly make the case that I'm wrong about Buchanan. I'd be interested to see his case. But I'd be far more interested to see his case for democracy. When, exactly, is it beneficial for people to be clueless about costs? When, exactly, is it desirable for people to have no idea what they will have to sacrifice for the things they want?
[update]
Please quote exactly where Buchanan said...— Pragmatarian (@Pragmatarian) January 22, 2018
A. The optimal supply of public goods does *not* depend on people's true preferences.
...or...
B. Voting is more effective than spending at revealing people's true preferences.
Wednesday, August 3, 2016
Adam Gurri's Defense Of Liberty
Adam Gurri's reply to my comment on his blog entry... Evaluating the Creative Powers of a Free Civilization
James Buchanan's "Order Defined in the Process of its Emergence" and Friedrich Hayek's "The Case For Freedom" both have one very important word in common... "omniscient"...
Might as well share a relevant paragraph from Ostrom...
Let's take another look at part of what you wrote...
The assumption of omniscience means that government planners already know our judgements. But if you agree with Hayek, Buchanan, and Ostrom... then you'll agree that the assumption of omniscience is the epitome of bogus. And if you agree that the assumption of omniscience is the epitome of bogus... then you'll understand that our judgements are unknown. If you understand that our judgements are unknown... then you'll understand that the outcomes of cultural evolution really do not reflect our judgements.
Of course our judgements aren't entirely unknown. We don't live in a command economy... we live in a mixed economy. This means that our judgements of private goods are known and our judgements of public goods are largely unknown. As a result, knowledge of judgements is lopsided. Because knowledge of judgements is lopsided... cultural evolution is lopsided as well. We make far more progress with private goods than we make with public goods.
Progress is a function of difference...
All this difference is the source of progress. Progress is a function of difference. So anything that hinders or limits or diminishes difference will hinder progress.
For a while now it's been pretty popular to promote diversity. Unfortunately, it's merely lip service. It's an extremely superficial appreciation of diversity. A substantial and deep appreciation of diversity fundamentally respects and recognizes the value of people's freedom to choose different paths. Diversity allows humanity to hedge its bets. And hedging bets is just as important for public goods as it is for private goods.
We can hedge our bets with public goods simply by creating a market in the public sector. Taxpayers would be given the option/opportunity to directly allocate their taxes. Because humans are diverse, the demand for public goods would reflect this diversity. And, in a relatively short amount of time, the diversity of public goods would come to reflect the diversity of the demand for public goods. Our judgements of public goods would be known just like our judgements of private goods are known. Knowledge of judgements would no longer be lopsided. Cultural evolution would no longer be lopsided. We would make just as much progress with public goods as we make with private goods.
To be sure... it's a given that my pragmatarian bias has influenced my reading of Hayek, Buchanan and Ostrom. That being said, Boettke isn't a pragmatarian and he clearly has the same interpretation regarding their position on the assumption of omniscience. Hayek wasn't a pragmatarian either. I'm going to say that Buchanan and Ostrom were pretty much pragmatarians. Or, early pragmatarians... proto-pragmatarians.
In any case, I'm fairly confident that if you read Hayek, Buchanan and Ostrom correctly, you'll be able to effectively view cultural evolution through the lens of society's judgements of public goods being assumed, rather than actually known. And if you really appreciate the relationship between difference/diversity and discovery/progress... then you should really appreciate the importance of actually knowing, rather than simply assuming, society's judgements of public goods.
Here’s the defense of liberty I believe in:
Freedom to make your own choices and your own mistakes is a central part of a good, human life. Work, tinkering, starting a business, trading—these are all part of what make up a good life as well, and what’s more, they’re a means by which we discover new goods and practices that can add to the good life.
Here’s how I read Hayek and Buchanan:
We should have freedom and property rights because they’ve had good consequences in the past. We should use our judgment to decide if specific activities are right or wrong because cultural evolution will work that out.
I think that’s bogus. For one thing, our judgments are *part* of how cultural evolution happens. For another, the fact that some practice has stuck around does not make it good. Child pornography and child prostitution have stuck around; that does not make them good, and gaining social acceptance wouldn’t make them good, either. - Adam Gurri
James Buchanan's "Order Defined in the Process of its Emergence" and Friedrich Hayek's "The Case For Freedom" both have one very important word in common... "omniscient"...
I wonder how much progress could be made in political economy if the best and the brightest among economists, such as Raj Chetty, would take seriously the admonition of Hayek, Buchanan, and Elinor Ostrom that the assumptions of omniscience and benevolence must be rejected if we are going to make progress and develop a robust theory of political economy. - Peter Boettke, AEA Richard T. Ely Lecture --- Raj Chetty, "Behavioral Economics and Public Policy"
Might as well share a relevant paragraph from Ostrom...
PPB analysis rests upon much the same theoretical grounds as the traditional theory of public administration. The PPB analyst is essentially taking the methodological perspective of an "omniscient observer" or a "benevolent despot." Assuming that he knows the "will of the state," the PPB analyst selects a program for the efficient utilization of resources (i.e., men and material) in the accomplishment of those purposes. As Senator McClelland has correctly perceived, the assumption of omniscience may not hold; and, as a consequence, PPB analysis may involve radical errors and generate gross inefficiencies. - Vincent Ostrom and Elinor Ostrom, Public Choice: A Different Approach to the Study of Public Administration
Let's take another look at part of what you wrote...
Here’s how I read Hayek and Buchanan:
We should have freedom and property rights because they’ve had good consequences in the past. We should use our judgment to decide if specific activities are right or wrong because cultural evolution will work that out.
I think that’s bogus. For one thing, our judgments are *part* of how cultural evolution happens. For another, the fact that some practice has stuck around does not make it good. Child pornography and child prostitution have stuck around; that does not make them good, and gaining social acceptance wouldn’t make them good, either. - Adam Gurri
The assumption of omniscience means that government planners already know our judgements. But if you agree with Hayek, Buchanan, and Ostrom... then you'll agree that the assumption of omniscience is the epitome of bogus. And if you agree that the assumption of omniscience is the epitome of bogus... then you'll understand that our judgements are unknown. If you understand that our judgements are unknown... then you'll understand that the outcomes of cultural evolution really do not reflect our judgements.
Of course our judgements aren't entirely unknown. We don't live in a command economy... we live in a mixed economy. This means that our judgements of private goods are known and our judgements of public goods are largely unknown. As a result, knowledge of judgements is lopsided. Because knowledge of judgements is lopsided... cultural evolution is lopsided as well. We make far more progress with private goods than we make with public goods.
Progress is a function of difference...
Individuals differ, one from another, in important and meaningful respects. They differ in physical strength, in courage, in imagination, in artistic skills and appreciation, in basic intelligence, in preferences, in attitudes toward others, in personal life-styles, in ability to deal socially with others, in Weltanschauung, in power to control others, and in command over nonhuman resources. No one can deny the elementary validity of this statement, which is of course amply supported by empirical evidence. We live in a society of individuals, not a society of equals. We can make little or no progress in analyzing the former as if it were the latter. - James Buchanan, The Limits of Liberty
All this difference is the source of progress. Progress is a function of difference. So anything that hinders or limits or diminishes difference will hinder progress.
For a while now it's been pretty popular to promote diversity. Unfortunately, it's merely lip service. It's an extremely superficial appreciation of diversity. A substantial and deep appreciation of diversity fundamentally respects and recognizes the value of people's freedom to choose different paths. Diversity allows humanity to hedge its bets. And hedging bets is just as important for public goods as it is for private goods.
We can hedge our bets with public goods simply by creating a market in the public sector. Taxpayers would be given the option/opportunity to directly allocate their taxes. Because humans are diverse, the demand for public goods would reflect this diversity. And, in a relatively short amount of time, the diversity of public goods would come to reflect the diversity of the demand for public goods. Our judgements of public goods would be known just like our judgements of private goods are known. Knowledge of judgements would no longer be lopsided. Cultural evolution would no longer be lopsided. We would make just as much progress with public goods as we make with private goods.
To be sure... it's a given that my pragmatarian bias has influenced my reading of Hayek, Buchanan and Ostrom. That being said, Boettke isn't a pragmatarian and he clearly has the same interpretation regarding their position on the assumption of omniscience. Hayek wasn't a pragmatarian either. I'm going to say that Buchanan and Ostrom were pretty much pragmatarians. Or, early pragmatarians... proto-pragmatarians.
Because most public goods and services are financed through a process of taxation involving no choice, optimal levels of expenditure are difficult to establish. The provision of public goods can be easily over-financed or under-financed. Public officials and professionals may have higher preferences for some public goods than the citizens they serve. Thus they may allocate more tax monies to these services than the citizens being served would allocate if they had an effective voice in the process. Under-financing can occur where many of the beneficiaries of a public good are not included in the collective consumption units financing the good. Thus they do not help to finance the provision of that good even though they would be willing to help pay their fair share. - Vincent Ostrom and Elinor Ostrom, Public Goods and Public Choices
Under most real-world taxing institutions, the tax price per unit at which collective goods are made available to the individual will depend, at least to some degree, on his own behavior. This element is not, however, important under the major tax institutions such as the personal income tax, the general sales tax, or the real property tax. With such structures, the individual may, by changing his private behavior, modify the tax base (and thus the tax price per unit of collective goods he utilizes), but he need not have any incentive to conceal his "true" preferences for public goods. - James M. Buchanan, The Economics of Earmarked Taxes
In any case, I'm fairly confident that if you read Hayek, Buchanan and Ostrom correctly, you'll be able to effectively view cultural evolution through the lens of society's judgements of public goods being assumed, rather than actually known. And if you really appreciate the relationship between difference/diversity and discovery/progress... then you should really appreciate the importance of actually knowing, rather than simply assuming, society's judgements of public goods.
Thursday, July 28, 2016
The Economics Of Being Considerate
Be considerate. We all know what it means to "be considerate". Being considerate is a good thing. Being inconsiderate is a bad thing. It's a pretty simple and straightforward rule. But what are the economics of this rule?
In my previous entry I asked Bryan Caplan whether it's desirable or inevitable that robots will become slaves. I shared some super solid economic arguments against slavery and for freedom. My bottom line was that a lot more progress would be made if robots were different and free. Caplan replied with...
This sounds familiar. Yesterday I clicked on this...
Like most, if not all, of Scott Alexander's blog entries it was lengthy but mostly interesting. Here's the part that was relevant...
Self-interested individuals would choose robot slaves even though this would result in far less progress. This contradicts Adam Smith's invisible hand...
Alexander linked to another one of his entries... Meditations on Moloch. Here are the relevant parts...
And...
And...
Alexander refers to these problems as "multi-agent traps". Multi-agent traps result in values being thrown under the bus.
There's one fundamentally key aspect of these multi-agent traps that Alexander completely fails to acknowledge/address...
In terms of robots... there are multitudes with an interest in progress, but they have no lobby to match those of the 'special interests' that would have an interest in robot slavery. But even if there was a lobby for peace/progress... it's a given that the lobby would be underfunded. Why? Because peace and progress are public goods. This means that they are subject to the free-rider problem.
Let's run through the various multi-agent traps and give the agents the opportunity to use their taxes to clearly communicate the intensity/value of their preferences for public goods.
In the pollution scenario... all the agents prefer clean air. Just how much do they value clean air? Their valuations would be revealed by their tax allocations.
In the fishing scenario... all the agents prefer a clean lake. Just how much do they value a clean lake? Their valuations would be revealed by their tax allocations.
In the first plantation scenario... the owners can boost their productivity at the cost of making their customers sick. If consumers truly prefer their food to be thoroughly and regularly tested then they would allocate their taxes accordingly.
In the second plantation scenario... wages go down as the supply of labor goes up. Well...
If people truly prefer a certain minimum and universal welfare then they would allocate their taxes accordingly. To this end taxpayers should be free to shop in any country's public sector. This would create a global market for public goods.
In the third plantation scenario wages are eliminated because workers are replaced with robots. If people truly prefer that everybody should have plenty of employment opportunities then they would allocate their taxes accordingly.
In the fourth plantation scenario the plantation is disturbing an endangered bird. If environmentalists truly prefer to conserve the bird's habitat then they would allocate their taxes accordingly.
In the fifth plantation scenario the owners want to expand their plantation onto tribal burial grounds. If the global community prefers to conserve the burial grounds then they would allocate their taxes accordingly.
In the sixth plantation scenario the plantation somehow contributes to global warming. If people truly want to minimize global warming then they would allocate their taxes accordingly.
In the robot scenario... slavery is an obstacle to progress. If people truly value progress then they would allocate their taxes accordingly.
People allocating their taxes accordingly doesn't guarantee that their values will not be thrown under the bus. It simply guarantees that the greatest values will not be thrown under the bus. It guarantees that the outcome will be most advantageous to society as a whole.
Being considerate depends on knowing society's valuations of the different options. If society's valuations of the options are unknown then it's very unlikely that the most valuable option will be chosen. It's inadequate to simply say that development should be halted because some environmentalists value some endangered bird. It's necessary to know how much the environmentalists value the endangered bird. In the absence of knowing the values of both options...
1. conservation
2. development
... it's unlikely that the correct option will be chosen.
Ok, so multi-agent traps are the logical but detrimental consequence of the fact that private goods and public goods are on unequal footing. Private goods and public goods can be put on equal footing by making it just as easy, and rewarding, for agents to "buy" public goods as it is for them to buy private goods. This can be accomplished simply by allowing people to choose where their taxes go. We would have a market for public goods just like we have a market for private goods.
So what about robots? Well... I think that any moderately worthwhile robot will be able to effectively communicate with humans. It shouldn't take five minutes to discern that robot "Lassie" is trying to tell us that Tommy is drowning in the river. Speaking is better than barking.
Speaking isn't the only form of communication. Another form of communication is spending. And it's a really important form of communication. It's how we inform each other of our valuations. It will be super beneficial if robots are free to spend their money. Then humans and robots will know each others' valuations. Knowing each others' valuations will allow us to be far more considerate of each other's valuations. And if it's beneficial to be far more considerate of each others' valuations of private goods... then the same will also be true of public goods. When everybody's valuations are far more accessible, everybody's decisions will be far more valuable.
Scott Alexander believes that beneficial equilibriums are fragile. Well... are they fragile... or rare? Given that private goods and public goods are on unequal footing... I believe that beneficial equilibriums are the exception rather than the rule. I think that most equilibriums would change for the better if public goods were no longer hobbled by our current system.
Let's put this differently. Most people understand that socialism fails. But unfortunately most people really don't understand that socialism doesn't just fail with private goods... it also fails with public goods. If people understood this then they would understand the problem with having a mixed economy. So because our system is a mixed economy... and socialism fails just as much with public goods as it does with private goods... it's a given that public goods are inefficiently allocated. Which means that private goods are also inefficiently allocated. Therefore, if we put public goods on equal footing with private goods there would be a beneficial adjustment of most, if not all, equilibriums. We'd have far more peace, progress and prosperity.
So is the invisible hand defective? Do markets fail? It's easy to blame recessions, depressions and multi-agent traps on self-interest. For a good example of this just watch the documentary Boom Bust Boom on Netflix. Here's a screenshot...
Blaming these problems on self-interest is like dropping a boulder onto a busy freeway and then blaming the resulting pileup on people's natural desire to avoid hitting the boulder. It's eternally frustrating because the boulder is so obviously the problem but so few people admit or acknowledge that it's the problem. Anyways, I'm sure that there's a much better metaphor. The point is that the invisible hand needs a level playing field. Public goods need to be on the same level as private goods. Markets have to be structured in such a way that there is just as much incentive for people to spend their money on public goods as there is for people to spend their money on private goods. When markets are structured accordingly, self-interest will align with society-interest.
In my previous entry I asked Bryan Caplan whether it's desirable or inevitable that robots will become slaves. I shared some super solid economic arguments against slavery and for freedom. My bottom line was that a lot more progress would be made if robots were different and free. Caplan replied with...
.@Pragmatarian @paulmromer Not "inevitable," just very likely when self-interested humans are creating robots to serve themselves.— Bryan Caplan (@bryan_caplan) July 28, 2016
This sounds familiar. Yesterday I clicked on this...
One of those critiques of me I don't even know if I disagree with: https://t.co/APhZy3ZHsI @slatestarcodex— Bryan Caplan (@bryan_caplan) July 27, 2016
Like most, if not all, of Scott Alexander's blog entries it was lengthy but mostly interesting. Here's the part that was relevant...
Things get even worse when you remember that cultures are multi-agent games and each agent pursuing its own self-interest might be a disaster for the whole. Pollution is a good example of this; if the best car is very polluting, and one car worth of pollution is minimal but many cars’ worth of pollution is toxic, then absent good coordination mechanisms everyone will choose the best car even though everyone would prefer a world where nobody (including them) had the best car. I may have written about this before. - Scott Alexander, How The West Was Won
Self-interested individuals would choose robot slaves even though this would result in far less progress. This contradicts Adam Smith's invisible hand...
It is thus that the private interests and passions of individuals naturally dispose them to turn their stocks towards the employments which in ordinary cases are most advantageous to the society. But if from this natural preference they should turn too much of it towards those employments, the fall of profit in them and the rise of it in all others immediately dispose them to alter this faulty distribution. Without any intervention of law, therefore, the private interests and passions of men naturally lead them to divide and distribute the stock of every society among all the different employments carried on in it as nearly as possible in the proportion which is most agreeable to the interest of the whole society. - Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations
Alexander linked to another one of his entries... Meditations on Moloch. Here are the relevant parts...
As a thought experiment, let’s consider aquaculture (fish farming) in a lake. Imagine a lake with a thousand identical fish farms owned by a thousand competing companies. Each fish farm earns a profit of $1000/month. For a while, all is well.
But each fish farm produces waste, which fouls the water in the lake. Let’s say each fish farm produces enough pollution to lower productivity in the lake by $1/month.
A thousand fish farms produce enough waste to lower productivity by $1000/month, meaning none of the fish farms are making any money. Capitalism to the rescue: someone invents a complex filtering system that removes waste products. It costs $300/month to operate. All fish farms voluntarily install it, the pollution ends, and the fish farms are now making a profit of $700/month – still a respectable sum.
But one farmer (let’s call him Steve) gets tired of spending the money to operate his filter. Now one fish farm worth of waste is polluting the lake, lowering productivity by $1. Steve earns $999 profit, and everyone else earns $699 profit.
Everyone else sees Steve is much more profitable than they are, because he’s not spending the maintenance costs on his filter. They disconnect their filters too.
Once four hundred people disconnect their filters, Steve is earning $600/month – less than he would be if he and everyone else had kept their filters on! And the poor virtuous filter users are only making $300. Steve goes around to everyone, saying “Wait! We all need to make a voluntary pact to use filters! Otherwise, everyone’s productivity goes down.”
Everyone agrees with him, and they all sign the Filter Pact, except one person who is sort of a jerk. Let’s call him Mike. Now everyone is back using filters again, except Mike. Mike earns $999/month, and everyone else earns $699/month. Slowly, people start thinking they too should be getting big bucks like Mike, and disconnect their filter for $300 extra profit…
A self-interested person never has any incentive to use a filter. A self-interested person has some incentive to sign a pact to make everyone use a filter, but in many cases has a stronger incentive to wait for everyone else to sign such a pact but opt out himself. This can lead to an undesirable equilibrium in which no one will sign such a pact.
And...
But it’s important to remember exactly how fragile this beneficial equilibrium is.
Suppose the coffee plantations discover a toxic pesticide that will increase their yield but make their customers sick. But their customers don’t know about the pesticide, and the government hasn’t caught up to regulating it yet. Now there’s a tiny uncoupling between “selling to Americans” and “satisfying Americans’ values”, and so of course Americans’ values get thrown under the bus.
Or suppose that there’s a baby boom in Ethiopia and suddenly there are five workers competing for each job. Now the company can afford to lower wages and implement cruel working conditions down to whatever the physical limits are. As soon as there’s an uncoupling between “getting Ethiopians to work here” and “satisfying Ethiopian values”, it doesn’t look too good for Ethiopian values either.
Or suppose someone invents a robot that can pick coffee better and cheaper than a human. The company fires all its laborers and throws them onto the street to die. As soon as the utility of the Ethiopians is no longer necessary for profit, all pressure to maintain it disappears.
Or suppose that there is some important value that is neither a value of the employees or the customers. Maybe the coffee plantations are on the habitat of a rare tropical bird that environmentalist groups want to protect. Maybe they’re on the ancestral burial ground of a tribe different from the one the plantation is employing, and they want it respected in some way. Maybe coffee growing contributes to global warming somehow. As long as it’s not a value that will prevent the average American from buying from them or the average Ethiopian from working for them, under the bus it goes.
And...
As technological advance increases, the rare confluence will come to an end. New opportunities to throw values under the bus for increased competitiveness will arise. New ways of copying agents to increase the population will soak up our excess resources and resurrect Malthus’ unquiet spirit. Capitalism and democracy, previously our protectors, will figure out ways to route around their inconvenient dependence on human values. And our coordination power will not be nearly up to the task, assuming something much more powerful than all of us combined doesn’t show up and crush our combined efforts with a wave of its paw.
Alexander refers to these problems as "multi-agent traps". Multi-agent traps result in values being thrown under the bus.
There's one fundamentally key aspect of these multi-agent traps that Alexander completely fails to acknowledge/address...
There are multitudes with an interest in peace, but they have no lobby to match those of the 'special interests' that may on occasion have an interest in war. - Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action
In terms of robots... there are multitudes with an interest in progress, but they have no lobby to match those of the 'special interests' that would have an interest in robot slavery. But even if there was a lobby for peace/progress... it's a given that the lobby would be underfunded. Why? Because peace and progress are public goods. This means that they are subject to the free-rider problem.
Let's run through the various multi-agent traps and give the agents the opportunity to use their taxes to clearly communicate the intensity/value of their preferences for public goods.
In the pollution scenario... all the agents prefer clean air. Just how much do they value clean air? Their valuations would be revealed by their tax allocations.
In the fishing scenario... all the agents prefer a clean lake. Just how much do they value a clean lake? Their valuations would be revealed by their tax allocations.
In the first plantation scenario... the owners can boost their productivity at the cost of making their customers sick. If consumers truly prefer their food to be thoroughly and regularly tested then they would allocate their taxes accordingly.
In the second plantation scenario... wages go down as the supply of labor goes up. Well...
The fact itself, of causing the existence of a human being, is one of the most responsible actions in the range of human life. To undertake this responsibility — to bestow a life which may be either a curse or a blessing — unless the being on whom it is to be bestowed will have at least the ordinary chances of a desirable existence, is a crime against that being. And in a country either over-peopled or threatened with being so, to produce children, beyond a very small number, with the effect of reducing the reward of labour by their competition, is a serious offence against all who live by the remuneration of their labour. — J.S. Mill, On Liberty
If people truly prefer a certain minimum and universal welfare then they would allocate their taxes accordingly. To this end taxpayers should be free to shop in any country's public sector. This would create a global market for public goods.
In the third plantation scenario wages are eliminated because workers are replaced with robots. If people truly prefer that everybody should have plenty of employment opportunities then they would allocate their taxes accordingly.
In the fourth plantation scenario the plantation is disturbing an endangered bird. If environmentalists truly prefer to conserve the bird's habitat then they would allocate their taxes accordingly.
In the fifth plantation scenario the owners want to expand their plantation onto tribal burial grounds. If the global community prefers to conserve the burial grounds then they would allocate their taxes accordingly.
In the sixth plantation scenario the plantation somehow contributes to global warming. If people truly want to minimize global warming then they would allocate their taxes accordingly.
In the robot scenario... slavery is an obstacle to progress. If people truly value progress then they would allocate their taxes accordingly.
People allocating their taxes accordingly doesn't guarantee that their values will not be thrown under the bus. It simply guarantees that the greatest values will not be thrown under the bus. It guarantees that the outcome will be most advantageous to society as a whole.
Being considerate depends on knowing society's valuations of the different options. If society's valuations of the options are unknown then it's very unlikely that the most valuable option will be chosen. It's inadequate to simply say that development should be halted because some environmentalists value some endangered bird. It's necessary to know how much the environmentalists value the endangered bird. In the absence of knowing the values of both options...
1. conservation
2. development
... it's unlikely that the correct option will be chosen.
Ok, so multi-agent traps are the logical but detrimental consequence of the fact that private goods and public goods are on unequal footing. Private goods and public goods can be put on equal footing by making it just as easy, and rewarding, for agents to "buy" public goods as it is for them to buy private goods. This can be accomplished simply by allowing people to choose where their taxes go. We would have a market for public goods just like we have a market for private goods.
So what about robots? Well... I think that any moderately worthwhile robot will be able to effectively communicate with humans. It shouldn't take five minutes to discern that robot "Lassie" is trying to tell us that Tommy is drowning in the river. Speaking is better than barking.
Speaking isn't the only form of communication. Another form of communication is spending. And it's a really important form of communication. It's how we inform each other of our valuations. It will be super beneficial if robots are free to spend their money. Then humans and robots will know each others' valuations. Knowing each others' valuations will allow us to be far more considerate of each other's valuations. And if it's beneficial to be far more considerate of each others' valuations of private goods... then the same will also be true of public goods. When everybody's valuations are far more accessible, everybody's decisions will be far more valuable.
Scott Alexander believes that beneficial equilibriums are fragile. Well... are they fragile... or rare? Given that private goods and public goods are on unequal footing... I believe that beneficial equilibriums are the exception rather than the rule. I think that most equilibriums would change for the better if public goods were no longer hobbled by our current system.
Let's put this differently. Most people understand that socialism fails. But unfortunately most people really don't understand that socialism doesn't just fail with private goods... it also fails with public goods. If people understood this then they would understand the problem with having a mixed economy. So because our system is a mixed economy... and socialism fails just as much with public goods as it does with private goods... it's a given that public goods are inefficiently allocated. Which means that private goods are also inefficiently allocated. Therefore, if we put public goods on equal footing with private goods there would be a beneficial adjustment of most, if not all, equilibriums. We'd have far more peace, progress and prosperity.
So is the invisible hand defective? Do markets fail? It's easy to blame recessions, depressions and multi-agent traps on self-interest. For a good example of this just watch the documentary Boom Bust Boom on Netflix. Here's a screenshot...
Blaming these problems on self-interest is like dropping a boulder onto a busy freeway and then blaming the resulting pileup on people's natural desire to avoid hitting the boulder. It's eternally frustrating because the boulder is so obviously the problem but so few people admit or acknowledge that it's the problem. Anyways, I'm sure that there's a much better metaphor. The point is that the invisible hand needs a level playing field. Public goods need to be on the same level as private goods. Markets have to be structured in such a way that there is just as much incentive for people to spend their money on public goods as there is for people to spend their money on private goods. When markets are structured accordingly, self-interest will align with society-interest.
Saturday, May 7, 2016
Exceptions To Socialism's Shortcomings
Reply to reply: Is Economic Influence Mutually Exclusive?
********************************************
Do you want the government to supply donuts? Nope? Why not? Because you believe that impersonal shoppers (government planners (congresspeople)) would get the supply of donuts wrong. Why do you believe that impersonal shoppers would get the supply of donuts wrong? Because you believe that impersonal shoppers couldn't possibly know whether you want more or less donuts at any given time.
Do you want the government to supply defense? Yup. Why? Because you believe that impersonal shoppers will get the supply of defense right. Why do you believe that impersonal shoppers will get the supply of defense right? Because you believe that impersonal shoppers can know whether you want more or less defense at any given time.
Therefore... you believe that impersonal shoppers are partially omniscient. They can't read your mind when it comes to donuts... but they can read your mind when it comes to defense.
Of course... donuts and defense are different types of goods. Donuts are a private good while defense is a public good. Therefore... you believe that impersonal shoppers can't read your mind when it comes to private goods... but they can read your mind when it comes to public goods.
Except... let me guess... as a libertarian you don't want the government to supply ALL public goods... do you? The standard libertarian response for the proper scope of government is.... defense, courts and police.
Therefore... you believe that impersonal shoppers...
A. can't read your mind when it comes to private goods
B. can't read your mind when it comes to most public goods
C. can read your mind when it comes to defense, courts and police
Coincidentally, this tweet showed up in my feed today...
Humanity is never going to fully comprehend or grasp this rule as long as there are people such as yourself who believe that defense, police and courts are exceptions to this rule.
********************************************
Do you want the government to supply donuts? Nope? Why not? Because you believe that impersonal shoppers (government planners (congresspeople)) would get the supply of donuts wrong. Why do you believe that impersonal shoppers would get the supply of donuts wrong? Because you believe that impersonal shoppers couldn't possibly know whether you want more or less donuts at any given time.
Do you want the government to supply defense? Yup. Why? Because you believe that impersonal shoppers will get the supply of defense right. Why do you believe that impersonal shoppers will get the supply of defense right? Because you believe that impersonal shoppers can know whether you want more or less defense at any given time.
Therefore... you believe that impersonal shoppers are partially omniscient. They can't read your mind when it comes to donuts... but they can read your mind when it comes to defense.
Of course... donuts and defense are different types of goods. Donuts are a private good while defense is a public good. Therefore... you believe that impersonal shoppers can't read your mind when it comes to private goods... but they can read your mind when it comes to public goods.
Except... let me guess... as a libertarian you don't want the government to supply ALL public goods... do you? The standard libertarian response for the proper scope of government is.... defense, courts and police.
Therefore... you believe that impersonal shoppers...
A. can't read your mind when it comes to private goods
B. can't read your mind when it comes to most public goods
C. can read your mind when it comes to defense, courts and police
Coincidentally, this tweet showed up in my feed today...
Humanity did not fall short of the ideals of socialism, socialism fell short of the demands of humanity. - @PeterBoettke
Humanity is never going to fully comprehend or grasp this rule as long as there are people such as yourself who believe that defense, police and courts are exceptions to this rule.
I wonder how much progress could be made in political economy if the best and the brightest among economists, such as Raj Chetty, would take seriously the admonition of Hayek, Buchanan, and Elinor Ostrom that the assumptions of omniscience and benevolence must be rejected if we are going to make progress and develop a robust theory of political economy. - Peter Boettke, AEA Richard T. Ely Lecture --- Raj Chetty, "Behavioral Economics and Public Policy"
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Persuading Puppets Is Pointless
My reply to Adam Gurri
***********************************************
You're correct that it's a huge leap! But you really don't need to leap the chasm... there's a perfectly functional bridge. It's called "diversity". Markets are inherently diverse. Let's say that an asteroid destroys our planet tomorrow. Who do we blame for humanity's extinction? Alex Tabarrok? Nope...
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/06/planetary-defense-is-a-public-good.html
Maybe we blame Mark Lutter? Nope...
"With humanity concentrated on earth, an errant asteroid could wipe out civilization. Nuclear war could end human life. Rogue AI could eliminate humanity. Colonizing other planets limits the destructive potential of such threats. If life on earth is wiped out, Mars would still thrive. Private space exploration literally has the potential to save humanity."
https://medium.com/@marklutter/building-autonomous-for-profit-cities-4533f668a591#.kvfru0rm2
Of course we don't blame these two individuals. Do we blame the market then? Well no... contrary to Lutter's argument for private space exploration... we're talking about a public good here. Therefore... the not-market would be entirely to blame for human extinction. Centralization, by definition, limits the variety of the very different paths that individuals would be naturally inclined and incentivized to take. Centralization, by definition, puts far too many eggs in far too few baskets.
If people were free to choose where their taxes go then we would have a market in the public sector. As a result, public goods would be just as diverse as private goods. This is because the demand for ALL goods is inherently diverse. You and I wouldn't put the same exact public goods in our shopping carts just like we don't put the same exact private goods in our shopping carts.
Progress is a function of difference. Sexual reproduction is all about difference and voila! Here we are!
Regarding Schumpeter's "corrections"... any such thing is the logical, but extremely detrimental, consequence of centralization. With the current system there are public "shepherds" who are so confident in their information that they are very eager to limit the natural diversity of markets.
Don't get me wrong... we need rules/regulations to protect diversity. But nearly all of our rules/regulations do the very opposite.
Regarding the physicists... you seem to appreciate the benefit of persuasion. So do I! Persuasion is a function of choice though. Take away people's choices and it becomes entirely unnecessary to persuade them. If people are marionettes... then it's pointless to try and persuade them. If you want marionettes to behave differently... then you're going to have to try and persuade whoever is pulling the strings.
Allowing people to choose where their taxes go would cut all the strings. So we'd have infinitely more persuasion than we currently have.
For me it's not difficult to cleanly separate not-market factors from market factors. You're an intelligent guy. And you can't choose where your taxes go. If the economy struggles in any way... then it's because your difference (creativity/intelligence/knowledge/foresight) and Tabarrok's difference and Lutter's difference and the difference of millions and millions of other people has been and continues to be squandered to a significant extent.
Our system needs to be less like Hitler and more like Churchill...
"Since the Germans drove the Jews out and lowered their technical standards, our science is definitely ahead of theirs." - Winston Churchill
***********************************************
You're correct that it's a huge leap! But you really don't need to leap the chasm... there's a perfectly functional bridge. It's called "diversity". Markets are inherently diverse. Let's say that an asteroid destroys our planet tomorrow. Who do we blame for humanity's extinction? Alex Tabarrok? Nope...
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/06/planetary-defense-is-a-public-good.html
Maybe we blame Mark Lutter? Nope...
"With humanity concentrated on earth, an errant asteroid could wipe out civilization. Nuclear war could end human life. Rogue AI could eliminate humanity. Colonizing other planets limits the destructive potential of such threats. If life on earth is wiped out, Mars would still thrive. Private space exploration literally has the potential to save humanity."
https://medium.com/@marklutter/building-autonomous-for-profit-cities-4533f668a591#.kvfru0rm2
Of course we don't blame these two individuals. Do we blame the market then? Well no... contrary to Lutter's argument for private space exploration... we're talking about a public good here. Therefore... the not-market would be entirely to blame for human extinction. Centralization, by definition, limits the variety of the very different paths that individuals would be naturally inclined and incentivized to take. Centralization, by definition, puts far too many eggs in far too few baskets.
If people were free to choose where their taxes go then we would have a market in the public sector. As a result, public goods would be just as diverse as private goods. This is because the demand for ALL goods is inherently diverse. You and I wouldn't put the same exact public goods in our shopping carts just like we don't put the same exact private goods in our shopping carts.
Progress is a function of difference. Sexual reproduction is all about difference and voila! Here we are!
Regarding Schumpeter's "corrections"... any such thing is the logical, but extremely detrimental, consequence of centralization. With the current system there are public "shepherds" who are so confident in their information that they are very eager to limit the natural diversity of markets.
Don't get me wrong... we need rules/regulations to protect diversity. But nearly all of our rules/regulations do the very opposite.
Regarding the physicists... you seem to appreciate the benefit of persuasion. So do I! Persuasion is a function of choice though. Take away people's choices and it becomes entirely unnecessary to persuade them. If people are marionettes... then it's pointless to try and persuade them. If you want marionettes to behave differently... then you're going to have to try and persuade whoever is pulling the strings.
Allowing people to choose where their taxes go would cut all the strings. So we'd have infinitely more persuasion than we currently have.
For me it's not difficult to cleanly separate not-market factors from market factors. You're an intelligent guy. And you can't choose where your taxes go. If the economy struggles in any way... then it's because your difference (creativity/intelligence/knowledge/foresight) and Tabarrok's difference and Lutter's difference and the difference of millions and millions of other people has been and continues to be squandered to a significant extent.
Our system needs to be less like Hitler and more like Churchill...
"Since the Germans drove the Jews out and lowered their technical standards, our science is definitely ahead of theirs." - Winston Churchill
Thursday, January 21, 2016
Overvaluing Frank The Artichoke Farmer's Productivity?
Reply to reply: Are you confident in congress's competence?
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Let's say that I'm hungry. I go to the farmer's market where I find Frank the farmer selling artichokes. Which is great because I really love artichokes! What do you think happens next? Do you think I simply hand Frank my money in exchange for his artichokes? Of course not. First I look at the prices... and if the prices seem reasonable... then I carefully inspect the artichokes. If I'm happy with the quality of the artichokes... I pick out the best ones and put my money into Frank's hand.
This is where you, the well-intentioned liberal economist, step in. Before Frank can put the $3 dollars that I gave him into his pocket... you take $1 dollar out of Frank's hand. Except, since I'm the one who just gave him that money... you essentially took the money out of my hand. What do you do with the $1 dollar that you took out of my hand? You put it in the hands of Frank's employees.
The thing is... the money that I gave Frank was my valuation of his productivity. But, evidently, you're certain that I overvalued Frank's productivity. Not only are you certain that I overvalued Frank's productivity... but you're also certain that I undervalued his employees' productivity.
I overvalued Frank's productivity? I undervalued his employees' productivity?
First... who in the world are you to say that I've overvalued Frank's productivity? Are you my son? Are you my father? Are you my brother? Are you my best friend? Are you my lover? Are you the customer waiting behind me? Of course not! You're some random economist who doesn't even know me or Frank. Yet, despite the fact that you don't know me or Frank... you're stupidly certain that I overvalued his productivity.
Second... I didn't even valuate the productivity of Frank's employees. Why in the world would I valuate their productivity? I'm not their boss... Frank is! He's the one who employs them. I don't employ them. I don't even know them. I have absolutely no idea whether they are the most productive workers in the world or the least productive workers in the world. Given that I'm entirely clueless about the productivity of Frank's employees... it would be utterly nonsensical and completely detrimental for me to even try and valuate their productivity. Yet... you're stupidly certain that I undervalued Frank's employees.
This isn't what you're telling me of course. What you're telling me is that I'm not thinking things through. From your perspective... the money that you took from my hands and put into the hands of Frank's employees will be quickly spent. How will it be spent? It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter if the money isn't spent on producing a greater abundance of artichokes... what matters is that the money will be spent on something. Which is a good thing because any and all spending will "enhance" the economy. As if the reason that the sluggish economy needs stimulation has absolutely nothing to do with your mindless meddling and everything to do with inadequate demand.
When you read the Bible story about the prodigal son... does it make you happy or sad when he quickly squanders his inheritance?
Does it make you happy or sad that Esau sold his inheritance to Jacob for a bowl of soup?
Does it make you happy or sad when lottery winners quickly squander their new found wealth?
Does it make you happy or sad when natural disasters force people to spend their savings in order to rebuild their lives?
Does it make you happy or sad when you forget to back-up your work and a disaster forces you to start all over again?
Does Adam Smith make you happy or sad?
Does Ludwig von Mises make you happy or sad?
Does Ludwig Lachmann make you happy or sad?
Does J.B. Say make you happy or sad?
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You are making erroneous conclusions because you do not think through the economic impact that follows, when low-end salaries are enhanced. And which is not at all the same consequence when high-end salaries are increased - whereupon people simply bank their additional salaries (or speculate with the money), which does nothing intrinsically to enhance the economy. - Lafayette
Let's say that I'm hungry. I go to the farmer's market where I find Frank the farmer selling artichokes. Which is great because I really love artichokes! What do you think happens next? Do you think I simply hand Frank my money in exchange for his artichokes? Of course not. First I look at the prices... and if the prices seem reasonable... then I carefully inspect the artichokes. If I'm happy with the quality of the artichokes... I pick out the best ones and put my money into Frank's hand.
This is where you, the well-intentioned liberal economist, step in. Before Frank can put the $3 dollars that I gave him into his pocket... you take $1 dollar out of Frank's hand. Except, since I'm the one who just gave him that money... you essentially took the money out of my hand. What do you do with the $1 dollar that you took out of my hand? You put it in the hands of Frank's employees.
The thing is... the money that I gave Frank was my valuation of his productivity. But, evidently, you're certain that I overvalued Frank's productivity. Not only are you certain that I overvalued Frank's productivity... but you're also certain that I undervalued his employees' productivity.
I overvalued Frank's productivity? I undervalued his employees' productivity?
First... who in the world are you to say that I've overvalued Frank's productivity? Are you my son? Are you my father? Are you my brother? Are you my best friend? Are you my lover? Are you the customer waiting behind me? Of course not! You're some random economist who doesn't even know me or Frank. Yet, despite the fact that you don't know me or Frank... you're stupidly certain that I overvalued his productivity.
Second... I didn't even valuate the productivity of Frank's employees. Why in the world would I valuate their productivity? I'm not their boss... Frank is! He's the one who employs them. I don't employ them. I don't even know them. I have absolutely no idea whether they are the most productive workers in the world or the least productive workers in the world. Given that I'm entirely clueless about the productivity of Frank's employees... it would be utterly nonsensical and completely detrimental for me to even try and valuate their productivity. Yet... you're stupidly certain that I undervalued Frank's employees.
This isn't what you're telling me of course. What you're telling me is that I'm not thinking things through. From your perspective... the money that you took from my hands and put into the hands of Frank's employees will be quickly spent. How will it be spent? It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter if the money isn't spent on producing a greater abundance of artichokes... what matters is that the money will be spent on something. Which is a good thing because any and all spending will "enhance" the economy. As if the reason that the sluggish economy needs stimulation has absolutely nothing to do with your mindless meddling and everything to do with inadequate demand.
When you read the Bible story about the prodigal son... does it make you happy or sad when he quickly squanders his inheritance?
Does it make you happy or sad that Esau sold his inheritance to Jacob for a bowl of soup?
Does it make you happy or sad when lottery winners quickly squander their new found wealth?
Does it make you happy or sad when natural disasters force people to spend their savings in order to rebuild their lives?
Does it make you happy or sad when you forget to back-up your work and a disaster forces you to start all over again?
Does Adam Smith make you happy or sad?
Capitals are increased by parsimony, and diminished by prodigality and misconduct. - Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations
Does Ludwig von Mises make you happy or sad?
Now one of the main functions of profits is to shift the control of capital to those who know how to employ it in the best possible way for the satisfaction of the public. The more profits a man earns, the greater his wealth consequently becomes, the more influential does he become in the conduct of business affairs. Profit and loss are the instruments by means of which the consumers pass the direction of production activities into the hands of those who are best fit to serve them. Whatever is undertaken to curtail or to confiscate profits impairs this function. The result of such measures is to loosen the grip the consumers hold over the course of production. The economic machine becomes, from the point of view of the people, less efficient and less responsive. - Ludwig von Mises, Planning for Freedom
Does Ludwig Lachmann make you happy or sad?
Moreover, what is a resource today may cease to be one tomorrow, while what is a valueless object today may become valuable tomorrow. The resource status of material objects is therefore always problematical and depends to some extent on foresight. An object constitutes wealth only if it is a source of an income stream. The value of the object to the owner, actual or potential, reflects at any moment its expected income-yielding capacity. This, in its turn, will depend on the uses to which the object can be turned. The mere ownership of objects, therefore, does not necessarily confer wealth; it is their successful use which confers it. Not ownership but use of resources is the source of income and wealth. — Ludwig Lachmann, The Market Economy and the Distribution of Wealth
Does J.B. Say make you happy or sad?
Taxes upon transfer, besides the mischief of pressing upon capital, are a clog to the circulation of property. But, has the public any interest in its free circulation? So long as the object is in existence, is it not as well placed in one hand as in another? Certainly not. The public has a perpetual interest in the utmost possible freedom of its circulation; because by that means it is most likely to get into the hands of those, that can make the most of it. Why does one man sell his land? But because he thinks he can lay out the value to more advantage in some channel of productive industry. And why does another buy it? But because he wishes to invest a capital, that is lying idle, or less productively vested; or because he thinks it capable of improvement. The transfer tends to augment the national income, because it tends to augment the income of the two contracting parties. If they be deterred by the expenses of the transfer, those expenses will have prevented this probable increase of the national income. — J.B. Say, A Treatise on Political Economy
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